<5 BBs in SB and uber LAG villian

[yabastid]

So villian decided to loose his mind about 2-3 orbits ago pushing an calling allins with all sorts of stuff. His stack rollercoastered with his play and he got involved in most pots. So I'm 99% I'm getting called unless he misclicks. My thinking is that if I wait he'll call no matter what and I don't want someone else to wake up with a monster and go 3 way. My only thought was stack size of second shortie, but I'm thinking I can't wait around for him busting with these blinds. So . . .

***** Hand History for Game 2555796002 *****
NL Texas Hold'em $20 Buy-in + $2 Entry Fee Trny:14945708 Level:5 Blinds(75/150) - Thursday, August 18, 12:50:33 EDT 2005
Table Table 13879 (Real Money)
Seat 1 is the button
Total number of players : 4
Seat 2: yabastid ( $710 )
Seat 5: BadLuck139 ( $2680 )
Seat 7: dlhughley ( $1160 )
Seat 1: zebking ( $3450 )
Trny:14945708 Level:5
Blinds(75/150)
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to yabastid [ Qc 9h ]
dlhughley folds.
zebking folds.
yabastid is all-In [635]

[tigerite]

If he's really calling with 90%+ hands, this is horribly -EV. Even at 60% it's -EV. You should fold this with your read.

Q9o is 55% fav against random hand. Good push.

[45suited]

[ QUOTE ]
If he's really calling with 90%+ hands, this is horribly -EV. Even at 60% it's -EV. You should fold this with your read.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm not being a smart a$$ here tigerite, but you lost me on this one. I'd push Q9o here from the SB even if my cards were face up. This is not even close.

[tigerite]

Have you ICM'd it? I stated specifically, with his read that the BB will call with 90%+ of hands. Even with 60%+ it's -0.3% $EV.

[45suited]

[ QUOTE ]
Have you ICM'd it? I stated specifically, with his read that the BB will call with 90%+ of hands. Even with 60%+ it's -0.3% $EV.

[/ QUOTE ]

I have not ICM'd it... But we are the shortstack and the pot represents 35% of our stack. Even if I knew BB was calling in the dark, there's no way I'm not pushing this. We need to double up. It's not like we're in 3rd and there is a shortstack waiting to bust out.

[tigerite]

Do we? Fast forward to the next hand and UTG is in the BB, with 1010 after posting, and we have ~635. More than enough to get him to fold. We are then about equal with him, and he has to go through SB next hand when we're UTG. He also has the worst position on the table on the bubble - sitting to the right of the big stack.

[FlyWf]

On the face of it this looks like a fold, but on the other hand with him playing sheriff the other shortstack isn't going to get involved without a premium hand and you are going to get blinded out.

I think this is a situation where you aren't going to see a +$EV situation the rest of this tourney, this one isn't too bad. Better to get involved in an even money tossup here thatthan try to double up with 400 chips in an orbit. It's crucial that your double-up puts you over the other shortstack.

[yabastid]

[ QUOTE ]
Have you ICM'd it? I stated specifically, with his read that the BB will call with 90%+ of hands. Even with 60%+ it's -0.3% $EV.

[/ QUOTE ]

Hey, Tiger,

I did and EV was +1.4%. Pretty close. So I am confused here. I don't know what to wait for if villian is seemingly going to play every hand. Against him I have no FE and that's regardless of position. SO, if I wait another 2 hands I have to hope that I get something better than Q9o and that he will be the only one to call. In three hands I'm back in the blinds and if there's a raise do I defend my BB with any random 2?

[benza13]

[ QUOTE ]
Do we? Fast forward to the next hand and UTG is in the BB, with 1010 after posting, and we have ~635. More than enough to get him to fold. We are then about equal with him, and he has to go through SB next hand when we're UTG. He also has the worst position on the table on the bubble - sitting to the right of the big stack.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yea, but based on his read, the BB, who is SB next hand and acting after us again, will probably call then too, and I would rather push Q9 just into him now than a random hand next time through 2 people.

[tigerite]

How did you get that value? Using SNGPT/SNA (whatever you call it) even putting villan on 'Maniac' (which is, by the way, only top 22%!) it's only +0.9%. It gets worse from there.

