First hand of an $11: AK in the BB

[vabogee]

***** Hand History for Game 2549317285 *****
NL Texas Hold'em $10 Buy-in + $1 Entry Fee Trny:14913317 Level:1 Blinds(10/15) - Wednesday, August 17, 02:43:38 EDT 2005
Table Table 35300 (Real Money)
Seat 1 is the button
Total number of players : 10
Seat 10: jackgibbs ( $800 )
Seat 4: Bologna_1101 ( $800 )
Seat 3: BlumpkinFan ( $800 )
Seat 9: Von_Sohn ( $800 )
Seat 1: iriedogg ( $800 )
Seat 2: stu_pit ( $800 )
Seat 5: sushi1o1 ( $800 )
Seat 6: samettysam ( $800 )
Seat 8: TeddyKGB43 ( $800 )
Seat 7: bondra5839 ( $800 )
Trny:14913317 Level:1
Blinds(10/15)
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to BlumpkinFan [ Ac Kh ]
Bologna_1101 folds.
sushi1o1 raises [95].
samettysam folds.
bondra5839 folds.
TeddyKGB43 calls [95].
Von_Sohn folds.
jackgibbs calls [95].
iriedogg folds.
stu_pit raises [590].


???

[Paulson]

That's a very easy fold. Looks the reraiser has a big pair with bettors yet to act.

[vabogee]

[ QUOTE ]
That's a very easy fold. Looks the reraiser has a big pair with bettors yet to act.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is a $10 tourney, do I really put the raiser on exactly AA or KK? or is it worth calling with a ton of dead money in the pot, hoping to see QQ, JJ or TT? if it's a flip, another tourney is seconds away (this is the first hand).

I folded and so did everyone else, so this is pure conjecture, but i'm wondering if a fold was at all a mistake.

[lwspoker69]

At this point of the tourney, you should not be taking coinflips. Fold.

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
That's a very easy fold. Looks the reraiser has a big pair with bettors yet to act.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is a $10 tourney, do I really put the raiser on exactly AA or KK? or is it worth calling with a ton of dead money in the pot, hoping to see QQ, JJ or TT? if it's a flip, another tourney is seconds away (this is the first hand).

I folded and so did everyone else, so this is pure conjecture, but i'm wondering if a fold was at all a mistake.

[/ QUOTE ]

Your odds aren't even that great; they're like 11/8, and this is so early in a tourny where people are obviously very willing to give you even better spots.

[Paulson]

Let's assume its an all in bet.

Range: JJ+,AQs+,AQo+
Here it is almost exactly 50%:50%

Range: TT+,AJs+,AJo+
Here you are a 54%:45% favorite, but thats a pretty loose reraising range

[Paulson]

Couple that with 2 guys sandwhiched between you 2.

[vabogee]

[ QUOTE ]

Range: TT+,AJs+,AJo+
Here you are a 54%:45% favorite, but thats a pretty loose reraising range

[/ QUOTE ]

yes, it is a loose range, but would it really surprise you at an $11 sng? There's even the chance that he's making a squeeze play with an even looser range.

[Paulson]

Like you said, its the 11$ tables. If a player is advanced enough to know about a squeeze play he should also be advanced enough to know they don't work at that buy in. Especially that early in a tourney.

[vabogee]

[ QUOTE ]
Let's assume its an all in bet.

Range: JJ+,AQs+,AQo+
Here it is almost exactly 50%:50%



[/ QUOTE ]

If we can conservatively agree on this, then i'm getting 1.35:1 on an even money call. How can this be bad when I'd either leave the tourney, or continue with a big chip advantage (T1885)?

forgive me if i'm missing something, i'm very new to playing sngs seriously.

[Paulson]

First of all you have 2 people left to act. They both called your initial raise, so who knows what they are going to do. That almost alone IMO negates whatever +EV those odds are laying you.

But the first thing I noticed when I read the HH is the size of the bet. Now that can go either way. But it just doesn't seem like someone would bet into 3 people with 3/4 of his stack if he didn't have something big.

In higher stakes, players will reraise a smaller amount, tempting you to call. In lower stakes, the reraise to almost all of your chips is very common with big hands early on.

I'm assuming you lost this hand to a PP. I'm gonna guess Qs or Js due to the fact you are really trying to make yourself think this was a +EV play. I could be wrong about that, and I also could be wrong about my analysis.

[ QUOTE ]
At this point of the tourney, you should not be taking coinflips. Fold.

[/ QUOTE ]

This point is really important in SnGs.

[vabogee]

[ QUOTE ]


I'm assuming you lost this hand to a PP. I'm gonna guess Qs or Js due to the fact you are really trying to make yourself think this was a +EV play. I could be wrong about that, and I also could be wrong about my analysis.

[/ QUOTE ]

no, we all folded.

[Sykes]

Easy fold. You don't need to be risking your stack on what best is a coinflip. The only way I call this is if I'm 100% sure he has AQ.

[vabogee]

[ QUOTE ]
First of all you have 2 people left to act. They both called your initial raise, so who knows what they are going to do. That almost alone IMO negates whatever +EV those odds are laying you.

But the first thing I noticed when I read the HH is the size of the bet. Now that can go either way. But it just doesn't seem like someone would bet into 3 people with 3/4 of his stack if he didn't have something big.

In higher stakes, players will reraise a smaller amount, tempting you to call. In lower stakes, the reraise to almost all of your chips is very common with big hands early on.

I'm assuming you lost this hand to a PP. I'm gonna guess Qs or Js due to the fact you are really trying to make yourself think this was a +EV play. I could be wrong about that, and I also could be wrong about my analysis.

[/ QUOTE ]

your analysis was exactly what i thought on the spot, and is why i folded. but afterwards, i was contemplating the hand again, and something didn't seem right (especially after i saw how the guy played for the rest of the tourney). i'm just wondering if all those factors made an argument for a call.

what i'm saying is: the easy fold/no coinflips response doesn't cut it for me...without an explanation.

[Paulson]

Your second read on the guy might have warranted an AI on that hand. But I just feel that making that call which basically is going to throw you AI is -EV in the long run, even at the 11s. You just don't want to gamble there - you can walk away with over 7/8 of your chips which is plenty to give you a shot at winning.

Don't worry about it - you made a good initial decision to fold even though this guy later showed you it may not have been.