60% ATS NFL 12 of 13 years winners 367-261

[Webster]

Now why would I lie with free picks - I have nothing to gain.

Bridgejumper is in its 13th non-tweaked no backtesting year - the weekly 13 year chart is all real time picks.

Book Mark it for reference.

Grinderswarehouse - NOT just another Poker BLOG - OOPS - NFL ATS System (http://www.grinderswarehouse.com)

[craig r]

Will somebody please go through his picks and see if he has really been 60% ATS 12/13 years? I don't have time to. Also, is there any ads on his site of any kind? Or any types of plays one can pay for?

craig

[scalf]

/images/graemlins/grin.gif looks good; i will def look at his top plays; which are rare

tnx

gl

/images/graemlins/tongue.gif /images/graemlins/club.gif /images/graemlins/grin.gif

[craig r]

I am just saying it is so hard, if not impossible, to go 60% 12/13 years. Something isn't right. In fact, I think Fezzik has some sort of challenge that it can't be done. I even think 10K is involved in this challenge. In fact, screw me saying "it is so hard"..i am willing to say "impossible". You would be able to retire. If one was flat betting the return on investment (assuming all lines of -110) for each bet would be 16% (there is a chance I figured that wrong). If someone could really do that I might actually beleive in miracles. And even if his record shows that....it was not monitored..so the records could have easily have been doctored. I am not trying to get on this guys case. I am trying to protect other 2+2ers.

craig

edit for: But, he has no ads that I can find, so I don't know his motivation behind linking it. Maybe I am wrong.--CR

[Webster]

I agree completely - however - I HAVE posted on many forums over the years (including this one) - I HAVE been a tout in College and Pro FB Weekly - I had a 900 number once. I wanted to get out of that bunch of liers who say they can pick 70%. Plus - people HATED my picks and would not play them. They would complain that they can get 70% winners of "popular" games. This picks 60% on UGLY games.

I agree that 60% is hard - however - I don't pick football - I pick against the public and that is a rather stable plaform.

Plus - why would I lie about such a thing anyway. I'll never win a tournament - It's not a system (yes - it's a system) that will win 80% one year and 30% the next - it's just damn boring consistant (as you see).

AND - you will see- the games are just BAD games - the games NOBODY in their right mind would play - if the system picks a game it will lose to the spread by 40 or win by 3. But it wins 60% of the time.

I'm not saying TRUST me - just watch. Everyyear people say the same thing - can't be dne. But every year I prove them wrong.

Book mark it and MAYBE 2006 you will have confidence in it. It's not going away obviously.

[craig r]

[ QUOTE ]
I agree completely - however - I HAVE posted on many forums over the years (including this one) - I HAVE been a tout in College and Pro FB Weekly - I had a 900 number once. I wanted to get out of that bunch of liers who say they can pick 70%. Plus - people HATED my picks and would not play them. They would complain that they can get 70% winners of "popular" games. This picks 60% on UGLY games.

I agree that 60% is hard - however - I don't pick football - I pick against the public and that is a rather stable plaform.

Plus - why would I lie about such a thing anyway. I'll never win a tournament - It's not a system (yes - it's a system) that will win 80% one year and 30% the next - it's just damn boring consistant (as you see).

AND - you will see- the games are just BAD games - the games NOBODY in their right mind would play - if the system picks a game it will lose to the spread by 40 or win by 3. But it wins 60% of the time.

I'm not saying TRUST me - just watch. Everyyear people say the same thing - can't be dne. But every year I prove them wrong.

Book mark it and MAYBE 2006 you will have confidence in it. It's not going away obviously.

[/ QUOTE ]

So, are you selling something or not? That is all I want to know.

craig

p.s. If so, I don't think using the term "tout" is a good idea.

[Webster]

Nope - not selling anything - I WAS a tout 10 years ago (for 1 year) - the stress is AMAZING when you sell picks and 900 numbers are a pain in the ass.

I decided to just post them and have people do what they want with them. Most won't play them anyway. It's like playing the Don't Pass Line LOL.

When everybody is playing Monday night I'm playing the team that has lost 6 in a row and is on the road against The Pats!

LET ME REPEAT - I'm NOT selling anything - even though I challange ANY pay tout to beat me in THE LONG RUN! I have yet to see any of those scammers put together more then 2 good years in a row of REAL W/L.

[Webster]

OH - and don't worry about insulting me. Happens all the time when I bring this up every year and I really do understand completely.

