KK vs suspected AA

[DavidC]

MW pot, two posters (in addition to sb/bb), 10 handed.

3 people limp, the posters check, and in the sb, you raise with KK.

Big blind re-raises.

Now, for some reason you think this guy has AA.

It's called around to you: one of the posters folds, but that's it.

Do you cap?

Okay, let's say you actually saw his cards... now do you cap?

--Dave.

[blackaces13]

No. Your hand isn't much better than 22 there if you saw his cards. You call because of the pot odds and implied odds of hitting your set and fold the flop UI.

[Zeiros]

[ QUOTE ]
MW pot, two posters (in addition to sb/bb), 10 handed.

3 people limp, the posters check, and in the sb, you raise with KK.

Big blind re-raises.

Now, for some reason you think this guy has AA.

It's called around to you: one of the posters folds, but that's it.

Do you cap?


[/ QUOTE ]

I can't really see a situation where I know with 100% certainty that an opponent has AA (without seeing the cards, naturally). Even the tightest player could be three betting with a number of other hands that you're a vast favourite over. Cap away.

Every time I have KK and it is 3-bet preflop I 'think' one of the others has AA but the vast majority of the time he hasn't.

[ QUOTE ]

Okay, let's say you actually saw his cards... now do you cap?


[/ QUOTE ]

I'd just call here, and play KK like a medium/small pocket pair.

[davelin]

[ QUOTE ]
Okay, let's say you actually saw his cards... now do you cap?

--Dave.

[/ QUOTE ]

After 3600 posts, you know the answer to this...

[DavidC]

[ QUOTE ]
No. Your hand is as good as 22 there if you saw his cards. You call because of the pot odds and implied odds of hitting your set and fold the flop UI.

[/ QUOTE ]

Okay, firstly, thanks for saying to just call!

(Now if you'll excuse me, I'm about to be a nit.)

Secondly, though, I think you can peel one off on the flop in this pot. PF it'll be 19 sb in the pot. If you check the flop, he bets, and it's one back to you, the pot's going to be big enough to chase the turn, depending on the board, of course (i.e. QJT this is a fold, because your K gives him the straight, or if there's already an ace on the flop, don't chase. /images/graemlins/smile.gif ).

And it's better than 22, because 22 loses when something like 77 hits a set. This is a rare occurance HU, but in a MW pot, it's possible that there's more than one pair out there.

There's other reasons that KK is better than 22, other than the set over set thing. In this hand, I flopped a four-flush. 22 wouldn't have been nearly as strong as KK in that hand. /images/graemlins/smile.gif

[DavidC]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Okay, let's say you actually saw his cards... now do you cap?

--Dave.

[/ QUOTE ]

After 3600 posts, you know the answer to this...

[/ QUOTE ]

Well... yeah, intuitively it appears that you can't cap.

I'm more curious about situations where you can't actually see his cards, but are X% sure, where X is like, REALLY high. /images/graemlins/smile.gif I'm kinda curious about how high X would have to be before you could just call.

Also, there's other factors at play here. If this were an 11-handed game, and for some reason everyone was in the pot after three bets, I think you COULD (not sure) cap here, for value, given that you're going to hit your set more often than 1/11 of the time, but I'd also be a little worried about other players having A's and K's, so I'm not sure... Particularly, this might have the side-effect of bloating the pot to the point where you can profitably peel to the turn, which would be lovely.

I mean, the PRACTICAL thing to do here is just call, and that's what I ended up doing (though I didn't see his cards). However, it's not as simple as you guys are making it out to be (notice the guy that incorrectly said that KK was the same as 22 in this spot; it's not).

[jrz1972]

[ QUOTE ]
MW pot, two posters (in addition to sb/bb), 10 handed.

3 people limp, the posters check, and in the sb, you raise with KK.

Big blind re-raises.

Now, for some reason you think this guy has AA.

It's called around to you: one of the posters folds, but that's it.

