River plan? (sthief09 motivated post)

[bobdibble]

Live 10/20 - 3 handed

Button stradles, I call in the BB w/T3d, button checks.

Flop: 3s 6c 9d

I checkraise.

Turn: 2d

I bet, button raises, I call.

River: 6d

Gimme a plan...

[wackjob]

Checkraise again.

[bobdibble]

[ QUOTE ]
Checkraise again.

[/ QUOTE ]

That's only part of a plan... what is my plan if 3-bet? And if 3-bet, what hands you put button on?

[wackjob]

I cap if he 3-bets(unless there is no cap HU which many card rooms have). If there is no cap & he 5-bets I will call. I think he may be overplaying 2-pair or a set.

[wackjob]

If he 5-bets I'm putting him on a boat almost always & possible a better flush(very rarely). I'm not folding here ever.

[Monty Cantsin]

[ QUOTE ]
I cap if he 3-bets(unless there is no cap HU which many card rooms have). If there is no cap & he 5-bets I will call. I think he may be overplaying 2-pair or a set.

[/ QUOTE ]

If he 3-bets the river I don't expect to see 2-pair or a set.

If he had 2 pair it's now either counterfitted or filled.

If he had a set it's now filled and a plain old 6 doesn't play like that on the flop and turn.

Before the hypothetical river 3-bet there are a lot of straddle hands that a rational player would play this way that you are ahead of: 32, 92, 93, 45, A4, overpairs, maybe a smaller flush.

After the hypothetical river 3-bet the only hands on this list are maybe the smaller flush and even less likely 45, A4 and the overpairs. In any event you have to call because who knows how rational he is?

/mc

[bobdibble]

[ QUOTE ]
In any event you have to call because who knows how rational he is?

[/ QUOTE ]

Button is pretty rational on the river.

Anyway, I'm pretty sure that if I am 3-bet I am behind to a boat or against another flush. My guess is that I'm probaly only ahead 20% of the time if I get 3-bet, which is enough to call, but not enough to cap. (WA has a 4-bet cap that holds even when HU)

[wackjob]

The beauty of having a good read is that you can make a good call or fold. If you have the read, go with it.

[bobdibble]

The main reason I posted this is that I think a CR is best on this river. She is going to have a hard time putting me on a runner runner flush.

As sthief pointed out in another thread, if I bet and get raised, I am probably screwed... but if I CR and just get called, I am probably good.

Anyway, I suck. I bet and got raised. I almost folded, but I called. She showed me J5d for a turn semi-bluff with an overcard, gutshot, and flush draw and a rivered flush. MHING.