Personally "I'm" not confident in the picks but . it keeps on ticking and from a logical point of view - nothing has changed - football wagerers are still is dumb as they were 13 years ago. Go against the public and your a winner.

We just found a way to do it and it keeps working.

[arod4276]

You contradicted yourself very bad by saying in the same breathe that, Its a system of going against public money.ie high profile teams,and games, and stating you are picking games no one wants to wager on, or has heard of?

[Easy E]

So, you'll be posting the games from this system, starting in Week #4?

At 60%, you should do well in the "3+1 Challenge". Will you be participating?

[Webster]

I did?

1. It's a system, I try to keep my brain out of it - if teh starting QB goes down - I STILL play the system, the line takes care of everything.

2. It picks games that are NORMALLY either low profile - for instance - If the Pats were Playing SF. That is a pretty low profile game as far as betting is - sure - both teams are well know but really - who cares - The Pats will win and MOST people that bet on he NFL will not play it because the line will be -16 or something. BUT - what is the REAL line - -18? -12?

Mose wagerers do not understand the difference between point spreads and REAL lines. This takes into account the REAL line and the difference that linemankers have to adjust to try to get a 50/50 betting correlation.

When I say "I" am picking games - I mean the system is - a monkee can actually (if he know the parameters and had a working thumb).

The 3+1 Challenge?? problem is - it does not pick games every week - sometimes 2 games - somethmes 8. If "the system" (almost said "I'm") is forced to pick 4 games a week - It's doomed.

Plus - no picks until Week #4 - it needs to get momentum one way or the other.

[craig r]

[ QUOTE ]
linemankers have to adjust to try to get a 50/50 betting correlation

[/ QUOTE ]

Well, I am officially unsold. Don't tell me you think they want even action on a given game.

craig

If it means anything, the system I use is probably pretty similar to Webster's -- know the parameters in the spreadsheet, let the line account for injuries etc., then make the play. Like him, I have no trends that are specific to the level of profile of a game, whether it's played at night, anything like that.

The only thing I'm not crazy about with Webster's system is it only gives you 3 plays per week (628 plays divided by 13 years, divided by 17 games per year). If you're only doing 3/week, 58.4% winners is the least you need to provide enough variance against an occasional unprofitable season.

The 3+1 game s/b very interesting.

[Webster]

Well -

1. it does not matter

2. yes - I think traps are pretty much urban legends - makes no sense at all. The ONLY time it makes sense is on the local level like beting on Green Bay in Wisconsin where we pay a 1.5 point Packer tax.

3. even if I'm wrong - it does not matter - as long as it keeps picking winners SOMETHING must be working LOL.

4. Its a combination of things, not just lines, not just how many people are picking a team, not just home dog and away favs (which are the "A" games for the most part) not just the COLD teams playing HOT teams. It's a soup of things that all come togather 60 times a year in the NFL.

I've never had a system work for more then 4 or 5 years - this one? just keeps going, sooner or later it'll crash and I'll look like a jerk, but, I've been saying that for 8 years.

PLUS - I'm not trying to SELL anything - public service - just extra information to add to the collective. Use it as a tool. I'm just tossing it out - here it is - if you want it take it - no strings.

[gomberg]

[ QUOTE ]

linemankers have to adjust to try to get a 50/50 betting correlation



Well, I am officially unsold. Don't tell me you think they want even action on a given game.

craig

[/ QUOTE ]

Hi all - this is my first post in the sports betting forum. I'm going to start getting into it. I just read a paper that was interesting about how a bookie makes lines to affect betting tendancies. It looks like bookies DO NOT try to split the betting pool and increase their profits by a lot throughout a typical season.

This paper was written by the guy who wrote freakonomics. Lots of good papers on his site.

http://pricetheory.uchicago.edu/levitt/Papers/LevittHowDoMarketsFunction2004.pdf

[tech]

This is very very very borderline for what will be tolerated here. The only reason I didn't delete this thread was because it did generate some discussion.

In the future, please just post your picks if you want and be done with it. Advertising outside sites is not acceptable unless you buy an ad from 2+2.

[ftball0000]

I say post your system, and prove us wrong

[TheGame1020]

[ QUOTE ]



2. yes - I think traps are pretty much urban legends - makes no sense at all. The ONLY time it makes sense is on the local level like beting on Green Bay in Wisconsin where we pay a 1.5 point Packer tax.



[/ QUOTE ]

Almost every public play in the NFL is a trap.

[robokop]

He posted his picks last year on Bonus Whores. I followed them. I made money. Your results may vary.

Geez, you guys are cynical.

