JJ on bubble with 2 all ins, your play?? Was lost here

[1C5]

Party 22. Lots of pushing and folding prior to this. Seemed they had solid bubble play. Your play?

Total number of players : 4
Seat 2: A285144 (1390)
Seat 6: MI_06 (2730)
Seat 7: Hero (1720)
Seat 9: MEZDG (2160)
MI_06 posts small blind (200)
Hero posts big blind (400)
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to Hero [ Jc, Jd ]
MEZDG raises (2160) to 2160
MEZDG is all-In.
A285144 calls (1390)
A285144 is all-In.
MI_06 folds.
Hero does what?

[The Student]

If everyone has been push-stealing/folding, then you've got to think that you're hand is best here and at worst you're a flip for a huge pot. The chances that either of them have QQ - AA here are too small to be worried about on the bubble with a short stack. With 3 BBs left after this, I'm pushing and taking my chances here. I'm feeling good about your chances here and if you win, you've got almost 5000 chips.
One more thing - I'd be more worried about the short stacked caller than the initial raiser, but even if you lose to A285... you still probably are dominated MEZDG for the side pot of 800. So really, you've got a good shot to win 5000 chips, a real good shot to take the side pot of 800, and I think it's worth the risk against the 1120 you'd have after posting the SB next hand - especially since the bubble may not burst on this hand if A285... wins.

gl,

ts-

[bjb23]

i think since youre in the bb here, it makes it a call. the only way for you be out is if shorty win the main pot and biggy wins the side pot. jj is just too good for this to happen, especially if original raiser has a wide range.

if shorty doubles through and you win, the original raiser is crippled and has to last through the blinds.

i think all this, plus the much greater chance of winning first if you strike it rich here makes this a call.

i could be way off, i just did this off the top of my head without any numbers.

im interested to know what you did and how it worked out.

bj

[The Yugoslavian]

How about you push for both 3rd and 1st?!

That other dude is shorter than you, right? So...ermm....yeah....this ought to be a very easy call (especially considering teh high blinds).

I think folding would be a very bad mistake, actually.

Gah! I just looked at the voting....who the **** is voting fold?!?

Maybe I'm missing something really obvious....but I don't think so.

Yugoslav

[45suited]

I don't even understand the "fold for third" logic here. What if you fold, and the small stack wins the hand, but your Jacks would have been good?

If you push, you'd have to finish 3rd in the hand to finish OTM anyway, so I'm pushing here.

[raptor517]

[ QUOTE ]
How about you push for both 3rd and 1st?!

That other dude is shorter than you, right? So...ermm....yeah....this ought to be a very easy call (especially considering teh high blinds).

I think folding would be a very bad mistake, actually.

Gah! I just looked at the voting....who the **** is voting fold?!?

Maybe I'm missing something really obvious....but I don't think so.

Yugoslav

[/ QUOTE ]

i like the way yugo puts it. push for 3rd and 1st. ship the chips. dont fold here. folding here = very bad. dont out think yerself. holla

[johnnybeef]

think about it this way, 60% of the time you bust and get nothing. 40% of the time you make it to the money and by no means make first. now if you fold, you stand to make money ~85% of the time. what do you think is the best of the move?

[USCSigma1097]

I'm with beef on this one. I voted fold...because after this hand i very well may be ITM, or damn close...

Also, one of the players I played against last week put a hex on my jacks, and thus they never win anymore.

Sigma

[45suited]

[ QUOTE ]
think about it this way, 60% of the time you bust and get nothing.

[/ QUOTE ]

Where in the world are you coming up with these numbers? We've got the shortstack covered and would have to lose to both players to finish OTM. This seems like a very easy call to me. As Yugo said (and I was trying to say in my 1st response) calling here is the best way of going for first and third simultaneously.

I really would like to see how you came up with that 60% figure. It seems outrageously high to me. In fact, there's no way that it can be correct.

[raptor517]

[ QUOTE ]
think about it this way, 60% of the time you bust and get nothing. 40% of the time you make it to the money and by no means make first. now if you fold, you stand to make money ~85% of the time. what do you think is the best of the move?

