Please help with my flop decision...

[lil']

Loose 3-6 game online.

I have 9 /forums/images/icons/club.gif 9 /forums/images/icons/diamond.gif in the BB. 3 limpers plus the sb call. I check.

Flop: 6 /forums/images/icons/club.gif 4 /forums/images/icons/club.gif 7 /forums/images/icons/spade.gif

Not bad. 1st limper bets. This player is very loose and was playing too many hands, although he wasn't a terrible player. He hasn't missed a chance to bet or semi-bluff all night. Several times he has bluffed outright. Next player raises. Next player cold-calls (total and complete calling station). SB folds. It's 2 bets to me. I am fairly certain I have the best hand and I am against one draw and one lower pair. Raising will not knock out anyone, and I don't want to fold the possible best hand. Calling is an option, although there are not a lot of cards I want to see come on the turn.

What's my best play?

[Bob T.]

The problem with this hand, is that there aren't going to be any blanks on either the turn, or the river. Any card higher than a deuce will make more straights possible, or pair the board, or be an overcard to your hand. At the same time, it is likely that you are ahead right now, but I don't know what chances you have to make your hand stand up. I would three bet right now. If you are ahead, you will get to take control of the hand, and I think that you will just have to weather the storm and see how things turn out. You might also fold at least one hand with your action, and that would buy you some additional outs. If you wait until the turn, any card could scare your opponents into not acting, if it didn't make their hand, so you might not get to raise a turn bet and put a lot of pressure on your opponents at that time.

Additionally, if you three bet, and it gets reraised afterward, you might be able to slow down, and save some bets on the big bet streets.

I think that this is a tough situation, and the right course of action isn't completely clear to me. If someone gave me a compelling reason to call, or even fold here, I would certainly be willing to listen. I don't like calling, because if you call, then a scare card comes on the turn, and all of them except for deuces are scare cards, you might end up playing this hand call, call, call, and that doesn't seem right.

[elysium]

hi lil,
good post. o.k., i'm putting you in the lead here lil. we going to reraise to tie your opponents to the flop. i like who you're up against and i want to see the river here. just reraise. bet out on the turn. if the 5 hits, rope it, but don't give it up. don't give this one up.

[34TheTruth34]

This may sound insane, but I like folding on the flop here. It's possible you're ahead. Actually, it's very possible you're ahead. But I agree with the person who responded and said that there are almost no blanks. There are so many possible bad cards that no matter what it is, it's going to look scary. Even if we make the turn the 2 /forums/images/icons/diamond.gif, you still have another card to come. The calling stations may have a gutshot straight draw, but they may also be trying to hit overcards. In my regular 3/6 game, it wouldn't surprise me to see at least one person in there with something like K /forums/images/icons/club.gif Q /forums/images/icons/heart.gif trying to hit an overcard or a runner-runner flush. Now I understand that the field can't have all of those hands, and if a jack comes off on the turn, you're not necessarily behind, but you certainly can't play it nearly as aggressively as you'd like to. So the end result is that you'll never know where you are in the hand, which leads to you paying off if you're behind and not making enough money on it when it's good. Just because the players have been out of line bluffing before doesn't mean that they don't have anything this time. There has been a bet and a raise, so maybe one of them can beat an overpair. You may be playing to 2 or 5 outs, which will still be subjected to redraws on the river. All things considered, I think that 99 will not be the best hand at the end a majority of the time, and when it is, you won't be able to make enough off of it to make it profitable in the long run. I'd wait until I knew I had the best of it to start to fire chips.

If you do decide to play the hand, I like a call here on the flop, hope it doesn't get reraised, then get agressive after you see a safe turn card.

[Nottom]

Did you check the flop here? I'm assuming you did, although you never state it.

Given the situation you are in, I would raise and give you opponents a chance to make a mistake. You have the best hand here, and it is very rarely wrong to not put bets in when you have the best hand. I also would have bet out on the flop since with a flop like this it will often end up being checked around and you can't aford to give anybody a free card since like the other poster said, pretty much everything is a scare card for you.

[Ulysses]

What's my best play?

3-bet.

[lil']

Sorry, I forgot to mention that I was checking with the intention of check-raising.

