What am I doing with A9s? [Archive] - Two Plus Two Older Archives

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shant

08-18-2005, 08:17 PM

BB is a TAG over hundreds of hands. 17/9 AF: 3

Party Poker 15/30 Hold'em (10 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is SB with 9/images/graemlins/heart.gif, A/images/graemlins/heart.gif. CO posts a blind of $15.
6 folds, CO (poster) checks, 1 fold, Hero raises, BB 3-bets, CO folds, Hero calls.

Flop: (7 SB) 9/images/graemlins/spade.gif, J/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 7/images/graemlins/spade.gif (2 players)
Hero checks, BB bets, Hero calls.

Turn: (4.50 BB) T/images/graemlins/spade.gif (2 players)
I checks, BB checks.

I was check-folding here.

River: (4.50 BB) K/images/graemlins/diamond.gif (2 players)
I _________ ?

ArturiusX

08-18-2005, 08:19 PM

Im check-raise that flop.

A_C_Slater

08-18-2005, 08:19 PM

Check/fold.

toss

08-18-2005, 08:22 PM

Checkfold. You're beaten by any AK, AQ, AJ, KQ, an 8 and so on.

Brunger

08-18-2005, 08:23 PM

Stick with the plan.

soweak.

08-18-2005, 08:23 PM

I've been reconsidering this line for5 minutes, and I think check/fold here is in order. Unless for some reason you think he is capable of overplaying trash here, or is generally weak/tight after the flop theres not much we can beat (bluffing AQ is about it). however raising A9s there with so much dead money is automatic.

shant

08-18-2005, 08:23 PM

OK, good, that's what I did.

A_C_Slater

08-18-2005, 08:25 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Checkfold. You're beaten by any AK, AQ, AJ, KQ, an 8 and so on.

[/ QUOTE ]

Plus, it would be pretty ballsy, and thus unlikely of him to bet any hand you have beat on this board, unless he's a maniac.

27offsooot

08-18-2005, 08:25 PM

Is there any hand u beat? c/f

Nick C

08-18-2005, 08:28 PM

Ugh, this is hard.

I mean, he could have a hand like 66 that he decided to give up with, after getting called on the flop.

But, man, some hands he could have been checking with outs on the turn just improved. And some of those hands were ahead of you already anyway. Plus, he's played with you a lot and probably respects your play and there is some chance that he was trapping.

Tough spot, but I think I'd check-fold.

And I'm not really sure if that's best or not.

private joker

08-18-2005, 08:31 PM

I disagree with everyone. I like a bet/fold. If the turn card scared him that much, maybe a river bet would. I think you have fold equity here (it's clearly not a value bet), because I think he folds a non-K, non-flush hand 1/5 times. It's a small pot and he might give up. It's close -- there's an argument to be made that he only folds 15% of the time, but if you can reasonably guess he folds 20% of the time, you're getting the right price.

Hmmm...

Nah, never mind. He doesn't fold 20% of the time. His 3-betting range includes so many hands that the K just hit. He'll call.

Check-fold this river.

private joker

08-18-2005, 08:34 PM

Well, now I'm reevaluating again. Your SB raise against a poster looks like a steal, and his 3-bet could be a resteal with junk. Maybe you do have the best hand, and maybe he has a hand like Tx that will fold to a bet because of the small pot.

shant

08-18-2005, 08:35 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Well, now I'm reevaluating again. Your SB raise against a poster looks like a steal, and his 3-bet could be a resteal with junk. Maybe you do have the best hand, and maybe he has a hand like Tx that will fold to a bet because of the small pot.

[/ QUOTE ]
This is why I posted it. I was wondering if there was any value in this "bluff" type bet.

A_C_Slater

08-18-2005, 08:38 PM

If he had AT he would have bet the turn, but I agree that he would fold a T enough to make a river bet profitable. I don't think he's 3betting with any lesser ten.

oreogod

08-18-2005, 08:42 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Im check-raise that flop.

[/ QUOTE ]

and w/ this guys stats, c/f the river.

Nick C

08-18-2005, 08:44 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Well, now I'm reevaluating again. Your SB raise against a poster looks like a steal, and his 3-bet could be a resteal with junk. Maybe you do have the best hand, and maybe he has a hand like Tx that will fold to a bet because of the small pot.

[/ QUOTE ]
This is why I posted it. I was wondering if there was any value in this "bluff" type bet.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't know the 15/30, but I'm thinking that if he folds, you probably had him beat anyway.

I mean, sure, he could have been 3-betting light preflop, but how light is he really going to go? I suspect that any better hand he checked on the turn will go ahead and at least call now.

I think he needed to be making a pretty big play preflop for a bet to be worth the bother.

