20/40 4 handed valuebet?

[Fortitude]

Posted this earlier but forgot to say what my hand was (oops).

button is 65/16 (mostly 4 handed) with AF of 0.9

20/40 4 handed

button opens, sb folds, i 3bet in BB with A8o, button caps

2dJcAd

check, bet, call

3d

check, bet, call

Qh

I... ?

I don't see me getting bluff raised on the river much though it could happen (his river aggression is highest of all his streets). I'm probably behind to AK-AQ, and occasionally JJ-QQ or AJ here. However, I do want to preserve the value of my hand against KK, TT-99 here. He could even have lower than 99 as pocket pairs like that get capped a lot headsups here.

Thoughts?

[wackjob]

Why didn't you raise here sooner?

[goofball]

[ QUOTE ]
Why didn't you raise here sooner?

[/ QUOTE ]

[Fortitude]

My equity against his range of pre flop capping hands is less than 50%. However, the pot is big and I still need to see showdown. I see no point in taking the lead out of position in this hand where I'm more likely behind than ahead. Raising will only push out hands I want to continue betting into me and get more money in there against hands i want to see showdown with cheaply.

Why would you want to raise here?

[wackjob]

I want to raise because I want to get more bets when I have the best hand. I figure you to have the best hand here a fair amount. Perhaps with your strong reads and better experience at higher limits you know that you don't have the best hand, in which case I wonder why you haven't folded yet.

[Fortitude]

I gave you his range of pre flop capping hands. How can you go on to say I have the best hand? If you have a good tactical reason to check raise on the flop or turn here, I'd be glad to hear it. Anyone else?

[kurosh]

Easy answer. Do the math. You know his hand range. You know what will happen if you bet. You have a good idea what will happen if you check. Figure it out.

[Drontier]

c/r flop, if he 3 bets(play by reads) otherwise lead turn and fold to raise.

[wackjob]

I thought my reply was pretty explanatory. Obviously you think your play was superior, so why ask for discussion?

[Fortitude]

I like this answer and I wish it were that easy. I feel like check / call, check / call and bet / fold the river is the correct line here but so far this line doesn't have one vote. What don't you guys like about it and why do you want to raise so much on the flop or turn?

[wackjob]

I want to C/R the flop because I think my hand is best & don't want to pay to see the river when it is not. I also like a turn raise because I want to extract more bets from hands I have beaten, isn't that what poker is about?

I very infrequently think a call down is the best play. I'd rather not give other drawing hands the odds to draw & beat me.

[dave44]

I don't have a problem with check-calling the flop and turn and bet/folding the river.

I think check-raising the flop gives hands that are way behind an easy chance to escape, while losing more to hands you're behind of which there are plenty.

[StellarWind]

Bet-folding the river has merit but I don't think you've fully explored the objections.

[ QUOTE ]
his river aggression is highest of all his streets

[/ QUOTE ]
Given your wimpy-looking play I think there is a fair chance he will bet KK. I would.

[ QUOTE ]
He could even have lower than 99 as pocket pairs like that get capped a lot headsups here.

[/ QUOTE ]
If he suspects that he has the lower of pocket pairs he may bluff the river but fold to a bet. The flush draw is a logical explanation for why you would call the turn with a medium pocket pair. With the Q /images/graemlins/heart.gif hitting it's very tempting to fire another barrel with 55.

There is also the simple fact that you are risking an 8 BB pot to occasionally steal an extra bet. Even if bluff raises are rare they will suck most of the EV out of your play. And why should they be so rare when your play is so transparent? You almost can't be slowplaying this nightmarish board. Unless you just rivered a set or aces up it's pretty clear that you don't have much. This is a good spot to stick a bluff in.

[ggbman]

[ QUOTE ]
Bet-folding the river has merit but I don't think you've fully explored the objections.

[ QUOTE ]
his river aggression is highest of all his streets

[/ QUOTE ]
Given your wimpy-looking play I think there is a fair chance he will bet KK. I would.

[ QUOTE ]
He could even have lower than 99 as pocket pairs like that get capped a lot headsups here.

[/ QUOTE ]
If he suspects that he has the lower of pocket pairs he may bluff the river but fold to a bet. The flush draw is a logical explanation for why you would call the turn with a medium pocket pair. With the Q /images/graemlins/heart.gif hitting it's very tempting to fire another barrel with 55.

There is also the simple fact that you are risking an 8 BB pot to occasionally steal an extra bet. Even if bluff raises are rare they will suck most of the EV out of your play. And why should they be so rare when your play is so transparent? You almost can't be slowplaying this nightmarish board. Unless you just rivered a set or aces up it's pretty clear that you don't have much. This is a good spot to stick a bluff in.

[/ QUOTE ]

I was going to reply, but this post pretty much sums it up. One last thing is that you never want to find a way to fold top pair on the river in an aggressive game. Yes i know you miss a bet when he checks behind with KK, but you lose a lot more when pops you because he doesn't believe you and ends up bluffing out the best hand.

[Fortitude]

[ QUOTE ]
Quote:
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his river aggression is highest of all his streets


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Given your wimpy-looking play I think there is a fair chance he will bet KK. I would.

[/ QUOTE ]

You're implying that there is a better line in this situation, I'd like to hear it.

I get what you guys are saying about folding to 1 bet on the river in big pots with top pair, especially super shorthanded (4 handed). I've just been getting much more sensitive with which hands I'll see showdown with.

[StellarWind]

[ QUOTE ]
You're implying that there is a better line in this situation, I'd like to hear it.

[/ QUOTE ]
I'm suggesting that checkcalling the river might be a better play. Thought that was clear.

[OrianasDaad]

Value check.

/images/graemlins/grin.gif

[Fortitude]

[ QUOTE ]
Given your wimpy-looking play I think there is a fair chance he will bet KK. I would.

[/ QUOTE ]

So what you mean by this is wimpy-looking but correct play? It looks like you were judging my river play based on some incorrect "wimpy-looking" play on earlier streets with a better line that you weren't voicing. No? Sorry.