Naked Gutshot on Coordinated Board with Heavy Action

Doesn't the subject sound sexy? Okay... onto the hand.

Party Poker 1/2 Hold'em (10 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is BB with A/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, J/images/graemlins/spade.gif.
<font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, UTG+1 calls, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, MP1 calls, MP2 calls, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, Button calls, SB completes, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, UTG+1 calls, MP1 calls, MP2 calls, Button calls, SB calls.

Flop: (12 SB) 7/images/graemlins/club.gif, 9/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 8/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="#0000FF">(6 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">SB bets</font>, Hero calls, <font color="#CC3333">UTG+1 raises</font>, MP1 calls, MP2 folds, <font color="#CC3333">Button 3-bets</font>, SB calls, Hero folds, UTG+1 calls, MP1 calls.

Turn: (12.50 BB) 2/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">SB bets</font>, UTG+1 calls, MP1 calls, <font color="#CC3333">Button raises</font>, SB calls, UTG+1 calls, MP1 calls $2.25 (All-In), Button calls, SB calls, UTG+1 calls.

River: (21 BB) 8/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="#0000FF">(4 players, 1 all-in)</font>
SB checks, UTG+1 checks, <font color="#CC3333">Button bets</font>, SB calls, UTG+1 calls.

Final Pot: 24 BB

Bad fold on flop? My reasoning was someone probably has a T, someone probably has two-pair, and someone probably has a straight. My overcards were worthless and I had a naked gutshot which MIGHT split the pot (if one of them doesn't have QJ).

I was given 11.5:1, which was enough to justify calling with a gutshot, I know. But I didn't think my gutshot would win it, rather it would only split it and I'd be up against a lot of re-draws. With 2-bets to me, I really didn't like my chances.

Was I being too weak?

[hemstock]

excellent fold

[TomBrooks]

PREFLOP: I don't like raising AJ offsuit in the BB vs. five opponents. I don't think it plays well multiway.

FLOP: I'd probably call the two small bets. Your getting 12:1. You might have to split a straight as you thought, so calling is marginal. Folding is not terrible.

[Matt Jenko]

Good fold. I would also not recommend raising preflop here as you are only bloating the pot with a hand that does not do very well against this number of opponents. Your equity is not that high and as you pointed out, everyone will have the odds to draw on the flop because of this. You will not thin the field enough to really justify this raise.

[silkyslim]

Stop the action on your play on the flop. What does the rest of the hand matter? I would have raised on the flop to clean up my overcards, plus we have that gutshot.

Would you be against raising AQo in the BB with a multiway pot?

With that much action on the flop, I was near certain my overcards were worthless. Even if somehow everyone were raising on a draw, then I'd say they must have a T or J at least (and the stupid ones would raise a 6 here). That really cuts into my outs.

[Sykes]

[ QUOTE ]
Would you be against raising AQo in the BB with a multiway pot?

[/ QUOTE ]

Do you realize how dumb that statement is? That's like saying AJ is the same as AT.

AQ is alot better than AJ because when you flop a Q, you only have to worry about 1 higher rather than 2 when you flop a J with AJ.

I'm not saying I would ever stop raising AQo in the BB. I've heard some players mention not to raise AQo after a bunch of limpers and was curious what he thought.

You're right, AJo is a bit of a stretch to raise here. I think I even raise ATo here against loose limpers. I need to cut those out...

[TomBrooks]

Ya, I'll raise AQo in the BB after a bunch of limpers. Just not AJo.

[imported_The Vibesman]

I think the fold is fine. As you said, you have immediate odds to call, but you also have reverse implied odds to deal with if you don't hit on the turn and SB bets out (do you call, or fold knowing it will be raised behind you?) and as you said there are times you will make the str8 and lose to a higher str8 or split w/ the same.

[bozlax]

First, cut off the action at your second flop decision (the point where you have your question). Seeing that you wouldn't have made your hand doesn't affect MY analysis, of course, given my miraculously strong mind and will (/images/graemlins/grin.gif), but it might influence some.

If you assume that someone has a T then you don't have the odds to call when it's 2 back to you. Since JT is a popular holding, I think it's not unreasonable to think you're already up against a made straight, even. If your T does fall, you have to worry about QJ.

Given the action, I think your fold was fine against unknowns (and since you didn't give us reads, I assume they were unknown).

[deception5]

Something to think about:

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

167,041 games 6.626 secs 25,209 games/sec

Board:
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 24.2214 % 22.99% 01.23% { AJo }
Hand 2: 15.1260 % 14.04% 01.09% { random }
Hand 3: 15.2971 % 14.24% 01.06% { random }
Hand 4: 15.1393 % 14.08% 01.06% { random }
Hand 5: 15.1109 % 14.05% 01.06% { random }
Hand 6: 15.1053 % 14.04% 01.07% { random }



Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

167,222 games 6.875 secs 24,323 games/sec

Board:
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 25.8157 % 24.73% 01.08% { AQo }
Hand 2: 14.8393 % 13.77% 01.07% { random }
Hand 3: 14.8912 % 13.86% 01.03% { random }
Hand 4: 14.9002 % 13.88% 01.02% { random }
Hand 5: 14.7263 % 13.68% 01.04% { random }
Hand 6: 14.8273 % 13.78% 01.04% { random }

Your edge is not that much bigger with AQ...

