AA oop on a paired board

[fuzzbox]

PP 6-max 2/4 NL
Hero (500) is UTG+1 with A/images/graemlins/spade.gif A/images/graemlins/diamond.gif
Villain (900) behind me somewhere

Villain looks like he is loose. Have seen him turn up with QTs after he raised it pf, and have seen him show down less than strong hands in the short time I've been here.

Preflop
folded to hero, who makes it 16, only villain calls

Flop (Pot 35)
8/images/graemlins/club.gif8/images/graemlins/spade.gif7/images/graemlins/heart.gif
Hero checks, villain checks

Turn (Pot 35)
K/images/graemlins/diamond.gif
Hero bets 25, villain calls

River (Pot 85)
J/images/graemlins/club.gif
Hero bets 60, villain makes it 150 .... hero ?

[jacknine]

Why did you check on the flop?
Worried he had an 8, or hoping for a bet to check-raise?

[ajmargarine]

Man, this would be a tough, tough laydown. You are representing a hand like AK at the least to villian. I think you are going to see AK and KJ here sometimes, which you beat. But, I could see him playing 8x, 77, or 9T like this also. Hard to imagine he is raising on the end with air here. When someone comes alive like this they almost always have something big.

Most people couldn't get away from AK or AA here for the amount of his raise. You need to win 35% of the time here on the end to make this +EV enough to call. Because you posted this, I imagine you called and got beat. But, I am not sure I could get away from it at the table either.

[fuzzbox]

[ QUOTE ]
Why did you check on the flop?
Worried he had an 8, or hoping for a bet to check-raise?

[/ QUOTE ]

I wanna keep the pot small, it has been my experience that if this turns into a big pot - I lose.

[jacknine]

Don't you think a pot sized bet on the flop would've avoided such a tricky situation?

You've surely got the best hand on the flop - why risk giving the loose Villain a free chance to beat you?

[fuzzbox]

[ QUOTE ]
Don't you think a pot sized bet on the flop would've avoided such a tricky situation?

You've surely got the best hand on the flop - why risk giving the loose Villain a free chance to beat you?

[/ QUOTE ]

Why are you so sure that I have the best hand ?
If I do have the best hand, then villain is likely miles behind me, so free cards arent really that bad

[jacknine]

Being as loose as you said Villain was, the only thing i would slightly worry about on that flop would be him holding 77 (hands like A8s, 98s, 87s would beat you but would he call a 4x BB raise with those?).
I do indeed think you're miles ahead. But as for free cards being not so bad - I think the decision on the river is a pretty nasty one to make because all of a sudden the possible holdings that'd beat you have significantly increased.

[Benholio]

[ QUOTE ]

Being as loose as you said Villain was, the only thing i would slightly worry about on that flop would be him holding 77 (hands like A8s, 98s, 87s would beat you but would he call a 4x BB raise with those?).

[/ QUOTE ]

Hold on.. Being loose means he WOULD call with those marginal holdings. A tight player you would only have 77 to worry about, not a loose one.

[fuzzbox]

[ QUOTE ]
Being as loose as you said Villain was, the only thing i would slightly worry about on that flop would be him holding 77 (hands like A8s, 98s, 87s would beat you but would he call a 4x BB raise with those?).
I do indeed think you're miles ahead. But as for free cards being not so bad - I think the decision on the river is a pretty nasty one to make because all of a sudden the possible holdings that'd beat you have significantly increased.

[/ QUOTE ]

First of all - loosey gooseys can turn up with all manner of hands. So, its entirely possible that he has an 8. In fact, there are quite a few players that are not loosey gooseys who could also turn up here with an 8.

Second of all - what massive array of possibilities have turned up to beat me on the river ? 9T is the only realistic *new* possibility.

AK/KQ/KJ/Kx are all beat by me
99/TT/QQ are all beat by me (and are not really likely)
JJ/KK I lose (and are not really likely)

66-22 are all beat by me.

Any 8 was ahead on the flop and is still ahead now.

Giving a free card on the flop didnt really add a lot to the "beats me" list, but it did keep the pot small if villain had an 8 or 77.

[fuzzbox]

I did, indeed call, figuring that I was ahead of KJ and AK (although I would find AK surprising here).

Villain showed 87o for the win.

[Ghazban]

Haven't read other replies so this might be redundant....

Flop check is good. It controls the pot size and you are most likely in a WA/WB situation (though T9/65 are certainly in this villain's hand range, they're a very small subset of that range).

From the turn and river, it looks like villain either has 8x, 77, or KJ. Calling the river is a no-brainer as there's no worse hand that calls a reraise (KJ might, but its doubtful) and no better hand that folds. You're getting about 2.5:1 on the call and are surely good often enough make it.

I like the line a lot up till the river. I hated seeing that jack fall, it's a scary card. I think I check/call a bet here on the river mainly to avoid an uncomfortable raise by villain.

I think you see AK/KQ/KJ enough here that this line would be profitable.

Too bad villain flopped the nuts (at the time).. /images/graemlins/crazy.gif

[fuzzbox]

[ QUOTE ]
I like the line a lot up till the river. I hated seeing that jack fall, it's a scary card. I think I check/call a bet here on the river mainly to avoid an uncomfortable raise by villain.

I think you see AK/KQ/KJ enough here that this line would be profitable.

Too bad villain flopped the nuts (at the time).. /images/graemlins/crazy.gif

[/ QUOTE ]

Surely I get looked up enough by AK/KJ/KQ for the river bet to be good, fairly often ?

[ QUOTE ]
Quote:
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I like the line a lot up till the river. I hated seeing that jack fall, it's a scary card. I think I check/call a bet here on the river mainly to avoid an uncomfortable raise by villain.

I think you see AK/KQ/KJ enough here that this line would be profitable.

Too bad villain flopped the nuts (at the time)..


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Surely I get looked up enough by AK/KJ/KQ for the river bet to be good, fairly often ?

[/ QUOTE ]

I realize now that what I said about AK/KJ/KQ doesn't really make sense with what I had said earlier in the same post. /images/graemlins/crazy.gif

imo, given the very scary board and a very lag villain who could be holding any two, I think the best play is check/calling a bet on the river. I think AA is justified in CALLING a river bet by the number of times AK/KJ/KQ are seen. Given the board and lag villain, I avoid betting the river and getting raised and having no idea where I am.

Perhaps this reasoning is too weak/tight? Do other people think that villain shows a worse hand often enough that leading the river is a profitable move?