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View Full Version : Who's your picks at Augusta?


olemissgolf
03-31-2003, 09:35 AM
O.K. You can't pick Tiger.
Now, what order would you put Davis/Ernie/Phil?
Who would you pick between Sergio/Duval?
And where do Toms, Weir, Singh, and Harrington fit in?

What would be a fair bet against Tiger? Would Davis,Ernie, and Phil be too much?

HDPM
03-31-2003, 10:55 AM
Ernie/Davis........................................./Phold

Sergio/Duval

I'd put Toms after Ernie, before Davis and way way way before Phold if the course plays hard.

Last year my dark horse was Olazabel. He had a good tournament but not good enough. He's not playing well now though. This year I won't bet against Tiger. /forums/images/icons/smirk.gif

Clarkmeister
03-31-2003, 11:35 AM
Tiger is 8/5 as usual in a major.

TobDog
03-31-2003, 12:06 PM
You have to look at who is at the top of their game now:

Davis just won, he is a good pick I think Mickelson too, as long as Tiger doesn't have to play with either of them.

Herrington, while he didn't finish all that well, last year finished top 10 in all the majors(I heard this, didn't check the stats to confirm).

Garcia, course is good for him, still needs toplay like he actually graduated from HS, but when he's on, he's tough.

Even a guy like Mike Weir(Go lefties!!!) has been playing really good recently, he has game, not the longest hiter, but he knows how to make up for it.

I heard Nick Faldo has been practicing like the old days, and has been playing very steady lately(remember the old days, that was his way, he "steadied" all of his opponents until they just wore down.

I'm sure it will be good this year, Jack and Arnie will probably play(no I am not picking them either, just good to se them there) it should be exciting, hopefully enough to overshadow those who protestdo the "morals" that the guys in the green coats represent.

andyfox
03-31-2003, 03:05 PM
We put a hundred on Olazabel at 40:1 (I think) last year. I think he finished in the top ten, but as you say, not quite good enough.

Woods will win period.

JTG51
03-31-2003, 04:55 PM
O.K. You can't pick Tiger.

Damn, I was going to go out on a limb and pick him.

Now, what order would you put Davis/Ernie/Phil?

I think Davis and Els are very close. Put a gun to my head and I'll take Ernie. I'd rather pick Davis though. Phil is a distant third in that group.

Who would you pick between Sergio/Duval?

Are we picking for last?

And where do Toms, Weir, Singh, and Harrington fit in?

I think Vijay will finish in the top 10 like usual, Toms probably will also. I'd really like to see Toms in the final group with Tiger on Sunday, I think he'd hold up just fine.

What would be a fair bet against Tiger? Would Davis,Ernie, and Phil be too much?

I'd still take Tiger. Make it Davis, Ernie, and Vijay and I'd have to think about it.

Clarkmeister
03-31-2003, 05:05 PM
"What would be a fair bet against Tiger? Would Davis,Ernie, and Phil be too much?"

Considering he's down to 7/5 against the entire field, I'd estimate that taking about 15 players would be fair if we were laying even money on both sides.

Here's the current odds at one online book:

101 Tiger Woods +160
102 Ernie Els +800
103 Phil Mickelson +1400
104 Vijay Singh +2400
105 Sergio Garcia +4800
106 Padraig Harrington +4000
107 Retief Goosen +3200
108 David Toms +4800
109 Davis Love +2000
110 Mike Weir +2800
111 Colin Montgomerie +10000
112 Charles Howell +4000
113 David Duval +10000
114 Jim Furyk +4000
115 Chris Di Marco +6400
116 Adam Scott +8000
117 Justin Leonard +6400
118 Nick Price +10000
119 Angel Cabrera +6800
120 Darren Clarke +6800
121 Robert Allenby +8000
122 KJ Choi +10000
123 Justin Rose +10000
124 Rocco Mediate +10000
125 Peter Lonard +8000
126 Tom Lehman +10000
127 Nick Faldo +12000
128 Thomas Bjorn +12000
129 Scott Verplank +10000
130 Stuart Appleby +12000
131 Jose Maria Olazabal +16000
132 Jerry Kelly +10000
133 Shigeki Maruyama +14000
134 Bernhard Langer +12000
135 Craig Parry +14000
136 Scott Hoch +12000
137 Bob Estes +10000
138 Chris Riley +8000
139 Brad Faxon +12000
140 Rich Beem +14000
141 Fred Funk +14000
142 Field +1000

M2d
03-31-2003, 06:32 PM
I kinda like maruyama at +14K. I think he's long enough and has that "who gives a crap" attitude that would allow him to pull it though. as a dark, dark, midnight black horse, how about Long John "Bam Bam" Daly? he's got enough game, but pulls up short in the head category. string together 72 holes, though...
what about Michelle Wie?

andyfox
03-31-2003, 06:51 PM
And you still think the players today are better than ever? You got Tiger, 5 or 6 others who are good, and a bunch of stiffs. The number two guy has a bad wrist and the number three guy has won exactly zero majors. I mean Charles Howell, Padraig Harrington, and Jim Furyk are in the top ten. I'd take Nick Price over all of them combined. I don't see how Tiger can lose. He hit into the water three times yesterday and shot the same score as the co-leaders.