Well, except that a bet would perhaps at least reduce the chances of getting bluffed out by a hand like 55 or A6o. If there's also some chance of folding out a better hand, then that could make a bet-fold the way to go, but I'm having trouble seeing it.

SomethingClever

08-18-2005, 08:48 PM

Nothing to say about the thread.

Your location is heaven.

damaniac

08-18-2005, 09:01 PM

Yeah, I think that he checked the turn and invited a river bluff indicates that, if he has a pair or some other legit hand, he's not folding on the river. I suspect you'd have more fold equity if you bet into him on the river after he bet the turn (although i wouldn't hold my breath, as that also smacks of desperation after a missed draw).

pokerjunky

08-18-2005, 09:08 PM

Why were you check folding the turn?

weevil

08-18-2005, 09:16 PM

[ QUOTE ]
BB is a TAG over hundreds of hands. 17/9 AF: 3

Party Poker 15/30 Hold'em (10 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is SB with 9/images/graemlins/heart.gif, A/images/graemlins/heart.gif. CO posts a blind of $15.
6 folds, CO (poster) checks, 1 fold, Hero raises, BB 3-bets, CO folds, Hero calls.

Flop: (7 SB) 9/images/graemlins/spade.gif, J/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 7/images/graemlins/spade.gif (2 players)
Hero checks, BB bets, Hero calls.

Turn: (4.50 BB) T/images/graemlins/spade.gif (2 players)
I checks, BB checks.

I was check-folding here.

River: (4.50 BB) K/images/graemlins/diamond.gif (2 players)
I _________ ?

[/ QUOTE ]

I'd go for the flop c/r. As it is, given the flop, I think I bet/fold the turn . He'll raise if he think's you're trying to steal, but he could have lots of redraws on you, overs and high spades, and he'll have a real hand a significant amount of the time too, maybe looking for a free showdown. Your chances of improving are small, and it's not that big a pot.

Depends on how tricky and aggro he is. A lot of players will call with overs or even a high pp without a spade, and check the river. So against a lot of players bet/fold seems like the best line on the turn.

EDIT, I like this play more in the light of this being a possibly steal situation for BB, since he might put you on trying to isolate the CO. So he has a larger range of hands here, many of which you beat.

private joker

08-18-2005, 09:23 PM

[ QUOTE ]

I don't know the 15/30, but I'm thinking that if he folds, you probably had him beat anyway.

[/ QUOTE ]

There's a problem with this thinking. There are hands that he might fold but would bet with if checked to. Even hands we beat. Since we're folding if we check, then it's easy for anyone to push us off the hand. All we've done post-flop is check-call, check, check. With that kind of weakness, ace-high will bet this river a lot.

Nick C

08-18-2005, 09:57 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

I don't know the 15/30, but I'm thinking that if he folds, you probably had him beat anyway.

[/ QUOTE ]

There's a problem with this thinking. There are hands that he might fold but would bet with if checked to. Even hands we beat. Since we're folding if we check, then it's easy for anyone to push us off the hand. All we've done post-flop is check-call, check, check. With that kind of weakness, ace-high will bet this river a lot.

[/ QUOTE ]

I know what you're saying, but if he won't fold a better hand sometimes (or call with a worse one), then all we're really doing by betting is sacrificing whatever information we'll get from BB's bet (if he makes it).

I'll grant that perhaps there could be enough fold equity and value-bet equity to swing things (the value-bet part seems pretty dubious to me, though, on this board).

But, okay, here's an example. There are 4.5 bets in the pot. Let's say he has a better hand 80 out of 100 times (that he won't fold). And he has a worse hand 20 times and will never call with it. Let's also say he bets his better hands when checked to 60 of those 80 times that he's winning and also fires a bluff 10 times when he doesn't have us beat. Well, we can't call profitably then. (He's bluffing with pretty good frequency, and we can't quite call.) But if we bet 100 times, we lose 80 bets doing this, the times we get called. And we win the pot and 90 bets total when we don't get called. That nets us 10 bets.

If we check-fold, we win the pot 10 times, which nets us 45 bets. We do sacrifice the pot occasionally, but we also come out ahead versus bet-folding, overall.

If we'll never fold a better hand or get called by a worse one, we're better off just check-folding or check-calling (depending on how often we think he'll bluff).

chief444

08-18-2005, 10:03 PM

I'm doing something other than check/calling this flop. His 3-betting range is pretty big here given the situation (one poster and you raise from the SB) and you're in pretty good shape with middle pair top kicker on a 79J board I think.

I'd check/fold the river however the way it played out. With the T and K falling you're only ahead of possibly 66 or worse if he 3-bets that preflop. And he'll probably check that behind on the river anyway.