[bozlax]

[ QUOTE ]
Stop the action on your play on the flop. What does the rest of the hand matter? I would have raised on the flop to clean up my overcards, plus we have that gutshot.

[/ QUOTE ]

Huh? Almost the entire field has already called some number of bets cold, or re-raised. Who are you expecting to fold?

Oh, you mean the first time. That's an excellent point, I hadn't even noticed that. If that hadn't changed the subsequent action (i.e. it's still 2 back to you, but now it's capped) what do youdo?

[deception5]

[ QUOTE ]
Bad fold on flop? My reasoning was someone probably has a T, someone probably has two-pair, and someone probably has a straight. My overcards were worthless and I had a naked gutshot which MIGHT split the pot (if one of them doesn't have QJ).

[/ QUOTE ]

The fold is fine, the reasoning seems a bit weak. You are right, one of your opponents probably has 2 pair. One may very well have a T or even a set. But you should not get into the habit of giving your opponents credit for flopping a monster like a straight which needs 2 cards (I'm not saying it's impossible, but it's really too early to tell at this point). Even if they did flop a straight, more than half the time it's the lower end of the straight (since you have a J) so you may have outs (and will be paid off nicely).

[deception5]

[ QUOTE ]
Stop the action on your play on the flop. What does the rest of the hand matter? I would have raised on the flop to clean up my overcards, plus we have that gutshot.

[/ QUOTE ]

This board is too coordinated, the pot is too big, and your hand is too weak for this in my opinion. You raised from the BB showing huge strength preflop and the SB bet into you. Just calling is fine as you'd really prefer not to fold just yet unless it's 2 more back to you in which case you're probably toast....

[bozlax]

Did you enumerate all or monte carlo? Also, did you stop it before it completed (ony 167,222 games?)?

I'm just curious. When I try to pokerstove a hand on enumerate all with more than 3 random hands it blows up.

[deception5]

I used monte carlo, I think it's usually more accurate, enumerate all seems to give different ranges for each player while monte carlo gives an approximation for each. I usually stop it after a few seconds as the results tend to converge fairly quickly. Here's AJo over 17 million hands:

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

17,417,520 games 998.012 secs 17,452 games/sec

Board:
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 24.3287 % 23.10% 01.23% { AJo }
Hand 2: 15.1243 % 14.07% 01.06% { random }
Hand 3: 15.1317 % 14.07% 01.06% { random }
Hand 4: 15.1541 % 14.09% 01.06% { random }
Hand 5: 15.1221 % 14.07% 01.05% { random }
Hand 6: 15.1391 % 14.08% 01.06% { random }


---

[Duerig]

[ QUOTE ]
PREFLOP: I don't like raising AJ offsuit in the BB vs. five opponents. I don't think it plays well multiway.


[/ QUOTE ]

There's a lot of people saying this in this thread. I tend to disagree. You're right that AJo doesn't play well multiway, but against your typical party donks, I think you lose a ton of value by not raising this pf. You're going to need to play fairly well post flop, however. You can't auto bet a flop that totally misses you into a field of calling stations.

[Sykes]

[ QUOTE ]
Something to think about:

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

167,041 games 6.626 secs 25,209 games/sec

Board:
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 24.2214 % 22.99% 01.23% { AJo }
Hand 2: 15.1260 % 14.04% 01.09% { random }
Hand 3: 15.2971 % 14.24% 01.06% { random }
Hand 4: 15.1393 % 14.08% 01.06% { random }
Hand 5: 15.1109 % 14.05% 01.06% { random }
Hand 6: 15.1053 % 14.04% 01.07% { random }



Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

167,222 games 6.875 secs 24,323 games/sec

Board:
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 25.8157 % 24.73% 01.08% { AQo }
Hand 2: 14.8393 % 13.77% 01.07% { random }
Hand 3: 14.8912 % 13.86% 01.03% { random }
Hand 4: 14.9002 % 13.88% 01.02% { random }
Hand 5: 14.7263 % 13.68% 01.04% { random }
Hand 6: 14.8273 % 13.78% 01.04% { random }

Your edge is not that much bigger with AQ...

[/ QUOTE ]

You only have a 27% edge against AK. Still not raising?

[bozlax]

Interesting. I ran A9o, just to see if it's an even curve, and it seems to be: 20% equity vs. 15% for all the random hands.

[bozlax]

Based exclusively on equity calculations, A9o comes in at 20%, so with 5 opponents you should be raising THAT. But, as QTip pointed out in a recent thread that referenced an older thread, preflop isn't about pot equity.