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08-18-2005, 05:17 PM
I found a odds handbook on the Internet where it shows the "% probability of having the best hand by number of players in the game." For example:

66:
2 player - 63.3, 3 player - 43.2, 4 player - 31.5, 5 player - 24.5, 6 player - 20.1, 7 player - 17.3, 8 player - 15.4, 9 player - 14.0, 10 player - 13.1

This is obviously more useful than just remembering which sklansky group your hole cards belong in, and it might occasionally be used to give the pot odds required to call in late position, or to decide whether to go all in UTG in a no limit game.

However I've realised there are limitations in its use, because normally you would expect people to fold before you. Suppose you are in a limit 10 handed game with say 66 on the button. You've never played with any of the other players before and don't know anything about them or their play. Everyone calls except the cutoff who folds.

The chance that you'll end up with the best hand by the river is increased to above the 10 player average of 13.1% because there is one less player, but not as much as 14% because folded hands tend to be worse than average so the other opponents hands have a slightly higher chance of being good. All I can say is the % is somewhere in the range 13.1-14%, requiring pot odds of somewhere in the range of 6.1:1-6.6:1 to call.

Does anyone else ever use this stat for making pre flop decisions? If so, how much do you adjust the % in the above situation and others? If you think this is a stupid way to make pre flop decisions against unknown players please explain why and what would be a better way.
Thanks.

whodaman
08-18-2005, 05:26 PM
your completely ignoring implied odds.

08-18-2005, 05:48 PM
I have ignored the implied odds because I don't know how likely I would be to win even if I hit 3 of a kind on the flop. It would depend on the texture of the flop. I also can't accurately guess how many future bets there will be as the opponents are new.

The effective odds would be about the same; In the given example I would expect the small blind to call after me, but that's going off the point slightly because what I am asking about your starting cards hands won %.