Am I spewing chips pushing this draw? UB 3/6 NL

[TomCollins]

I don't have the hand history, so I have to go by memory.

Stacks- SB: 150, BB: 500, Limper:300, Me:Covering All

I hve been playing pretty LAG, 6 handed 3/6NL at UB. Other players occasionally play back at me, but very poorly.

I'm not interested in any preflop analysis.

I raise Q5c to 27 from the button after a limper . SB calls I get mini-reraised from BB to 45, limper calls, I call, SB calls.

Flop comes KcJsTc. SB Pushes 120ish, BB calls, limper pushes, I push, BB calls.

Now I have a monster draw, and tons of multiway action, but I could easily be up against a bigger flush draw and another queen (possibly with a pair).

[sekrah]

After SB pushes, I gotta think my King high flush won't be any good if I make my hand.

At the very least, your straight draw is near dead, as somebody certaintly has A-Q.

[TomCollins]

Any advice from any non-weak tight players?

[sekrah]

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Any advice from any non-weak tight players?

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LOL.. Why ask the question if you aren't going to accept the answer?

BTW.. Sit down with me someday.. You'll find out that I'm very far from weak-tight.

[thabadguy]

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Any advice from any non-weak tight players?

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Just for that, im gonna play one hand blind today(stick some duct tape on my screen where the cards would be) /images/graemlins/smile.gif /images/graemlins/smile.gif
Ok here goes...
shortie allin means any pair/2 pair..anything lets assume he shows KJ.
BB call im not too sure about..he might have AA, possibly with the Ac.
Limper push, i say set of TT or AQ.
now you push, and bb calls.
I would assume ur flush outs are clean(other than the Ac out there.) so you have about 8 outs..ull hit about 32%(very very rough) by the river, on the off chance that an Ace/9 is an out, you probably have 6 outs..2 gone.
your odds of hitting just your flush are 2:1 against, and ur getting just about that price on ur push(if you assume bb is gonna call, given his stack and pot size, i think its a safe assumption)you're getting 950:500 if i counted right, so its just about right, plus the times you split if the ace comes, and maaaybbbe when the ace/9 is good.
I dont mind it, too much.

[dark_avenger]

even if you assume that your straight outs are dead, you're still getting odds on the flush draw, assuming someone has a higher flush draw is rediculous, you can't play scared and assume someone has a better draw all the time, i say you're probably up against ak, aq, and a set.

you're getting your odds - easy call imo

[sekrah]

Assume your hands are correct.

When action is to Hero on the flop, there's approximately 650-675 on the flop, with 255 to call. Against your hands he's 3:1 to win the pot.

You can't automatically assume that BB is going to call off another $330 without a real hand when Hero pushes all-in.

So a mistake here.. Hero's push was wrong. It worked out for him that BB decided to call the additional $330 (apprx), but if Hero just calls Limpers Push, BB is more likely to call behind him as well.. If BB folds to Hero's push, Hero isn't getting the correct pot odds to make this play.

This is your best case scenario, assuming somebody doesn't have an A-x clubs, which seems very possible ( >25% ).


You are definently spewing chips here.

[ripdog]

I think you're OK here. You're getting 1.9 to 1 on your money in this situation and you're 0.85 to 1 to hit your flush or straight by the river. I think that there is enough wiggle room there to account for chops and losses to A-high flushes and sets and two pairs that fill up.

Even if you're up against JJ, KK, and AcXc, the hand is +EV, and I doubt that any of your opponents have KK here. If you go against JJ, KQs, and AcXc, the hand is a little better than break even.

You are not spewing chips here.

Results?

[sekrah]

You're kidding right? PLEASE, tell me that your post was a joke.

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Even if you're up against JJ, KK, and AcXc, the hand is +EV


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Hero is a 6:1 dog here in this scenario. Where is he getting 6:1 odds at?!

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If you go against JJ, KQs, and AcXc, the hand is a little better than break even.

[/ QUOTE ].

Umm.. Hero is drawing virtually dead to a chop here.

[Big_Jim]

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If you go against JJ, KQs, and AcXc, the hand is a little better than drawing completely dead

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FYP.

[Shaun]

No.

[Shaun]

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You're kidding right? PLEASE, tell me that your post was a joke.

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Even if you're up against JJ, KK, and AcXc, the hand is +EV


[/ QUOTE ]

Hero is a 6:1 dog here in this scenario. Where is he getting 6:1 odds at?!

[ QUOTE ]

If you go against JJ, KQs, and AcXc, the hand is a little better than break even.

[/ QUOTE ].

Umm.. Hero is drawing virtually dead to a chop here.

[/ QUOTE ]

Ok in this terrible scenraio he's drawing thin. But there are plenty of other possibilities, most of which are fine. Calling is bad. If you miss the turn you are forced to play incorrectly most of the time. You need to push here. There are plenty of times when the other opponents will have sets, two pairs, and hands like KQ, so that many of their board pairing outs are dead. Hell, if you're up against three sets you are the favorite.

[TomCollins]

Results had me in real good shape. SB had set of tens. BB had AK, and other guy had 98. 7 came, and I got no help.

So I had the odds... this time. Surprised no flush draw and no queen out there.

[TomCollins]

Sekrah, any time buddy. And honestly, I'm glad you posted, since your advice is usually exactly wrong, so I can just do the opposite.