Low buyin bubble quiz (1 question!)

[Isura]

I'm too lazy to make a decent quiz like the posters did back in the day, but here goes. Looking through some HHs and thought this was interesting. Assume the big stack is your typical bad $20 player. He's not abusing the table with his chip position, and the minraise is typical as opposed to being tricky. Offcourse assume you have no FE by pushing.



***** Hand History for Game 2550835345 *****
NL Texas Hold'em $20 Buy-in + $2 Entry Fee Trny:14919846 Level:6 Blinds(100/200) - Wednesday, August 17, 14:02:20 EDT 2005
Table Table 14255 (Real Money)
Seat 8 is the button
Total number of players : 4
Seat 2: Low_Chicago ( $1720 )
Seat 3: TomKat1 ( $3840 )
Seat 8: OurHero( $898 )
Seat 9: Curgan ( $1542 )
Trny:14919846 Level:6
Blinds(100/200)
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to OurHero [ Qs Ah ]
TomKat1 raises [400].
>You have options at Table 13802 Table!.
>You have options at Table 14262 Table!.
>You have options at Table 13802 Table!.
>You have options at Table 14262 Table!.
OurHero ?

Edit: He's not minraising with any 2. Just reasonable hands (top 20% or whatever).

[inyaface]

Unless you give me some amazing reasons why folding is correct I don't think I ever fold this.

[nate_king1]

Trick question?

[ChoicestHops]

Insta-push.

[Isura]

[ QUOTE ]
Trick question?

[/ QUOTE ]

No, but my initial answer might be wrong. I loaded this into ICM, but assuming he pushes (same as raising 900 to us), which mimicks the 0 FE we have.

[Xenod]

You're the shortstack with large blinds and a great hand. I don't see how you could make a good argument for not pushing here. Even if he calls 100% of the time at the worst you're in a race situation with an extra 300 in the pot from the blind.

[Shillx]

No brainer push. You can afford to play a pot as a 55/45 favorite in this spot since you are on the short stack. This is a good enough spot to try and double through.

Brad

Edit - For some reason I thought that you were in the BB. This is actually pretty close but I would push it at game speed. It is a slight mistake at worst.

[Isura]

My answer in white: (this should start something good)

<font color="white">I thought for a while and folded. ICM says that calling is break even if he's raising top 25%, and that even is probably too loose. Let's talk more about bubble play guys. </font>

[ldavidjm]

One of those times ICM goes completely against my instincts...

I really don't know what to think of this. I can't imagine folding AQ when I'm that short stacked...

[rvg72]

[ QUOTE ]
My answer in white: (this should start something good)

<font color="white">I thought for a while and folded. ICM says that calling is break even if he's raising top 25%, and that even is probably too loose. Let's talk more about bubble play guys. </font>

[/ QUOTE ]

This is only true if he calls 100% of the time when you push back at him... When you factor in even a 10% fold rate (which is probably too low) then you are clearly ahead.

rvg

[Shillx]

He is not folding for 500 more. I would be shocked if he folded one time in a thousand here.

Brad

[rvg72]

[ QUOTE ]
He is not folding for 500 more. I would be shocked if he folded one time in a thousand here.

[/ QUOTE ]

You would definately be wrong - 10% would be about right. There is at least a 10% chance he min raised with a weak hand and would not want to 1) double up the short stack and 2) ruin his table image when it goes to ITM.

rvg

[ChuckNorris]

Hero is pretty short stacked here, and will be in the blinds in a moment which won't be nice. Could you think that the situation is bad enough to justify a slightly -EV call?

Then again, maybe the situation still isn't that bad, since it's low buy-in, you are not completely crippled and the monster stack isn't taking advantage of their stack.

All I know is that I would always call no matter what the buy-in, and am pretty certain that it is also correct in the $50+5's which I play.

[ZBTHorton]

I'd say he folds...MAYBE 5% of the time. 1 in 1000 seems a bit off though.

[rvg72]

[ QUOTE ]
I'd say he folds...MAYBE 5% of the time. 1 in 1000 seems a bit off though.

[/ QUOTE ]

The reason I can say 10% with a fair amount of confidence is that I have looked into this exact type of situation in my own collection of about 2000 SNG histories (not by hand obviously) but even if you take 5%, my point is that this 5% chance that you gain 700 chips changes the ICM results and makes this a push

edit: well still obviously dependant on his hand range to make a min raise. Isura made the disclaimer that you have no fold equity on this hand and if you truly had a 0% chance of making him fold then his calculations would be correct - my point is that there is fold equity (as small as it might be) and that changes the ICM calculations by quite a bit.

rvg

[lastchance]

[ QUOTE ]
My answer in white: (this should start something good)

<font color="white">I thought for a while and folded. ICM says that calling is break even if he's raising top 25%, and that even is probably too loose. Let's talk more about bubble play guys. </font>

[/ QUOTE ]
However, you've got 4x BB. It's definitely worth it to take a -EV play right now because in 2 hands, you're losing over a half your chips.

