When you have a bad feeling....

[LotsOfOuts69]

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#Game No : 2554712732
***** Hand History for Game 2554712732 *****
NL Texas Hold'em $50 Buy-in + $5 Entry Fee Trny:14940566 Level:6 Blinds(100/200) - Thursday, August 18, 02:24:45 EDT 2005
Table Table 11684 (Real Money)
Seat 8 is the button
Total number of players : 7
Seat 2: LoOuts6980 ( $1730 )
Seat 3: cobra023 ( $1380 )
Seat 4: bigsum ( $2845 )
Seat 6: Tobow ( $830 )
Seat 8: cabezadeaqua ( $750 )
Seat 9: menoottawa ( $1055 )
Seat 10: jaky04 ( $1410 )
Trny:14940566 Level:6
Blinds(100/200)
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to LoOuts6980 [ Ah Qc ]
LoOuts6980 folds.
cobra023 folds.
bigsum folds.
Tobow folds.
cabezadeaqua raises [400].
menoottawa folds.
jaky04 folds.
cabezadeaqua does not show cards.
cabezadeaqua wins 700 chips

[Jman28]

Since you can't possibly know anything about your opponents hands, you have to push this.

Feelings don't count here.

[Jdogg]

I am not a 55 player but to me it looks like he is taking advantage of a tight table, I voted push.

[Myst]

[ QUOTE ]
Since you can't possibly know anything about your opponents hands, you have to push this.

Feelings don't count here.

[/ QUOTE ]

Hey, scientists havent totally disproven ESP yet.

[LotsOfOuts69]

I have pushed this situation many a time, but I got tired of being called by a crappy pair, losing, and then having 3 BB left and being stuck in the Big Blind next hand.

I figured I'd fold through the blinds and find a spot in a better position to push still having some FE.

I felt the reward of the blinds was not worth the risk of running into a hand.

[hobbes9324]

I knew you were going to say that.......

[LotsOfOuts69]

I mean, I have 9 BB here, I'm pushing to win 1.5 BB. Pushing means I will only be called by a hand that dominates me or is coin flipping. I don't want either.

I'd have to win the blinds 6 of 7 times to make this risk worth while. Doesn't seem worth it.

[johnny005]

U have too push this here.. most of your opppents are going to be fairly tight, some of the shorter stacks will losen up, but this really isnt that bad for you. I think you need to push with top 25% of hands here.

[tigerite]

[ QUOTE ]
I mean, I have 9 BB here, I'm pushing to win 1.5 BB. Pushing means I will only be called by a hand that dominates me or is coin flipping. I don't want either.

I'd have to win the blinds 6 of 7 times to make this risk worth while. Doesn't seem worth it.

[/ QUOTE ]

It's +EV to push this face up. Stop being a pansy.

[Nicok7]

It s a push, failing that a little raise (300 possibly) if one likes postflop play/stop n go, and all that. Fold is horrible.

[Ixnert]

[ QUOTE ]
It s a push, failing that a little raise (300 possibly) if one likes postflop play/stop n go, and all that. Fold is horrible.

[/ QUOTE ]

300 isn't much more than a minraise. Outside of an obscenely tight table, this is asking for trouble from UTG. (Probably from just about anywhere, but definitely from UTG.) If you make a raise, make a real raise (to at least 3x BB), except you can't, because that's 1/3 of your stack that you probably can't call if someone comes over the top.

Push or fold here. I'm not a huge fan of folding, I think it's slightly -EV, but I don't think it's horrible, and it's probably a chip-variance-reducing move, if that appeals to you.

The OP brought up a somewhat relevant point, IMO. We're only getting called by hands we're behind. Most of the time it will be folded around.

Why not put in a raise to induce a bluff push from a worse hand? If were pushing, we're still going to lose are money to Ak, 22+. But wouldn't this give us more of a chance w/the possibility of AJ-.

This would have to be very player/read dependant though.

[djj6835]

[ QUOTE ]
Pushing means I will only be called by a hand that dominates me or is coin flipping. I don't want either.


[/ QUOTE ]

This just isn't true.

[11t]

If you have a read that the player is decent you can fold this.

[djj6835]

[ QUOTE ]
If you have a read that the player is decent you can fold this.

[/ QUOTE ]

The raise came after hero already folded.

[Karak567]

If you aren't going to push with this what ARE You waiting to push with?

Easy push.

[Ixnert]

[ QUOTE ]

Why not put in a raise to induce a bluff push from a worse hand? If were pushing, we're still going to lose are money to Ak, 22+. But wouldn't this give us more of a chance w/the possibility of AJ-.


[/ QUOTE ]

The problem is, you're only going to get a bluff push from the one stack that can bankrupt you. Any other player that pushes over the top of you, you're pretty well committed to call.

