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View Full Version : When do rational people look at the Royals and say "due"?

Phishy McFish
08-18-2005, 09:45 AM
OK. So I am not a noob. I understand independent trials, previous results mean nothing in probability, etc. But at what point do smart handicappers start thinking "The Royals HAVE to win at some point?" and start a (I'm going to say it) martingale-esque betting strategy behind them doing so??

Ever?
mrbaseball
08-18-2005, 12:33 PM
When you get an edge to the line. I figured they had an edge this Tuesday. They still lost but since I saw an edge I took it. Next time I see an edge on them I'll take it again.

They will win another game I'm guessing. When they do I hope it's at a value to the line so I'm onboard.
Easy E
08-18-2005, 01:43 PM
and start a (I'm going to say it) martingale-esque betting strategy behind them doing so??

To win one unit? What's the point?

Evaluate each game independant of the streak, then factor the streak in for psychological effects. If you like the bet then, go ahead and make it. Forget the martingale crap
Phishy McFish
08-18-2005, 02:43 PM
Playing the money line, no spread, wouldn't you be able to win more than "one unit"??
craig r
08-18-2005, 02:47 PM
[ QUOTE ]
Playing the money line, no spread, wouldn't you be able to win more than "one unit"??

[/ QUOTE ]

Depends on the line. To tell you the truth, if there is any part of the season to start betting more favorites than usual it is now. But that is topic for another thread. The bottom line is what Mr.Baseball said..if they have value, bet them. In the long run you will win.

craig
08-18-2005, 02:55 PM
never
doughhater
08-21-2005, 05:10 AM
It seems to me that the "smart" handicapper would be more inclined to bet against the Royals seeing as how there will be more public money on the Royals as the streak continues.
Easy E
08-21-2005, 08:46 AM
Fine- betting 30 units to win 4 via martingale doesn't sound like the best use of my bankroll either.
Sadat X
08-24-2005, 02:07 AM
"Let me get this straight, you took all the money you made marketing your name and bet it against the Harlem Globetrotters?"

"I thought the Generals were due!"
dicelumpY2005
08-24-2005, 04:33 AM
Ahh..classic Simpsons quote for those who didn't pick up on it...
sekrah
08-24-2005, 09:12 AM
Only use martingale in sports with winning teams, or against losing teams.

Never bet martingale on a loser like the Royals.. Use Martingale against them.
DougOzzzz
08-24-2005, 09:25 AM
[ QUOTE ]


Never bet martingale

[/ QUOTE ]