Headsup, another turn checkraise.

[Bob T.]

CP 6-12.

Weak player limps in Late Position, SB who seems to be at least a moderately competent player, completes, and I check with 9 /forums/images/icons/club.gif 7 /forums/images/icons/spade.gif in the BB.

Flop A /forums/images/icons/heart.gif 7 /forums/images/icons/heart.gif 5 /forums/images/icons/spade.gif.

SB checks, I bet, LP folds, and SB calls.

Turn, 8 /forums/images/icons/club.gif . I bet, he checkraises. There are five and a half big bets in the pot, and if a 9, 7, or 6 would win for me, I have 9 outs. With the two hearts, and three cards close together, there is some possibility that this is a semibluff checkraise, so I think that I have an easy call here. Anyone disagree?

River, 3 /forums/images/icons/diamond.gif . He bets, your choice do you raise, call, or fold?

[Homer]

Be forewarned, my thinking is rather odd today...

Your effective odds for calling your opponent down are 6.5:2. So, you have to win more than 25% of the time (23.5% to be exact) to justify calling down your opponent. What percentage of the time do you have to be ahead on the turn to justify calling your opponent down? You are ahead right now x percent of the time and will catch up 9/46 (assuming all your outs are good) of the (1-x) percent of the time you are behind. So, to break even on the proposition you have to be ahead 4.4% of the time on the turn [x + (1-x)*(9/46) = .235]. I think you are, so call him down.

I don't know if that makes any sense or if I am talking out of my ass again. In real time, my thoughts would be:

1) I might be ahead because this is a good board for a semi-bluff
2) If my opponent is a good player, he will know that this flop was a good one for me to try to steal on, so his turn check-raise could very well be a resteal
3) If I do happen to be behind, I have nine potential outs with which I could surpass my opponent

The combination of these things would cause me to call him down.

Also (I'm not sure about this, and frankly wouldn't do it myself), three-betting the turn could probably be argued for if you intend to call down anyway, because you can fold to a four-bet (not sure about this), and if your opponent was semi-bluffing with a draw, you'll be charging him another bet to do so.

-- Homer

[J.R.]

I have a hard time assuming all 9 outs are good, becuase the turn raise could be aces up, could be a 6 (so the 9 is not an out), could be a pair plus a draw, etc. While this is a very player/read dependent decision, I think it is deceptive to say that Bob only has to be ahead 4.4% of the time to correctly call.

I think the formula is correct, and respect the time and thought you put into it, but would smudge the 9/46 value (the chances of improvement) downwards to compensate for the fact that all 9 outs may not be good. How much of a fudge factor is needed depends on the aggressiveness of the opponent, IMO.

Further, the effective odds may be worse because Bob will have to face a check-raise on river a certain number of times when he hits one of his 9 outs but the opponent improves or was already ahead, but this may be compensated by the number of times Bob misses but his oponents checks to him on the river.

[Homer]

You're right, the circumstances I assumed were ideal for Bob. You definitely need to adjust some of the numbers for the times his outs won't be good and/or he will be checkraised on the river.

-- Homer

p.s. - Don't worry, I didn't put too much time/thought into my post. /forums/images/icons/tongue.gif

[elysium]

hi bob
good post. no, the turn call is not as simple as it looks. you've got problems with this one. firstly, you might be drawing dead etc. so the call only has minimal ev.

you say that this player is unfamiliar with your playing style, and that it is a passive game. what may be warranted here bob is a reraise. not sure though. i don't like calling here. i would like a free show down unless there was improvement there on the river bob. i think you'd better reraise and pick it up now. also, this should keep things more predictable. you don't like the check-raiser coming to life in this one.

[MarkD]

Fold the turn, although reraising might be the best play. I think calling is the worst. If you call the turn I think you have to call the river, which is why I think calling the turn is poor.

[lil']

Hoo boy, these math formulas make me a little dizzy. Any reason for you to think this guy doesn't have something better than you? We didn't get a lot of info about your opponent or whaty you are thinking.

In the absence of any other info I try to fold. I find my worst sessions occur when I call down too many hands like this.

[elysium]

hi holm
that's right, he could fold to the 4 bet.

[Homer]

Not that it matters, but what did you do on the river and what did your opponent have?

-- Homer

[AceHigh]

"He bets, your choice do you raise, call, or fold?"

If you got to the river you should call.

The time for making the critical decision is on the turn. Against most players you can fold, your opponent likely has an Ace, but I think the decision is totally dependent on the player.

[Bob T.]

Sorry, I took so long posting these, I got involved in a couple of other threads, and forgot about this one.

I called, and he had K /forums/images/icons/heart.gif 8 /forums/images/icons/heart.gif . For a flush draw, and a turned pair of eights, his hand beat my Sevens.

When he checkraised, I thought that he had a flush draw, and was semibluffing with his draw. Whens the non-heart came on the river, I thought that my hand was good. I almost got it right. Thanks for the responses.