About 35% of the time with 6 hands to play, you're going to run into 22+, AK. If a small stack comes back at you, you'll have to put them on something in that range (and probably a subset of that range), but have to call anyway. If the big stack comes back at you, do you really want to call?

You don't have a strong enough hand to want to induce a bluff push with so many to act, because there are hands you are legitimately afraid of, and a lot of hands you're just racing with. If you're willing to risk all your chips, just push. If you're not, a raise is spewing chips.

[Ixnert]

[ QUOTE ]
If you aren't going to push with this what ARE You waiting to push with?

Easy push.

[/ QUOTE ]

Position, position, position. I'd rather push anything in the SB in two hands than this here. (I might well push here, but it's not easy 7-handed UTG.)

At the 10's, I'd push this in a second, because there's a good chance I'll get called by smaller aces. At the 50s, I just don't think there's enough chance of that to make this an easy push.

Repeat after me: It's not all about the cards.

[Karak567]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
If you aren't going to push with this what ARE You waiting to push with?

Easy push.

[/ QUOTE ]

Position, position, position. I'd rather push anything in the SB in two hands than this here. (I might well push here, but it's not easy 7-handed UTG.)

At the 10's, I'd push this in a second, because there's a good chance I'll get called by smaller aces. At the 50s, I just don't think there's enough chance of that to make this an easy push.

Repeat after me: It's not all about the cards.

[/ QUOTE ]

Of course I know that but with AQ here facing a wussy min-raise?

I am sorry but absent a ROCK SOLID read that he min raises only with monsters you need to push here.

[45suited]

I don't care what buy-in I'm playing at, I push this 100% of the time.

One thing that you're overlooking is the number of times that you will get a PP to fold by pushing here. I'm only worried about AK, QQ+ here anyway. If someone wants to race, so be it. Last night, I pushed in almost this exact spot. The other large stack told me that he folded 66.

You don't have enough chips to be folding this here, and I just hate mini-raising. Why give some guy in the BB with TJs or whatever the hope that he can call and see a flop?

[Ixnert]

[ QUOTE ]

Of course I know that but with AQ here facing a wussy min-raise?

I am sorry but absent a ROCK SOLID read that he min raises only with monsters you need to push here.

[/ QUOTE ]

OP was UTG, he had to act before the minraise.

[LotsOfOuts69]

[ QUOTE ]
About 35% of the time with 6 hands to play, you're going to run into 22+, AK. If a small stack comes back at you, you'll have to put them on something in that range (and probably a subset of that range), but have to call anyway. If the big stack comes back at you, do you really want to call?


[/ QUOTE ]

If this is true then I'm folding.

[45suited]

[ QUOTE ]
About 35% of the time with 6 hands to play, you're going to run into 22+, AK. If a small stack comes back at you, you'll have to put them on something in that range (and probably a subset of that range), but have to call anyway. If the big stack comes back at you, do you really want to call?

[/ QUOTE ]



[ QUOTE ]
If this is true then I'm folding.

[/ QUOTE ]

Do you really think that every PP is going to call your push? Don't underestimate the advantage of being the 1st one in the pot here.

[LotsOfOuts69]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
If you aren't going to push with this what ARE You waiting to push with?

Easy push.

[/ QUOTE ]

Position, position, position. I'd rather push anything in the SB in two hands than this here. (I might well push here, but it's not easy 7-handed UTG.)

At the 10's, I'd push this in a second, because there's a good chance I'll get called by smaller aces. At the 50s, I just don't think there's enough chance of that to make this an easy push.

Repeat after me: It's not all about the cards.

[/ QUOTE ]

At least I got one guy on my side.

I mean, I don't see why everyone is saying YOU HAVE TO PUSH THIS. I mean, is it really THAT horrible to fold? I still have 9BB, I could fold through the blinds and still be in great shape.

Someone come up with a legit reason why I should risk my enitire 9BB stack for a 1.5BB reward?

[45suited]

[ QUOTE ]
Someone come up with a legit reason why I should risk my enitire 9BB stack for a 1.5BB reward?

[/ QUOTE ]

Tigerite already gave you the answer to this question:

[ QUOTE ]
It's +EV to push this face up. Stop being a pansy.

[/ QUOTE ]

Sure, you have plenty of chips to make it through the blinds and be in a multi-way dogfight to ITM, but don't you want to seperate yourself from the pack? And the thing is, you also seem to not be factoring in the times that you will get called and WIN the hand.

[YourFoxyGrandma]

Your reward is not 1.5BBs.

