good call given his stack size?

[brian94709]

Villain calls raises with a wide range of hands.

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em (NL$50) <font color="#0000FF">(5 handed)</font> link (http://www.darksun.lunarpages.com/poker/)

Preflop: Hero is Button with K/images/graemlins/club.gif, A/images/graemlins/diamond.gif.
<font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $2.00</font>, SB calls $1.75, BB calls $1.50.

Flop: ($6.00) 4/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, A/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 2/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
SB checks, BB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $4.00</font>, SB folds, <font color="#CC3333">BB raises all-in ($16.10)</font>, Hero calls $12.10.

Turn: ($38.20) 8/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players, 1 all-in)</font>

River: ($38.20) Q/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players, 1 all-in)</font>

Final Pot: $38.20.

[ajmargarine]

Well, if you call you need to win this hand 46.5% of the time to make this a neutral EV call. So if you call, you would need to win this over 50% of the time to make the edge big enough to call, IMO.

We may be behind already drawing to three outs if villian has 2 pair, A high. Villian may have a set. Villian may have a flush draw, which he is going to hit about 34% of the time or so with 2 cards to come being you have one diamond. If he calls PFR's with anything, maybe he flopped a straight.

You raised preflop, and bet normally on an ace high flop, so he has to suspect that you have an ace at least. And he still pushed. I hate to get pushed off TPTK like this, but I think it might be the best move. Oddly, if you had bet $6 on the flop and then he pushed, you would only have to win the pot a bit over 40% to make the move +EV enough to call.

[Matt Jenko]

always a chance 2 pair will be counterfeited so more than 3 outs against that. If he does have 2 pair, it is low so 3K 3 4 if he has A2 and then 3 8s on river.

[Ojo_Rojo]

Its a very easy call, given stack sizes and villains likely hand range. In fact I would call with these stacks against any opponent, no matter how solid.

If youre behind 2-pair, them's the breaks..

Ojo_Rojo

[brian94709]

Im not sure where you got the percentages from. After his all in bet, I had to call 12 dollars, and the pot had 26 dollars in it.
So I only had to win about a third of the time to make this even EV.

edit- this is re: ajmargarine's post obviously.

[chumsferd]

Call, and it's not close.

[chumsferd]

[ QUOTE ]
Well, if you call you need to win this hand 46.5% of the time to make this a neutral EV call.

[/ QUOTE ]

Whoops... you mean 30% ish... pretty sure I know the mistake you made calculating that, I've done it myself in the past...

[wtfsvi]

</font><blockquote><font class="small">Svar på:</font><hr />
..you need to win this hand 46.5% of the time to make this a neutral EV call. So if you call, you would need to win this over 50% of the time to make the edge big enough to call, IMO.

[/ QUOTE ] /images/graemlins/confused.gif

It's ok that you messed up the math, that happens. But +EV is +EV, I don't think you should confuse people like this. Embrace your variance.

[subzero]

Always figure in the "desperate shortstack" factor. I think you're ahead more than 1/3 of the time. Call.

[yvesaint]

Definite call from a short-stack, this could be any Ace, any 4, any 2, any flush draw, 2-pair, a set, a straight, etc. etc.