[craig r]

[ QUOTE ]
He posted his picks last year on Bonus Whores. I followed them. I made money. Your results may vary.

Geez, you guys are cynical.

[/ QUOTE ]

You are right...lets just trust some guy who comes in here and claims 60%. Over 12 seasons none the less. Of course we are going to be cynical. But, in all seriousness..if it stimulated debate beyond what is normally on this forum, I am all for it.

Of course, sometimes Tech says things that are sooooooo stimulaing I can barely sit still....wait..did I type that??

craig

[Webster]

I always post picks on the forums anyway - the site is just for book keeping, it's basically just my spreadsheet - I'm not trying to draw people away from 2+2.

gomberg - great article and it just confirms what is happening with the systems numbers, SWEET! Thanks

Or the FGI Golf Forum where I won a challange last year and was the only one above .500.

You guys do what you want - they are just ferr picks and use them to confirmed what you all ready know.

BTW - tech - I'm putting a link to 2+2 for you!

Glad I could raise some blood pressurs! /images/graemlins/shocked.gif

[ftball0000]

All that I ask is that you post your system. Let others look and see for themselves

[Webster]

And that is all I have been saying I would do.

[craig r]

[ QUOTE ]
And that is all I have been saying I would do.

[/ QUOTE ]

In all fairness, and I do believe you are on the up and up now, you did originally link outside of 2+2.

craig

[Webster]

Yea - my mistake - As I have done in the past I always post plays in whatever forum I'm in. Problem is MOST years (like last) it's a non sports forum and intrest goes away after the 1st bunch of weeks.

I always posted in the SHGoddess Sports forum but that went downhill. I posted on the FGI Golf forum and was winning a bragging contest there before the contest lost interest (I was the only one above .500 LOL).

That article that was posted about Gambling Markets is fascinating and I'm trying to figure out if by accident this system is taking advantage of their outcomes. Tehre are some very close sceneros.

For instance - it's very heavy on dogs, yet the "A" games are all Home Favs.

I WISH I had a clue on baseball - make the Sports Betting summer more entertaining. But alas - I suck.

I have one Baseball system but it takes a hour a day to input data and I'm not even sure in the long run it works! Back testign would take thousands of hours or a lot of VB/Access programming which I'm not iclined to learn for 1 project.

[craig r]

Backtesting for baseball data is going to take a while no matter what. There is so much data. The good thing is that you really don't have to go any earlier than 93-94.

craig

Webster, I recommend you post/archive your picks over at www.bigguy.com. (http://www.bigguy.com.)

[scalf]

/images/graemlins/grin.gif ez:

he's scared off by the mitey scalf

lol

gl

/images/graemlins/grin.gif /images/graemlins/diamond.gif

[scalf]

/images/graemlins/blush.gif nice article gom; it may be interesting to note; that in more thinly bet games; such as arena football; and cfl; that the books really do move their lines extremeyl fast; and 4-7 point line movements are not uncommon; in other words; the books are not as confident in their expert role in arena foots as nfl..

good food fer thought

thank you

gl

/images/graemlins/grin.gif /images/graemlins/diamond.gif

[craig r]

[ QUOTE ]
/images/graemlins/blush.gif nice article gom; it may be interesting to note; that in more thinly bet games; such as arena football; and cfl; that the books really do move their lines extremeyl fast; and 4-7 point line movements are not uncommon; in other words; the books are not as confident in their expert role in arena foots as nfl..

good food fer thought

thank you

gl

/images/graemlins/grin.gif /images/graemlins/diamond.gif

[/ QUOTE ]

They are generally most confident in NFL. Which is why getting good numbers is key.

craig

[Webster]

I'll tell you why I don't enter the picks in BigGuy or wagerline (whuch I think is better).

It's because I'm always waiting for this to crash and burn. When it does I can slink off and FINALLY forget about it.

Doing it this way I have a loyal following (one year there was a group chanting Grinder, Grinder at Harrahs on a 6-1 day) LOL.

I don't want the stress of having unknown people losing money because of ME! I get no rewards for winning and only greif for losing (I did get a bottle of wine once). If you play, play because you have seen it work over the years, not because it's documented somewhere.

Don't play this year - just watch.

MAN - tough crowd!

Maybe you're misunderstanding me. Have it documented/archived for your own benefit, not for anyone else's.

[Webster]

OK - I'll be honest - I tried that for a number of years but I seem to miss weeks here and their and thus - the stats are not real.

I end up waiting for certine PERSONAL lines and space them out. THUS - my spread sheet.