[fluorescenthippo]

ICM may be wrong here like you say. but in one more obrit almost half our stack could be gone. if we try and double up then we will be right back where we started. AQ is a fine hand to take a chance with now, and you will ususally be ahead.

[flyingmoose]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
My answer in white: (this should start something good)

<font color="white">I thought for a while and folded. ICM says that calling is break even if he's raising top 25%, and that even is probably too loose. Let's talk more about bubble play guys. </font>

[/ QUOTE ]
However, you've got 4x BB. It's definitely worth it to take a -EV play right now because in 2 hands, you're losing over a half your chips.

[/ QUOTE ]

Werd!

[ewing55]

You gotta PUSH!!!

1) You are the super short stack &amp; little FE.
2) AQo is a very good hand.
3) I think you do have a chance of UTG folding.
4) If you fold, you are putting over 30% of your chips in the pot in the next 3 hands, you might as well do it with a good hand.
5) You have t300 of dead money in the pot. (I doubt the blinds will come along if you push unless they have a huge monster.)
6) They are pretty much going to call whatever your hand is, now or later, and you can't afford to wait much longer. What are you waiting for? You are a 60/40 fav over top 25%.

Of course I'm losing $ right &amp; left so what do I know. /images/graemlins/confused.gif

-------------Jeff

[Isura]

[ QUOTE ]

Hero is pretty short stacked here, and will be in the blinds in a moment which won't be nice. Could you think that the situation is bad enough to justify a slightly -EV call?


[/ QUOTE ]

I'm glad someone brought this up. I think taking the slightly -EV play here is probably correct, since doubling up will mean we will have a ton of FE against the other 2 stacks to our left. This is especially true at the $20s since we will certainly play a 8-10bb stack on the bubble much closer to optimally than an average player at this buyin. Doubling up should buy us some HUGELY +EV spots in the button and small blind in subsequent hands.

Now at a higher buyin, I can see the argument for folding. For example, taking the blinds is not so bad since it will be possible to make a +EV call with a marginal type hand against a TAG pushing any 2 later on.

ICM is very good, but there just seems to be some variables that it cannot yet account for.

[ChuckNorris]

[ QUOTE ]
I'm glad someone brought this up. I think taking the slightly -EV play here is probably correct, since doubling up will mean we will have a ton of FE against the other 2 stacks to our left. This is especially true at the $20s since we will certainly play a 8-10bb stack on the bubble much closer to optimally than an average player at this buyin. Doubling up should buy us some HUGELY +EV spots in the button and small blind in subsequent hands.

Now at a higher buyin, I can see the argument for folding. For example, taking the blinds is not so bad since it will be possible to make a +EV call with a marginal type hand against a TAG pushing any 2 later on.

[/ QUOTE ]

The biggest reason for why it would be hard for me to imagine folding AQ here in a higher buy-in is that villains tend to be notably more aggressive than at the low buy-ins, and you are a clearer favorite against their range.

While it is true that doubling up probably gives you greater rewards in a lower buy-in, you also aren't in quite as desperate situation with a short stack with the more passive opponents.

[tigerite]

This may well be -EV but I'm pushing it anyway. Because you won't get a better shot than this.

[SCfuji]

gambool isura, gambool.

[jeffraider]

Folding this is poop! Call and double up!

[pokerdirty]

[ QUOTE ]

***** Hand History for Game 2550835345 *****
NL Texas Hold'em $20 Buy-in + $2 Entry Fee Trny:14919846 Level:6 Blinds(100/200) - Wednesday, August 17, 14:02:20 EDT 2005
Table Table 14255 (Real Money)
Seat 8 is the button
Total number of players : 4
Seat 2: Low_Chicago ( $1720 )
Seat 3: TomKat1 ( $3840 )
Seat 8: OurHero( $898 )
Seat 9: Curgan ( $1542 )
Trny:14919846 Level:6
Blinds(100/200)
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to OurHero [ Qs Ah ]
TomKat1 raises [400].
&gt;You have options at Table 13802 Table!.
&gt;You have options at Table 14262 Table!.
&gt;You have options at Table 13802 Table!.
&gt;You have options at Table 14262 Table!.
OurHero ?


[/ QUOTE ]

If you don't push here, what are you waiting for? I'm much rather take my chances against some minraising n00b with AQo, than push my stack in with 83 next hand.