Embarrased to post this but I need some advice

[vulturesrow]

After a couple of nights of brutal beats, I am down to 10 25NL buyins (was playing on about 15). I am trying to decide if I should continue with the 25NL (which I am still beating at a healthy clip over 12000 hands) or suck it up and either a)drop down (frankly the thought of playing .02/.04 or some such makes me ill) or b) multitabling the 11$ STTs on Party for a few nights (for those in the know, this almost free money). Basically, I dont want to have to "supplement" my bankroll but on the other hand grinding it out at micro-NL is not only completely unappealing but seems like it is almost -EV. Just looking for some suggestions on how to approach this situation. The bottom line is that I will deposit some bucks of my own (although Ive never had to do this in over a year and a half of online play)if I have to, but Id prefer not to. Thanks in advance.

[Mercman572]

continue with the 25s, Sngs have more variance. Hit up some bonuses, unfortunately the Multipoker reload is now over... that one was $100 match. Free money will definitely help you turn it around

Edit: sign up for any party skin you missed but with $500 bucks. Do the IGMPAY bonus at party, and the firepay one too if you're ambitious

[pmuir10]

edit: nvm, mercman has it all covered. bonuses are key right now

[vulturesrow]

[ QUOTE ]
have you gotten about 200 dollars in bonus money from each of the party skinds yet? if not you should def do that..

[/ QUOTE ]

I have gotten all the intial deposit bonuses from the Party skins.

Hmm it depends on a few things. The general rule of thumb is to have a bankrole of about 20 buy ins for NL. Are you a winning poker player? If so, I think you can get away with 10, but it's close. I would probably just continue to play at the limit you are on, due to the fact that it seems you can easily supplement more money if this potential variance continues. Plus, slummin it on micro limits sucks ass.

Just curious, NL $25 is pretty low for someone who's been online for a year and a half. Why haven't you made the jump to higher limits?

--solids

[subzero]

I don't think dropping 5 buy-ins is out of the ordinary. A few months ago, I dropped 7 buy-ins at 100 NL. That bothered me, so I went down to 50NL for a while. It took me a few months to recover, but I learned a lot about tilt, bankroll swings, and my own bad play.

Stick with 25NL. You know you can beat it. I'm sure you've won 2 buy-ins in one 2-hour session before. One session like that will turn it around for you.

[vulturesrow]

[ QUOTE ]
Just curious, NL $25 is pretty low for someone who's been online for a year and a half. Why haven't you made the jump to higher limits?

[/ QUOTE ]

To make a long story short, I jumped around a bunch between limit, NL, omaha, and stud, just trying to figure what I liked and what I was best at. Finally settled on NL and its only in the past few months or so that I have gotten really serious about moving up in NL. Also I should add that I had several months in there where I basically had no time to play due to a high workload.

[ QUOTE ]
Are you a winning poker player?

[/ QUOTE ]

Most likely. Every form of online poker I have played I have come out ahead, over fairly significant sample sizes. I would say out of all the buyins Ive last the few days, exactly 1 was due to bonehead play on my part. In every other case, I managed to get my stack in with the best of it and just got outdrawn. right now at the 25NL I am holding about an 8PTBB/100 winrate, even after the the last couple days of suckage have been factored in, over about 12000 hands.

[BZ_Zorro]

I've deposited $200 on 4 different sites since I started playing NL, and began at NL25 each time in order to build a bankroll (I play better when my entire bankroll is OPM, and I'm up to $50NL in a few days).

Anyway, I have never dropped below $100, or even gotten close. It's so easy to grow your bankroll from 8 buyins, just 3/4 table it till you get a bit behind you. With concentration you can easily do $25/hour, no risk.

[chumsferd]

There isn't a magic answer to this. You have a job, I gather, so you can always deposit more in the future => your future in poker doesn't hang solely on what you make of this money. You can either step down and get over the kick to the pride or carry on in the $25 game and take the risk of having to redeposit.

