Ugly Turn 3-bet with JQo

[mscags]

Villian is a complete unknown. Only played 10 hands with him. Any comments/critiques welcomed.

Party Poker 5/10 Hold'em (6 max, 6 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is BB with Q/images/graemlins/club.gif, J/images/graemlins/diamond.gif.
<font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, MP calls, CO calls, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, SB completes, Hero checks.

Flop: (4 SB) 7/images/graemlins/spade.gif, J/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 5/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font>
SB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, MP calls, <font color="#CC3333">CO raises</font>, SB folds, Hero calls, MP calls.

Turn: (5 BB) 2/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
Hero checks, MP checks, <font color="#CC3333">CO bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, MP calls, <font color="#CC3333">CO 3-bets</font>, Hero calls, MP calls.

River: (14 BB) 6/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
Hero checks, MP checks, <font color="#CC3333">CO bets</font>, Hero folds, MP folds.

Final Pot: 15 BB

[wackjob]

I think you lose to a low set or 2-pair, possibly AJ. I don't think you win here very often. With an unknown I'm not going to spew on the turn &amp; will often just call down.

[spydog]

You need to 3-bet this flop. His raise could be for a free card. Also, he could be raising with a paired 7, 5, or worse jack and be scared to bet the turn if an overcard to his pair comes or the 3rd flush card hits. Basically, you can't count on a turn bet from him so you need to take the initiative yourself, especially with MP calling with a worse hand than yours.

I would fold the turn. If you don't fold the turn then you need to call the river since it was a relative blank card.

[SteveGriff]

I don't think you can attempt the turn raise without the ability of folding this hand if you get 3-bet.

Steve Griff

[Transference]

[ QUOTE ]

I don't think you can attempt the turn raise without the ability of folding this hand if you get 3-bet.

[/ QUOTE ]

Hero is getting far to good odds to fold to a 3-bet on this hand.

I really dont understand waiting for the turn on this hand. There are a ton of scare cards out there and I don't see a compelling reason to belive that were beat. Strong but vulnerable = 3bet and make someone call 2 cold to me.

The raise on the turn just created a monster pot that we are tied to and forced to make a 1 in 15 decision on the river.

[JrJordan]

I'd 3bet this flop after SB folds in order to charge 2SB to MP. Also, if CO caps then you can slowdown much more easily.

I know you're getting 13:1 to call the turn 3-bet, but I think you're drawing dead often enough that this should be a fold. It's a pretty drawless board, as well as 2 pair board for a lot of CO limping hands. I think you're up against a set more often than not, and if he has 2-pair then it could match with your J leaving you with a 3-outer.

Good fold on the river though, when I get to this point I usually just see 14:1, meh call. I think it's a bit easier to fold though when you have to worry about the overcall behind you.

[DrSavage]

[ QUOTE ]
I don't think you can attempt the turn raise without the ability of folding this hand if you get 3-bet.

Steve Griff

[/ QUOTE ]

Folding to a 3bet is physically impossible.
I would pump the flop in this hand, call the turn raise.

[JrJordan]

[ QUOTE ]

Hero is getting far to good odds to fold to a 3-bet on this hand.


[/ QUOTE ]

I disagree. Look at this board. Albeit villain is an unknown so anything is possible, but how many 2-pair combinations are really possible here, and how often does it include a J? Too often we're stuck with a 3-outer or drawing dead to try and peel for trips/2pair here.

And yes we're getting huge odds on the river, but I still think we can fold considering this is a protected pot and we have an overcaller behind us. However this isn't the main issue since a call/fold here is marginal either way.

[Transference]

I probably overstated my case on the turn, but I'm still not persuaded to fold top pair getting 13:1 against an unkown there. That said, I've been wrong before and will be again.

I do agree that we can comfortably fold this river, my point was more directed to how we arrived at this marginal decision.

[JrJordan]

[ QUOTE ]
I probably overstated my case on the turn, but I'm still not persuaded to fold top pair getting 13:1 against an unkown there. That said, I've been wrong before and will be again.

I do agree that we can comfortably fold this river, my point was more directed to how we arrived at this marginal decision.

[/ QUOTE ]

If MP had folded the turn instead of cold called 2, I'd be more inclined to call down simply because it's HU and there's a great chance he's being overaggro. With the MP coming along too (with an obvious flush draw), it's going to take a maniac to 3-bet here without something already beating you. Something also to consider with MP in the hand is that even if your 2pair Q outs are good vs. CO, your Qh is basically dead because it makes MP's flush. So at best, you're aiming for 4 outs and at worst you're drawing dead. With a 4 outer you only need 10:1 (if you're willing to fold the river), a 3outer you need to make an extra BB, and anything less you don't have odds for. It's also worth mentioning that by calling the turn you are much more likely to call the river when you know you're behind, but have to because the pot is so big, so your effective odds are actually less than what you're getting on the turn.

Bit of a ramble, but I think this combination really makes folding to the turn 3-bet the best play.

[DrSavage]

Forgot to add : I'm calling the river too.

[irishpint]

[ QUOTE ]

I would fold the turn. If you don't fold the turn then you need to call the river since it was a relative blank card.

[/ QUOTE ]

yes, the river fold is terrible me thinks.

[mscags]

If the board was a little different, say something that has a good combination for two pair in this hand for our villian are you more likely to call the turn reraise and then fold if you don't improve on the river?

[JrJordan]

[ QUOTE ]
If the board was a little different, say something that has a good combination for two pair in this hand for our villian are you more likely to call the turn reraise and then fold if you don't improve on the river?

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes. The chance of a lower two pair that I can outdraw is much more likely in such a case. Likewise, on a more drawy board I might feel obligated to call down because he could just be overaggro with some sort of pair/draw combo. This is pretty damn ragged though so unless he's a maniac, you're already way behind.

[mscags]

Yeah, I have to agree with you on this one. I guess I need to be more observant of board texture and other things. I think sometimes that I make my decisions in about half a second instead of thinking about it for a few and coming to a better decision. Thanks.

Scags