The truth is, you're not only going to be called by AK and 22+; AT+ and KQ+ can make this call as well--incorrectly of course, but nonetheless--and sometimes even worse hands. You also stand to win 1/2 the time you're called by a pp. Your logic is flawed in that you're essentially assuming that you only stand to win 1.5BBs or lose everything where this is definitely not the case. You win about half the time against a pp and I think you're way ahead of the range of other hands that might call you here.

Question: Assuming nobody's gotten through to you yet, do you push AK here and why?

[tigerite]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Someone come up with a legit reason why I should risk my enitire 9BB stack for a 1.5BB reward?

[/ QUOTE ]

Tigerite already gave you the answer to this question:

[ QUOTE ]
It's +EV to push this face up. Stop being a pansy.

[/ QUOTE ]

Sure, you have plenty of chips to make it through the blinds and be in a multi-way dogfight to ITM, but don't you want to seperate yourself from the pack? And the thing is, you also seem to not be factoring in the times that you will get called and WIN the hand.

[/ QUOTE ]

In fact, it's not even close. Face-up it's +1.4% $EV.

[11t]

Folding AQ UTG here is awful.

The only way you can fold here is by being the best player at the table bar none every single time you play. You aren't. Don't lie to yourself.

Your cards matter. Folding here is ridiculous in a SNG. You do not have the time to wait and I'd much rather push here with AQ than push from the SB with rags.

[11t]

You can't fold here because it is far too +EV.

I'm sorry but folding here makes you bad at poker.

[LotsOfOuts69]

[ QUOTE ]
Folding AQ UTG here is awful.

The only way you can fold here is by being the best player at the table bar none every single time you play. You aren't. Don't lie to yourself.

Your cards matter. Folding here is ridiculous in a SNG. You do not have the time to wait and I'd much rather push here with AQ than push from the SB with rags.

[/ QUOTE ]

If folding AQ off suit here is so awful, what about AJ off suit? Would anyone push that? How about A-10 off suit?? Are you pushing A-10 UTG through 6 players with a healthy stack? Didn't think so.

For those of you who say this is the easiest push ever, I wonder what you do with AJ.

[45suited]

[ QUOTE ]
If folding AQ off suit here is so awful, what about AJ off suit? Would anyone push that? How about A-10 off suit?? Are you pushing A-10 UTG through 6 players with a healthy stack? Didn't think so.

[/ QUOTE ]

What does that have to do with anything? Congratulations, you understand that AT is a weaker hand than AQ. We were responding to the hand that you posted.

[11t]

Obviously AJ is more marginal than AQ.

Do I push AJ here? Yah at a tight table I do. If I think I am gonna get called by KQ though I am folding.

Your stack is not "healthy" you are "alive" and have FE.

Folding AQ here is -EV. There is no gray area. This is the cold plain truth. If you cannot acept that then I am sorry but you are losing money.

The only way you can pass up edges like this is if you are the best player at the table every time you sit down. You are not. Making that assumption is foolish.

[tigerite]

I agree. ATo is probably just a little too marginal, and I reckon I'd let it go. AJo on a tight-to-average table, I'd let it rip, yes. But AQo is way ahead of these two hands.

Actually, I'd probably push AJo most times. Being potentially called by KQs as a given, even.

[LotsOfOuts69]

[ QUOTE ]
I agree. ATo is probably just a little too marginal, and I reckon I'd let it go. AJo on a tight-to-average table, I'd let it rip, yes. But AQo is way ahead of these two hands.

[/ QUOTE ]

Well OK, yes ATo is an easy fold, I would fold AJo here too, I'm not trying to say folding AQo here is automatic, I was juat surprised by everyone saying this was an AUTO push, I mean, I feel like AQo here is the cutoff hand, I push anything better, fold anything worse, and I thought it was a tough call with AQo

[Ixnert]

[ QUOTE ]

Do you really think that every PP is going to call your push? Don't underestimate the advantage of being the 1st one in the pot here.

[/ QUOTE ]

That depends on your buyin level; I've been called by 22-66 here at the 20s moderately regularly, while I'd hope that's a bit rarer at higher buyins.

[tigerite]

But it's not close, you can prove it face-up with eastbay's tool even. AJo isn't really that close if you give a discount for being in BB next hand (+1.0% $EV)

[Daliman]

[ QUOTE ]
Since you can't possibly know anything about your opponents hands, you have to push this.

Feelings don't count here.

[/ QUOTE ]
What he said.

[fluorescenthippo]

[ QUOTE ]
I have pushed this situation many a time, but I got tired of being called by a crappy pair, losing, and then having 3 BB left and being stuck in the Big Blind next hand.

I figured I'd fold through the blinds and find a spot in a better position to push still having some FE.

I felt the reward of the blinds was not worth the risk of running into a hand.

[/ QUOTE ]

think of it as a large value bet. theres a good chance you have the best hand at the table