[yabastid]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Do we? Fast forward to the next hand and UTG is in the BB, with 1010 after posting, and we have ~635. More than enough to get him to fold. We are then about equal with him, and he has to go through SB next hand when we're UTG. He also has the worst position on the table on the bubble - sitting to the right of the big stack.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yea, but based on his read, the BB, who is SB next hand and acting after us again, will probably call then too, and I would rather push Q9 just into him now than a random hand next time through 2 people.

[/ QUOTE ]

That is exactly what I was thinking before I pushed.

[45suited]

[ QUOTE ]
Do we? Fast forward to the next hand and UTG is in the BB, with 1010 after posting, and we have ~635. More than enough to get him to fold.

[/ QUOTE ]

You raise a good point, as always, but you still have the supposedly super loose bigger stack in the SB to go through when you push. Not to mention the fact that the bigstack has to oblige us and fold the next hand as well. In this case, we have only ONE player to worry about and we have an above average hand.

[tigerite]

That's a good point, but maybe he'll have cooled off since then, or feel uneasy about pushing into the 1010 stack. Meh, I dunno, if he's really calling any two this is quite a bit -$EV, but I see what you're saying, we might not get a less -$EV opportunity before it's too late.

It's an interesting one.

[FlyWf]

You might get the BB to fold, but the big stack? If he's calling on this hand 99% of the time why wouldn't he call next hand?
And with 4 BB you're pricing the BB into calling with a pretty wide range.

[ZeroPointMachine]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Have you ICM'd it? I stated specifically, with his read that the BB will call with 90%+ of hands. Even with 60%+ it's -0.3% $EV.

[/ QUOTE ]

Hey, Tiger,

I did and EV was +1.4%. Pretty close. So I am confused here. I don't know what to wait for if villian is seemingly going to play every hand. Against him I have no FE and that's regardless of position. SO, if I wait another 2 hands I have to hope that I get something better than Q9o and that he will be the only one to call. In three hands I'm back in the blinds and if there's a raise do I defend my BB with any random 2?

[/ QUOTE ]

Okay, somebody explain why these ICM numbers are so far apart. I'm at work and can't run it. I'm guessing that this is an auto push and that +1.4% is correct.

[tigerite]

I believe it's because I have the discount for SB/BB equity modelling on. I took that off, and it's now a +0.2% $EV push, if he's calling top 60%.

[yabastid]

[ QUOTE ]
How did you get that value? Using SNGPT/SNA (whatever you call it) even putting villan on 'Maniac' (which is, by the way, only top 22%!) it's only +0.9%. It gets worse from there .

[/ QUOTE ]

I think it gets better from there if it really is any 2.

I made him a maniac and got 1.4%- dunno. Anyway, I really think I want him calling here. I don't know what other chance I'm gonna have to double through to have any shot at this thing. I think if my read is correct that he's calling ANY 2 then, not only is this a push, but I push and hope he calls.

[tigerite]

It doesn't, because it's the bubble. Try putting 100% or * on SGA and you'll see what I mean. Yeah, Maniac without the Equity for SB/BB gives 1.4% but that's only 22%, he's going to call far more than that, according to your description.

[adanthar]

The downside of having an ICM calc is that people get too reliant on it and stop thinking.

Just look at this situation on its face - of course it's a fold. You don't even need to glance at the calculator for that if he's push/calling any two; don't you want him to get into it with the big stack next hand?

[yabastid]

[ QUOTE ]
The downside of having an ICM calc is that people get too reliant on it and stop thinking.

Just look at this situation on its face - of course it's a fold. You don't even need to glance at the calculator for that if he's push/calling any two; don't you want him to get into it with the big stack next hand?

[/ QUOTE ]

Why would the big stack get involved next hand?

[adanthar]

Rephrasing that: 'do something stupid like'

edit: What I mean is that you don't need to do a gigantic calculation. You have a 55% chance to double up to third place and a 45% chance of busting. There is a &gt;45% chance that with some moron pushing/calling every hand, something you like will happen 1 of the next 3 hands, so you fold. I don't get why this is difficult.

[microbet]

[ QUOTE ]
The downside of having an ICM calc is that people get too reliant on it and stop thinking.

[/ QUOTE ]

Seems like the ICM calc is working fine. I didn't do the calcs, but Tigerite keeps plugging things in and coming up with a fold.

People just need to think about what the ranges are, rather than always using the shortcut buttons. Eastbay might say something like "Try not putting garbage into it."