[bernie]

not a great flop with limpers. but if im playing this, im raising. very likely a flush draw out there. so if a flush hits the turn, you can probably get away from it. if it's capped, then you have to consider the cappers capping standards with a board like this. along with what he'd likely play in that position.

b

[FletchJr.]

I think if you're sure that you have the best, and raising will not lose anyone, you got to call, see the turn, if you like it check raise. If it's a scare card and you think your dead, muck. There's the other option of 3 betting and then betting out on the turn, but if you are indeed ahead you probably will make more money by check raising the turn, especially if you force someone to call 2 bb's to a draw.

[JTG51]

I'd bet that flop almost every time for a variety of reasons.

Given that you checked, I think you should 3-bet.

[lil']

I ended up calling, because I didn't want to fold the best hand but there were numerous cards I didn't want to see on the turn. As I was posting the hand, I wondered if 3 betting wasn't a better idea.

The turn was a nine and the river was a 6. /forums/images/icons/cool.gif One player was on a straight draw, the raiser had K /forums/images/icons/diamond.gif 7 /forums/images/icons/diamond.gif .

[bernie]

one reason to raise would also be to get some overcards to fold. therefore giving you more chances at winning should an overcard hit. put pressure on em. you may even get the original bettor to fold if he's facing 2 bets.

you really gain no information by calling.

b

[Tyler Durden]

It's 2 bets to me. I am fairly certain I have the best hand and I am against one draw and one lower pair

Sounds like you got it all figured out---North Carolina, come on and RAISE up.

[marbles]

Clarkmeister posted a week or so ago his fear of turning the posters here into (paraphrasing) "thinking LAG's." I think the responses here would qualify as just that.

3-bet? Wha?? Forget for a second that you hold the best hand... A 3-bet means you're going to the river against 3 opponents with an extremely vulnerable hand... By my count, there are 5 cards in the deck (other two nines, 3 offsuit 2's) that aren't scare cards for you. Muck with vigor.

[marbles]

"one reason to raise would also be to get some overcards to fold."

--I agree with this, but he already qualified that no one in this hand is folding to a 3-bet.

[Ulysses]

By my count, there are 5 cards in the deck (other two nines, 3 offsuit 2's) that aren't scare cards for you. Muck with vigor.

Yuck. Forget this specific situation for a sec. A general philosophy of folding when you are pretty sure you have the best hand, but have no way of knowing which of many scare cards are outs for your opponents is just terrible.

In this scenario, there are many cards which he can safely bet the turn with after 3-betting the flop. If his opponents have the hands or the courage to raise and/or re-raise on the turn, that's the time to think about folding. If his opponents were good players, it might be a more complicated decision, but I think this one is an easy 3-bet.

[marbles]

"If his opponents were good players, it might be a more complicated decision, but I think this one is an easy 3-bet."

--This is exactly where I think we differ. If his opponents were good players, there would be a chance of them folding, either to a flop 3-bet or a turn bet. Because his opponents are NOT good players, I think this is an easy fold.

[Schmed]

I would have probably folded too. There is just too much going on there. I would probably put one of them on the draw and the other on a top pair with like an A kicker, maybe even suited. There are just too many bad things that can happen and not enough good things. You may very well likely be behind someone in the blind with two pair, at least that's what I would be thinking. I also subscribe to the theory that there are better battles fought out there. Why go to war with that flop in that position with that action. It's not like you are all that dominant. You may be looking at a high pocket pair like k's or something. I agree with the fold here

[bernie]

id still raise it. if anything to gain info on other hands.

ti also helps with screw with the effective odds of any drawing hand.
i see this as a raise/fold spot. not a call. especially since you have another possible raise behind you to help with a read. remember theyre looking at a check reraise here. what hand will they cap with if they do? that's the question. and it's the simplest way to play this hand. otherwise, how are you going to play the turn? call the flop then bet out on the turn? then what? fold to a raise? as one poster said, there's too many scare cards to possibly come on the turn. put a little fear into them while you can.

b


b

[lil']

I have to agree, re-raising makes the hand easier to play. I wasn't forced to make a tough decision on the turn because my card came on the turn. If the 9 hadn't come I would have been in another tough spot after I called.