It's a personal choice, just know the risks and decide if they are worth the rewards. For what it's worth, here are my estimates of your chances of busting in that game... based on data you can observe from your style play:

Small win rate / high variance, risk of busting ~30%
Small win rate / low variance, risk of busting ~1%
Big win rate / high variance, risk of busting ~3%
Big win rate / low variance, risk of busting is neglible

Playing $11 sngs as an alternative will significantly increase the chances of you going bust.

[vulturesrow]

[ QUOTE ]
Playing $11 sngs as an alternative will significantly increase the chances of you going bust.

[/ QUOTE ]

Thanks wooly. FWIW, the SNG comment was a too clever attempt at expressing my frustration. Obviously, its definitely a very high variance option /images/graemlins/smile.gif

[AllIn3High]

[ QUOTE ]
After a couple of nights of brutal beats, I am down to 10 25NL buyins

[/ QUOTE ]

Have you honestly evaluated all the time you lost a buy-in? A winning player can drop 10 buy-in in a short while (especially if you're playing very aggressive), but every time I've dropped more than 5 buy-ins in a row there has been bad play involved somewhere along the line.

Are you playing full ring or 6-max? If you're playing 6-max i suggest playing TAG full ring for a while until your game and bankroll is back in shape.

Look at all the hands where you lost a significant amount of $ and look for ways to improve your game (even if the fish sucked out maybe you could have bet the turn more etc). Also evaluate all the big hands you played even if you won them: Did you play well or did you get lucky?

Finally, make sure you're still properly bankrolled for the game. There is nothing worse than imminent bankrupcy that can ruin your game and mental sanity.

Good luck.

[GoCubsGo]

[ QUOTE ]
Stick with 25NL. You know you can beat it. I'm sure you've won 2 buy-ins in one 2-hour session before. One session like that will turn it around for you.

[/ QUOTE ]

F that. How about 2 buy-ins in one hand?

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.25 BB (8 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

CO ($25.60)
Button ($21.85)
SB ($15.50)
Hero ($26.30)
UTG ($21.20)
UTG+1 ($40.10)
MP1 ($21.90)
MP2 ($41.95)

Preflop: Hero is BB with A/images/graemlins/spade.gif, K/images/graemlins/club.gif.
<font color="#666666">4 folds</font>, CO calls $0.25, <font color="#CC3333">Button raises to $0.75</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $2.5</font>, CO calls $2.25, Button calls $1.75.

Flop: ($7.60) 2/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 7/images/graemlins/spade.gif, A/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $4.5</font>, CO calls $4.50, Button calls $4.50.

Turn: ($21.10) 5/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
Hero checks, <font color="#CC3333">CO bets $5</font>, Button calls $5, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $19.3</font>, CO calls $13.60 (All-In), Button calls $9.85 (All-In).

River: ($73.85) 6/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players, 2 all-in)</font>

Final Pot: $73.85

Results in white below: <font color="#FFFFFF">
Hero has As Kc (one pair, aces).
CO has Ad Qc (one pair, aces).
Button has Qs Ah (one pair, aces).
Outcome: Hero wins $73.84. </font>

Stick with $25NL. If you have half a brain you'll be winning money again in no time.

[subzero]

[ QUOTE ]
F that. How about 2 buy-ins in one hand?

[/ QUOTE ]
Obviously, but I was going for a more conservative prediction. /images/graemlins/wink.gif

[vulturesrow]

Yes. I always review my sessions and always look at the 10 hands I won the most money on and the 10 hands I lost the most on. I have definitely lost some due to overplay, but just the past few days as I said there was one clear case of my own buffonery. The others were definitely just beats. I do appreciate your input and I definitely took a hard look at my play before I posted here, since I expected a lot of posts like yours /images/graemlins/smile.gif

Well, that sounds like variance to me. Stay with NL$25 then. Like some other posters suggested, I would try bonus whoring a few different sites. And yeah, those sng's tend to be a huge waste of time and quite variable. Stick with NL 25, as there are a massive amount of donks just waiting to get stacked. Good luck.

--solids