Bill Murphy
03-31-2003, 09:20 PM
106 Padraig Harrington +4000
107 Retief Goosen +3200
108 David Toms +4800
109 Davis Love +2000
110 Mike Weir +2800

These are all good bets, IMO; DL3 clearly #2 right now w/EE & VJ hurt & Phold rusty; plus he's been runnerup twice at Augusta. Harrington will prolly wander into a major at some point, like Goosen. Sergio or Duval would be much bigger upsets than Toms or Weir right now. In fact, I think the five above +300 v Tiger is fair.

But Tiger is simply the overwhelming favorite.

olemissgolf
03-31-2003, 10:26 PM
Thanks for the line, Clarkmeister. Interesting stuff. Tiger being such an odds on favorite makes the line on many others seem good. No line on Couples and Haas? I like both of them over some of the guys listed. I think Tiger, Ernie, and Phil aren't good bets.(Strictly talking payoffs)
I like everyone on the list at over 10,000. If I had only $100 to place, I'd put it on Lehman.

Clarkmeister
04-01-2003, 01:11 AM
Since people seem to be interested.

First, they don't have it posted yet, but generally they post a matchup of "Best finish, Tiger or Phil" with Tiger being generally about a -300 favorite.

Following are 2 more charts. First is "Odds to Show", or odds that the golfer finishes in a tie for 3rd or better. Next is "Odds to Win without Tiger", or odds that they win, or finish 2nd if Tiger wins. Particularly interesting to me is how dominant Ernie's odds are without TIger. +400 was an obscenely low price for any chalk in the pre-Tiger era. Now its routine.

Odds to Show in the 2003 Masters
101 Tiger Woods -250
102 Ernie Els +200
103 Phil Mickelson +350
104 Vijay Singh +600
105 Sergio Garcia +1200
106 Padraig Harrington +1000
107 Retief Goosen +800
108 David Toms +1200
109 Davis Love +400
110 Mike Weir +700
111 Colin Montgomerie +2500
112 Charles Howell +1000
113 David Duval +2500
114 Jim Furyk +1000
115 Chris DiMarco +1600
116 Adam Scott +2000
117 Justin Leonard +1600
118 Nick Price +2500
119 Angel Cabrera +1700
120 Darren Clarke +1700
121 Robert Allenby +2000
122 KJ Choi +2500
123 Justin Rose +2500
124 Rocco Mediate +2500
125 Peter Lonard +2000
126 Tom Lehman +2500
127 Nick Faldo +3000
128 Thomas Bjorn +3000
129 Scott Verplank +2500
130 Stuart Appleby +3000
131 Jose Maria Olazabal +4000
132 Jerry Kelly +2500
133 Shigeki Maruyama +3500
134 Bernhard Langer +3000
135 Craig Parry +3500
136 Scott Hoch +3000
137 Bob Estes +2500
138 Chris Riley +2000
139 Brad Faxon +3000
140 Rich Beem +3500
141 Fred Funk +3500


************************************************** *********

Odds to Win the 2003 Masters without Tiger Woods
201 Ernie Els +400
202 Phil Mickelson +700
203 Vijay Singh +1200
204 Sergio Garcia +2400
205 Padraig Harrington +2000
206 Retief Goosen +1600
207 David Toms +2400
208 Davis Love +1000
209 Mike Weir +1600
210 Colin Montgomerie +6000
211 Charles Howell +2400
212 David Duval +6000
213 Jim Furyk +2000
214 Chris DiMarco +3600
215 Adam Scott +4400
216 Justin Leonard +3200
217 Nick Price +6000
218 Angel Cabrera +3600
219 Darren Clarke +3600
220 Robert Allenby +4400
221 KJ Choi +6000
222 Justin Rose +6000
223 Rocco Mediate +6000
224 Peter Lonard +4400
225 Tom Lehman +6000
226 Nick Faldo +6400
227 Thomas Bjorn +6400
228 Scott Verplank +6000
229 Stuart Appleby +6400
230 Jose Maria Olazabal +10000
231 Jerry Kelly +6000
232 Shigeki Maruyama +8000
233 Bernhard Langer +6400
234 Craig Parry +8000
235 Scott Hoch +6000
236 Bob Estes +6000
237 Chris Riley +4400
238 Brad Faxon +6400
239 Rich Beem +8000
240 Fred Funk +8000
241 Field +700


Enjoy!