[/ QUOTE ]

lol, beef, are u pulling these numbers out of yer ass? im curious as to where you got them, as they are nowhere near accurate. holla

[johnnybeef]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
think about it this way, 60% of the time you bust and get nothing.

[/ QUOTE ]

Where in the world are you coming up with these numbers? We've got the shortstack covered and would have to lose to both players to finish OTM. This seems like a very easy call to me. As Yugo said (and I was trying to say in my 1st response) calling here is the best way of going for first and third simultaneously.

I really would like to see how you came up with that 60% figure. It seems outrageously high to me. In fact, there's no way that it can be correct.

[/ QUOTE ]

Well, with JJ in an average 3 handed pot, I figure that you will win ~40% of the time

[45suited]

[ QUOTE ]
lol, beef, are u pulling these numbers out of yer ass?

[/ QUOTE ]

LOL. Hey Raptor, you just wrote down what my last post was going to say before I decided to be a little more tactful. /images/graemlins/grin.gif

That's pretty much where I was thinking that the numbers came from too.

This strikes me as a painfully obvious call and I cannot believe the poll results up to this point. holla

[45suited]

[ QUOTE ]
Well, with JJ in an average 3 handed pot, I figure that you will win ~40% of the time

[/ QUOTE ]

But we are not the shortstack...

[johnnybeef]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
think about it this way, 60% of the time you bust and get nothing. 40% of the time you make it to the money and by no means make first. now if you fold, you stand to make money ~85% of the time. what do you think is the best of the move?

[/ QUOTE ]

lol, beef, are u pulling these numbers out of yer ass? im curious as to where you got them, as they are nowhere near accurate. holla

[/ QUOTE ]

Its a (very) rough estimate. I just ran JJ against a rangbe of hands that seem sensible to me, and it turns out that you will win about 50% according to that

[raptor517]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
think about it this way, 60% of the time you bust and get nothing. 40% of the time you make it to the money and by no means make first. now if you fold, you stand to make money ~85% of the time. what do you think is the best of the move?

[/ QUOTE ]

lol, beef, are u pulling these numbers out of yer ass? im curious as to where you got them, as they are nowhere near accurate. holla

[/ QUOTE ]

Its a (very) rough estimate. I just ran JJ against a rangbe of hands that seem sensible to me, and it turns out that you will win about 50% according to that

[/ QUOTE ]

this is a very VERY easy all in. its a big leak if u dont get yer chips in here. very profitable situation. holla

[johnnybeef]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Well, with JJ in an average 3 handed pot, I figure that you will win ~40% of the time

[/ QUOTE ]

But we are not the shortstack...

[/ QUOTE ]

you are right, my brain is fried, i change my vote to push

[johnnybeef]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
think about it this way, 60% of the time you bust and get nothing. 40% of the time you make it to the money and by no means make first. now if you fold, you stand to make money ~85% of the time. what do you think is the best of the move?

[/ QUOTE ]

lol, beef, are u pulling these numbers out of yer ass? im curious as to where you got them, as they are nowhere near accurate. holla

[/ QUOTE ]

Its a (very) rough estimate. I just ran JJ against a rangbe of hands that seem sensible to me, and it turns out that you will win about 50% according to that

[/ QUOTE ]

this is a very VERY easy all in. its a big leak if u dont get yer chips in here. very profitable situation. holla

[/ QUOTE ]


I agree, consider every post I made up to this point a brainfart.

[raptor517]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
think about it this way, 60% of the time you bust and get nothing. 40% of the time you make it to the money and by no means make first. now if you fold, you stand to make money ~85% of the time. what do you think is the best of the move?

[/ QUOTE ]

lol, beef, are u pulling these numbers out of yer ass? im curious as to where you got them, as they are nowhere near accurate. holla

[/ QUOTE ]

Its a (very) rough estimate. I just ran JJ against a rangbe of hands that seem sensible to me, and it turns out that you will win about 50% according to that

[/ QUOTE ]

this is a very VERY easy all in. its a big leak if u dont get yer chips in here. very profitable situation. holla

[/ QUOTE ]


I agree, consider every post I made up to this point a brainfart.

[/ QUOTE ]

done /images/graemlins/wink.gif holla

[tigerite]

I voted push then had to do a double-take to see that fold was ahead. Seriously, WTF?