How low can you go...

[Stinkybeaver]

So today I got rid of my poker edge. (I got my first warning today. it was from Party poker and I haven't got any money with them currently so I need not to worry)

But one question has come up to me quite a few times. While using PE I would see several TAGs with VP$IP% around 15 and a few below.

How low can your go with your VP$IP and still be winning atleast 1BB/100..?

I'm at 18,5-19 trying to squize in more marginal hands.

[Uglyowl]

What level of play?

[Stinkybeaver]

I know this also has to due with playing stykes etc. but as I said when using PE i saw a bunch of 15/7/1,8 players. I've since wondered at which rate these guys where winning.

this is from 2/4$

[ianlippert]

I'm a 15 TAG, FWIW I had a win rate of 2.77BB/100 over 25K hands at .5/1

It seems like the average is 18 so I worry about this a lot. But really the difference between a 15 and an 18 is 3 hands out of a 100. And its not hands like the 15 doesnt play ATo, its more situations. So and 18 may call an UTG raise with AJo where as the 15 might not, or something marginal along those lines. I worry about it less as I realise that post flop play is more important as thats where you lose all your money. Also, I 4 table the 1/2 so 15 lets me play better post flop.

[thesharpie]

[ QUOTE ]
And its not hands like the 15 doesnt play ATo, its more situations. So and 18 may call an UTG raise with AJo where as the 15 might not, or something marginal along those lines.

[/ QUOTE ]

What? An 18% (assuming he's a winning player) isn't going to put himself in unprofitable situations like calling an UTG raise with AJo, he's going to be playing more marginally profitable hands usually for 1 SB.

[Erik W]

Those marginal hands can add 20% more profit.

At 1/2 as u play 3BB/100 is rake.
Another 3.5 BB/100 is lost money from the blind positions
so u start -6.5 BB/100.
With all the really good hands say u get up to 2BB/100.
That is 8.5 BB/100 on these hands.

Add some marginal hands that is winners and u might add another 0.5 BB/100. That is really tiny against the 8.5 BB but it is pure winnings ontop of the rest.

That is what u get when u add more hands.
Playing AA is simples. Playing TJo from Button can be an art
and is here u learn how to play good postflop when u r put in difficult situations like a KT2r flop. How much heat can u take with your hand before u let it go. What players are u up against, how to adjust? How do they play their hands?

[sfer]

[ QUOTE ]
So today I got rid of my poker edge. (I got my first warning today. it was from Party poker and I haven't got any money with them currently so I need not to worry)

But one question has come up to me quite a few times. While using PE I would see several TAGs with VP$IP% around 15 and a few below.

How low can your go with your VP$IP and still be winning atleast 1BB/100..?

I'm at 18,5-19 trying to squize in more marginal hands.

[/ QUOTE ]

Thinking situationally is better than targeting stats.

[Stinkybeaver]

Yeah I know not to think on stats...

Anyways I quickly learned not to call UTG raises with AJo so an 18% VP$Ip doesn't have to do stuff like this.

I was just curious since I thought i was being tight.

[toss]

I have a question. Are there types of tables that can actually force your vpip to 16 or lower? My guess would be a table where the only action comes from blind steals.

[ianlippert]

k, mabey AJo calling was a bad example. The point I was trying to make is that a 3% difference in vpip isnt that much. The 3 hands out of 100 are going to be marginal, and are going to be based more on reads. Reads that you cant get multitabling.

[ianlippert]

Question: how can you tell how marginal a hand is? We like to use PT to say AQo has a certain win rate, but we really cant really say for certain that it is a true win rate until we have played a certain number of AQo hands. Everyone talks about 50K+ to know your true win rate, and win rate is a very broad metric. How many times do you have to call an UTG raise with AQo to find out if this is +EV or -EV. I think ppl talk about making these great marginal plays when they really have no idea how marginal they are. Its like the fish who is winning 10BB/hr for 1000 hands and thinks he's a poker god. How can you truely tell? I would argue that you cant.

[detruncate]

Moving from 15-18% VPIP increases the number of hands you play by 20%. That's far from insignificant.

[ianlippert]

but this 3% doesnt campare at all to the top 3%. Here are the top 11% of hands:

AA, KK, QQ, JJ, AKs
TT, AQs, AJs, AK, KQs
ATs, KJs, AQ, 99, QJs, KTs
88, QTs, A9s, AJ, JTs, KQ, A8s, AT

the lowest hand, ATo, on there averages .08 BB according to poker rooms stats. This is an average among all players so its probably a little higher, my PT stats has ATo winning .12BB/hand.

The next 10% is mid suited connectors, small pairs, and medium offsuit hands. I think the 3% difference between a 15 and an 18 is how you play these hands preflop. Mabey I like to have 2 limpers in front before I will limp with 87s whereas the 18 is fine with 1.

Increasing your hands by 20% will not increase your BB/100 by 20%, its not even close to being equal.

[detruncate]

Yes, they're often going to be marginal, though I've been a 15% player and an 18% player and was giving up more clearly profitable situations at 15% than I would have imagined.

Most of the difference is in situational stuff. More blind steal/defense. More isolation with hands that might otherwise be folded. A few more limps in late position. Realizing that I was folding some hands vs a raise in mulitway pots that should be called. My SB play was also a bit too tight.

I agree that you won't increase your winrate by 20%. I was just trying to suggest that the difference between 15% and 18% in practice is larger than you might think when you say things like "it's just 3%".

In my own experience, it wasn't close to just extending what I was doing a little bit and lowering my standards by a limper. It was effectively a total re-evaluation of my pf strategy that grew out of my increasing comfort and (I hope) my growing understanding of the game.

I'm sure you can do just fine with a lower VPIP. However, I've found that mine is increasing over time without much conscious effort to do anything other than improve my recognition of profitable situtations. Whether this translates to better longterm success is yet to be determined, but I'm cautiously optimistic.