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View Full Version : How was this preflop play?


DMACM
08-16-2005, 11:52 PM
Am i giving to much implied odds credit to this hand for calling the 4 dollar bet or is this a good way to play this hand? Thanks for looking.

***** Hand History for Game 2548378344 *****
$100 NL Texas Hold'em - Tuesday, August 16, 23:49:32 EDT 2005
Table Table 37544 (Real Money)
Seat 2 is the button
Total number of players : 10
Seat 2: lefty2662 ( $220.15 )
Seat 3: Damboom ( $100 )
Seat 5: Sammy987 ( $22.95 )
Seat 8: skinnylefty ( $172.57 )
Seat 9: CashMachine ( $95.50 )
Seat 10: Irish_Coffee ( $96.55 )
Seat 4: NiceHosta ( $97.50 )
Seat 7: Smokey27111 ( $103.60 )
Seat 1: housemuney ( $0 )
Seat 6: Sonny04 ( $92 )
Damboom posts small blind [$0.50].
NiceHosta posts big blind [$1].
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to NiceHosta [ Tc 9c ]
housemuney has left the table.
Sammy987 calls [$1].
Sonny04 raises [$2].
Smokey27111 folds.
skinnylefty folds.
>You have options at Table 37413 Table!.
>You have options at Table 37077 Table!.
CashMachine folds.
Irish_Coffee folds.
lefty2662 calls [$2].
Damboom folds.
NiceHosta calls [$1].
ash1289 has joined the table.
Sammy987 raises [$5].
Sonny04 calls [$4].
>You have options at Table 36598 Table!.
>You have options at Table 37077 Table!.
lefty2662 calls [$4].
NiceHosta calls [$4].

gol4pro
08-17-2005, 12:19 AM
With stacks as deep as they are, this is a grand time to take a flop and bust someone.

ajmargarine
08-17-2005, 12:53 AM
Meh. Pot is $20 when it gets back to you, giving you 5:1 on your $4 in a 4-way hand. Not great, not terrible. The aggressor Sammy has the shortstack at the table, which is the biggest reason for folding this hand. But, I like T9s. I think it's the best sc as far as taking down big pots. You get the butt end of a straight and someone catches 2 pair above you. IMO, once you call the first minraise (which you should), calling the second one should be done, but it's nothing great.

BZ_Zorro
08-17-2005, 01:37 AM
Here's some numbers I pulled out my ass. Some are real, some estimates.

(real)
75% the time you'll hit nothing and be check/folding the flop.
20% of the time you'll be flopping a draw, of which
--7% of the time you'll hit it if you see the river and make some money.
--13% of the time you'll miss it having put more money in the pot.
Most of the time you won't get odds to draw, which reduces the above numbers a lot. Some of the time you'll be drawing dead or have fewer outs and lose a lot of money.

(real)
5% of the time you'll be flopping two pair, trips, a straight or a flush, of which,
> 3.8% of the time it'll hold up and you'll make some money, most of the time nowhere near a stack.
> .2% of the time you'll be behind already and lose your whole stack
> 1% of the time you'll be ahead but get drawn out on and lose your whole stack.

(ass, but close)
In addition, ~2% of the time you'll just pair the flop (35%) AND get a free turn/river (30% - very generous) AND hit a miracle like two outer trips, 3 outer two pair, or runner runner flush/straight (22% - to river) AND it will be the best hand. Plus another 3% of single pairing the flop (35%), not catching any help by river (80%), and taking down the pot 4 - way (very, very small chance). So 5% all up.

So you can see why it's not insanely profitable. Under the best scenario with generous estimates, you'll make money about 16% (3.8+7+5)of the time with this hand. This is offset by the possibility of losing your whole stack, or drawing near dead in a multi way pot and thus putting more money in without odds.

So it's a very marginal call, whether it's ok or not depends on your postflop skill and the kind of table you're at. You're basically calling $5 with (T9o + 6%).

yvesaint
08-17-2005, 01:40 AM
I'd rather call this in LP, but with something like 67s or 78s, where you're less likely dominated.

Though I'd definitely call the mini-raise, and probably get sucked into calling the limp re-raise ...

djoyce003
08-17-2005, 02:45 AM
seriously...everyone needs to learn how to use the converter.