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View Full Version : Fantasy football draft strategy question - esp. for ESPN vets


nolanfan34
08-18-2005, 01:35 PM
Strategically, for most of the football leagues I've ever been a part of, I've been very strictly a RB/RB with my first two picks kind of guy (and I don't believe this is giving anything away for the upcoming 2+2 draft. /images/graemlins/wink.gif). The times in the past that I've taken a WR with a top pick, I've always felt uncomfortable for the rest of the draft.

Yet this year I'm considering doing just that in a keeper league I'm in with my dad.

Here's why, and I want to hear some thoughts on this from people who have played in ESPN leagues throughout the years. For those who don't know, ESPN's standard setup lets you choose between starting 2 RBs and 2 WR's each week (1 TE is separate from WR's), or 1 RB and 3 WR's.

My dad's league is switching to this format this season. The scoring system in this league is somewhat...unique. Basically, for some reason WR scoring is higher than RB's when they have a good week. They get more points per yards receiving, .5 points per reception, and TD's start at 4 pts. vs. 3 for RB's (with additional pts. per length of TD's, etc).

Last season for example, Muhsin Muhammed led all WR's with 344 pts. and Donald Driver was #10 with 273 pts. The #20 WR was Eddie Kennison with 243.

The leading RB was Tiki Barber with 352 pts. (receiving heavy, as you can see). Rudi Johnson was #10 with 241 pts. The #20 RB was Priest Holmes, who scored 203, albeit due to injury. But the total points of the RB's drops off at a quicker pace.

We keep one player from last season, and I have Shaun Alexander. I have the #5 pick in the draft, and it's not a snake draft, so I have the 5th pick in each round (don't get me started on that).

With this general setup, is it obvious that I should go WR with my first two picks? I think I'll be able to grab two top 10 WR's with the #5 and #17 picks in the draft. Moss is probably the only WR who will be kept (due to that owner's lack of other strong keepers). This means getting a combo like Chad Johnson and Javon Walker, or Marvin Harrison and Joe Horn, is very likely.

Or should I just go a RB like normal, and pick up the best available WR in the 3rd? At RB, guys like Tiki, D. Davis or Deuce, C. Martin or Portis, Julius Jones, J. Lewis or K. Jones, Dillon, Westbrook, Rudi Johnson, are all going to be available.

I know this post is long and rambling, but I'd be interested on hearing from people in ESPN leagues, and their success on going WR heavy when you can start 1 RB and 3 WRs.

SossMan
08-18-2005, 01:41 PM
I have the #5 pick in the draft, and it's not a snake draft, so I have the 5th pick in each round

whaaa? time for a new league

wayabvpar
08-18-2005, 01:44 PM
After the first 3 or 4, the next 25 WRs are almost interchangeable. The same can't be said of RBs. I still think you get more bang for your buck with a top flight RB (especially one that can catch the ball). There will be several WRs drafted late who end up having nice seasons; find a couple of those sleepers and you are in good shape.

nolanfan34
08-18-2005, 01:45 PM
[ QUOTE ]
I have the #5 pick in the draft, and it's not a snake draft, so I have the 5th pick in each round

whaaa? time for a new league

[/ QUOTE ]

I know, I know. The thing is, many of the guys in the league aren't that good, so it's worth putting up with based on that fact alone. Of course my dad, who won the league last year, might not agree since he's drafting 12th in each round. /images/graemlins/blush.gif

pryor15
08-18-2005, 01:47 PM
[ QUOTE ]
I have the #5 pick in the draft, and it's not a snake draft, so I have the 5th pick in each round

whaaa? time for a new league

[/ QUOTE ]

usually in keeper leagues this isn't much of a problem, although he's only keeping 1 guy.

nolanfan34
08-18-2005, 01:48 PM
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I have the #5 pick in the draft, and it's not a snake draft, so I have the 5th pick in each round

whaaa? time for a new league

[/ QUOTE ]

usually in keeper leagues this isn't much of a problem, although he's only keeping 1 guy.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah, I forgot to mention in past years teams have kept 2, sometimes 3 players, so that disadvantage isn't as pronounced once the draft gets rolling.

The Armchair
08-18-2005, 03:13 PM
I think you want to grab an RB at 5. Muhammed and Driver were entirely unpredictable, while Tiki and Rudi could have been top 10 backs in anyone's imagination. What you'll see is that the top 20 RBs will be guys who were either protected, taken in the first two rounds, or well below the radar. On the other hand, many of the top 20 WRs will be sixth round picks.

bugstud
08-18-2005, 06:49 PM
it looks like you need to rank all the RB's by recieving potential, see if any monsters are left, and draft them. I think the WR's will be good enough for you to grab some quality ones in the the next 2 rounds.

BTW, how did tiki outscore LT?

nolanfan34
08-18-2005, 06:54 PM
[ QUOTE ]
BTW, how did tiki outscore LT?

[/ QUOTE ]

More receiving yards, more rushing yards, and rushing TD's from less than 10 yards are only 3 pts, so they're devalued a bit. Tomlinson was #2 though, only behind by 25 pts.

Looking at the stats now, Barber's year was far better statistically than I had remembered...

bugstud
08-18-2005, 07:56 PM
I would desperately try to acquire LT in this format, even if it takes a firstborn.

SossMan
08-18-2005, 08:28 PM
[ QUOTE ]
it looks like you need to rank all the RB's by recieving potential, see if any monsters are left, and draft them. I think the WR's will be good enough for you to grab some quality ones in the the next 2 rounds.

BTW, how did tiki outscore LT?

[/ QUOTE ]

Tiki outscored LT in my main league last year and we have a somewhat standard scoring system (but bonus points for recepts, rec TD's, long TDs, etc...)

Josh W
08-18-2005, 09:34 PM
[ QUOTE ]

Last season for example, Muhsin Muhammed led all WR's with 344 pts. and Donald Driver was #10 with 273 pts. The #20 WR was Eddie Kennison with 243.

The leading RB was Tiki Barber with 352 pts. (receiving heavy, as you can see). Rudi Johnson was #10 with 241 pts. The #20 RB was Priest Holmes, who scored 203, albeit due to injury. But the total points of the RB's drops off at a quicker pace.

[/ QUOTE ]

Doesn't the above information dictate that you take a RB in the first round? The dropoff is much too quick. The difference (RB1 - RB10) is more than the dropoff (WR1 - WR20). To me, that screams take RBs. As armchair said, you can get top 25 WRs late in the draft.

nolanfan34
08-18-2005, 09:38 PM
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

Last season for example, Muhsin Muhammed led all WR's with 344 pts. and Donald Driver was #10 with 273 pts. The #20 WR was Eddie Kennison with 243.

The leading RB was Tiki Barber with 352 pts. (receiving heavy, as you can see). Rudi Johnson was #10 with 241 pts. The #20 RB was Priest Holmes, who scored 203, albeit due to injury. But the total points of the RB's drops off at a quicker pace.

[/ QUOTE ]

Doesn't the above information dictate that you take a RB in the first round? The dropoff is much too quick. The difference (RB1 - RB10) is more than the dropoff (WR1 - WR20). To me, that screams take RBs. As armchair said, you can get top 25 WRs late in the draft.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah, I was thinking that getting two top-10 WR's would be an advantage perhaps, but you're right, I'd need a RB in the 3rd round to pan out perfectly, and I can't count on that happening.