[yabastid]

[ QUOTE ]
Rephrasing that: 'do something stupid like'

edit: What I mean is that you don't need to do a gigantic calculation. You have a 55% chance to double up to third place and a 45% chance of busting. There is a &gt;45% chance that with some moron pushing/calling every hand, something you like will happen 1 of the next 3 hands, so you fold. I don't get why this is difficult.

[/ QUOTE ]

That's assuming every hand will be only against him. Am I placing too much weight in not wanting to risk getting called by him and the bigstack in the next couple of hands? And if so, why?

[yabastid]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
The downside of having an ICM calc is that people get too reliant on it and stop thinking.

[/ QUOTE ]

Seems like the ICM calc is working fine. I didn't do the calcs, but Tigerite keeps plugging things in and coming up with a fold.

People just need to think about what the ranges are, rather than always using the shortcut buttons. Eastbay might say something like "Try not putting garbage into it."

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah, I didn't do any calculations, it was more of: will I get a better opportunity 4 handed with this guy always in a pot.

[ZeroPointMachine]

[ QUOTE ]
edit: What I mean is that you don't need to do a gigantic calculation. You have a 55% chance to double up to third place and a 45% chance of busting.

[/ QUOTE ]

Okay, I follow you so far....

[ QUOTE ]
There is a &gt;45% chance that with some moron pushing/calling every hand, something you like will happen 1 of the next 3 hands, so you fold. I don't get why this is difficult.

[/ QUOTE ]

..but this seems like a very bold prediction. I'm not saying your wrong. I've been doing quite a bit of thinking lately about "letting the other guys play". I feel sometimes purely ICM plays lead to me being involved in way too many hands. ICM is great for analyzing individual trials, but how many +1% EV plays can you make a game before it catches up with you.

Some of the worst mistakes these players make are from their blinds. I'm beginning to think that by pushing small +EV situations I'm actually preventing them from making major mistakes. At the same time I am constantly exposing myself to risk.

[adanthar]

[ QUOTE ]
..but this seems like a very bold prediction.

[/ QUOTE ]

Well we have two issues here:
1)A moron is playing badly every hand
2)There must be a &gt;15% possibility per hand played that him playing badly will backfire in some way

Add up all the hand ranges that are correct to call him or are correct to push into him. You see how, with 4 people in, the probability of something you like is &gt; 15%?

[45suited]

[ QUOTE ]
The downside of having an ICM calc is that people get too reliant on it and stop thinking.

Just look at this situation on its face - of course it's a

[/ QUOTE ]

Okay, up to this point, I'm thinking that you're seeing things my way (push)....

[ QUOTE ]
fold.

[/ QUOTE ]

[ QUOTE ]
You don't even need to glance at the calculator for that if he's push/calling any two; don't you want him to get into it with the big stack next hand?

[/ QUOTE ]

Only problem is that nowhere in the OP did it say that he was getting into it with the bigstack.

This is how I see this situation. I'm sure that you'll correct me where I'm wrong. I think that at this point, we are so low, and the average player on the 22s is so focused on an ITM finish, that at this point even a loose player is going to tighten up a bit - at least to the point where he's not going to tangle with the bigstack.

We must get ahead of the third stack here. This might be our only chance to get into a heads up pot. We have an above average hand. If we try pushing the next hand (if bigstack folds), then we have two players to worry about after us AND according to the read of the maniac, he's calling next hand too.

Sure, this might be a -EV spot, but it's the best -EV spot that we can hope for. The third stack is going to seriously tighten up and watch us wither away - we must get ahead of him. We cannot fold into 3rd here. (I think that although possible, it's just wishful thinking to hope that the maniac doesn't at least tighten up to the point where he now avoids the bigstack. And no way in hell is the 3rd stack putting chips into a pot without a monster until we bust.) This hand represents the best of alot of bad options. Folding here is almost a give-up play. ICM be damned in this spot.

That's my thoughts here anyway...

[derdo]

Let's think about this by reversing the situation. You are in the big blind and big stack pushes from the small blind. Do you call with Q9?
If he is really calling with 80-90% of the hands, it is very similar to calling a push from the big stack. And I think we all know how no-no it is to call a push from the big stack. I would fold this if I saw the big stack calling almost any hand with something like 9 high 10 high. The fact that Q9 is a fav over a random hand has no relevence here.
He is taking the pusher's and his equity and giving it to other players each time he calls. I would wait until he sends some equity my way.