Do you cap?

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes. I don't know he has AA, and if I assume I'm up against AA every time I get 3-bet preflop I'm going to leave a lot of money on the table.

[davelin]

[ QUOTE ]
I mean, the PRACTICAL thing to do here is just call, and that's what I ended up doing (though I didn't see his cards).

[/ QUOTE ]

Actually the practical thing is to cap here. I can't do the math but I'm sure even if there's as low as a 15% chance Villain doesn't have AA here, capping has value.

[davelin]

[ QUOTE ]
However, it's not as simple as you guys are making it out to be (notice the guy that incorrectly said that KK was the same as 22 in this spot; it's not).

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't think it's as complicated as you make it out to be. Of course KK isn't the same as 22 in this spot, but it's pretty much the same in terms of pre-flop considerations when you know your opponent has AA here.

[2+2 Junkie]

If I know he has AA, no I don't cap. I only have 2 outs.

[blackaces13]

[ QUOTE ]
Secondly, though, I think you can peel one off on the flop in this pot.

[/ QUOTE ]

I forgot about the posters so I was thinking the flop went off 4 ways for 13 sbs. If its 19 as you say then you can definitely call with a 23-1 dog and sick implied odds.

[ QUOTE ]
QJT this is a fold, because your K gives him the straight,

[/ QUOTE ]

If the board is TJQ you can't fold because now you have 6 added outs to a 9/A. If he spikes a set you now have the nuts. The fact that your Ks are no longer good is more than compensated for by the straight possibilities.

[ QUOTE ]
And it's better than 22, because 22 loses when something like 77 hits a set.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah I noticed this myself and edited my original post. Apparently just a little too late as you managed to quote it in its original form.

[tiltaholic]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I mean, the PRACTICAL thing to do here is just call, and that's what I ended up doing (though I didn't see his cards).

[/ QUOTE ]

Actually the practical thing is to cap here. I can't do the math but I'm sure even if there's as low as a 15% chance Villain doesn't have AA here, capping has value.

[/ QUOTE ]

ok...so here's a first pass:

in the conditions you specified, 3 limpers, one poster, one villian.

here is our "to the river equity" against 4 random hands and the following hand for villian:

AA- 15.2%
KK- 20.5%
QQ- 40.7%
JJ- 41.3%
AK- 35.5%

if we do a "structured hand analysis" by hand combinations:
our total weighted equity is 32.9% (using 6 AA, 1 KK, 6 QQ, 8 AK, 6 JJ)

if we instead say the likelyhood he has AA is 90%, QQ 5%, and AK 5% -- our hot/cold equity is 17% or just about beakeven for a 6 way pot...

however, clearly people don't play random hands.

[DavidC]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I mean, the PRACTICAL thing to do here is just call, and that's what I ended up doing (though I didn't see his cards).

[/ QUOTE ]

Actually the practical thing is to cap here. I can't do the math but I'm sure even if there's as low as a 15% chance Villain doesn't have AA here, capping has value.

[/ QUOTE ]

My bad! I meant that if you saw his cards it would be correct to just call the majority of the time.

If you haven't seen his cards, then the majority of the time it will be best to cap, I also agree.

[DavidC]

[ QUOTE ]
Yeah I noticed this myself and edited my original post. Apparently just a little too late as you managed to quote it in its original form.

[/ QUOTE ]

Sorry bud.

[ QUOTE ]
If the board is TJQ you can't fold because now you have 6 added outs to a 9/A. If he spikes a set you now have the nuts. The fact that your Ks are no longer good is more than compensated for by the straight possibilities.

[/ QUOTE ]

Thanks. /images/graemlins/blush.gif

[Jaran]

Yes to both, but I'm a lag.

-Jaran

[aces_dad]

So what made you suspect AA so strongly? You have a pretty good read on BB?

Against almost all opponents I'm capping here, it would take a very good read to assume AA here.