10-20 NL at Bellagio

[birdman6fo]

Have no reads on players because its my first round at the table. I have $2500 and Villain has me covered.

9-handed and I'm in MP. 3 limpers...I limp with KJ suited...Villain limps in cutoff...button makes it $80 to go and everyone calls except for the blinds.

Flop: ($430): A Q 10 suits don't matter...checked to me I bet 300...Villain calls and everyone else folds.

Turn: ($1030) 6 completing rainbow...I bet 600 (should I be betting more here...?) and Villain calls without hesitation.

River: ($2230) Ace...this is obviously the worst possible river...I have about 1500 left and he covers....what's my move?

[fimbulwinter]

potting the flop and the turn makes this hand impossible to play wrong.

fim

[deadmoney98]

Semi-blocking bet of another 600, then fold to a push??? Yuck. Can you fold for 900 more in a pot that would then be 5200? FWIW, I like a turn CR in this situation. As it played, you seem pot committed unless you check the river (and call a reasonable bet, which unfortunately could be your stack.) That is probably the cheapest line when you are beat.

[kagame]

all in and i dont think its close

[Percula]

[ QUOTE ]
all in and i dont think its close

[/ QUOTE ]

What range of hands do you put the villian on in this hand?

[birdman6fo]

[ QUOTE ]


What range of hands do you put the villian on in this hand?

[/ QUOTE ]

I put villain on AQ, A10, AJ, and 1010 (although I think he would probably raise a set on the flop)....only one of which I beat on the river. I guess we could also throw in KQ if he's really bad...but he definitely wouldn't call an all in with that hand. He might call with AJ but I'm not really sure.

[scdavis0]

[ QUOTE ]
all in and i dont think its close

[/ QUOTE ]

Firmly in this camp

[ QUOTE ]
Semi-blocking bet of another 600, then fold to a push???

[/ QUOTE ]

Bwahahahahahahahahahahaha

[Percula]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]


What range of hands do you put the villian on in this hand?

[/ QUOTE ]

I put villain on AQ, A10, AJ, and 1010 (although I think he would probably raise a set on the flop)....only one of which I beat on the river. I guess we could also throw in KQ if he's really bad...but he definitely wouldn't call an all in with that hand. He might call with AJ but I'm not really sure.

[/ QUOTE ]

Actually I was asking Kagame... I seen this hand and it was one of those to me "either you are way ahead or way behind". I have a feeling he is thinking Ax where x is not paired on the board.

Personally I can not put him on AQ, AT, or TT... I just can not see him being so passive on a draw heavy board with top two or a set with a straight possible. If he had AQ, AT or TT I would expect a big RR on the turn. But with everyone limping and flat calling the raise, Ax where x is not paired on the board is much more likely, him thinking that it is going to be a split pot with AAAQT and is just calling looking for a cheap showdown or looking to blast you on a river check to steal the pot.

*EDIT* BTW I like the AI push on the river too...

[scdavis0]

[ QUOTE ]
I seen this hand and it was one of those to me "either you are way ahead or way behind"

[/ QUOTE ]

lmao at the most over/misused phrase on 2+2. How in the hell is this a way ahead/behind situation? After all the cards are out? LOL Flop? Turn??

[Percula]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I seen this hand and it was one of those to me "either you are way ahead or way behind"

[/ QUOTE ]

lmao at the most over/misused phrase on 2+2. How in the hell is this a way ahead/behind situation? After all the cards are out? LOL Flop? Turn??

[/ QUOTE ]

On the river, which is what he is asking about... He is way ahead of everytihng but AQ, AT or TT, if the villian was "solw playing" him with AQ, AT, or TT he is way behind...

Flop... WAY ahead, Turn WAY ahead... River... humm likely WAY ahead still, but could be WAY behind to a lucky slow play.

[scdavis0]

[ QUOTE ]
On the river, which is what he is asking about... He is way ahead of everytihng but AQ, AT or TT, if the villian was "solw playing" him with AQ, AT, or TT he is way behind...

[/ QUOTE ]

C'mon man.. you are calling the river a way ahead way behind situation? As opposed to being just a little bit behind? LMAO

Can you give me a river situation where you AREN'T way ahead or way behind?

Your post has to qualify as the dumbest one I've ever seen on 2+2.

[Percula]

[ QUOTE ]


Your post has to qualify as the dumbest one I've ever seen on 2+2.

[/ QUOTE ]

And this is why 2+2 is going WAY down hill of late... What an Ahole!

[scdavis0]

[ QUOTE ]

And this is why 2+2 is going WAY down hill of late... What an Ahole!

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah I'm the reason

[Yeti]

[ QUOTE ]
potting the flop and the turn makes this hand impossible to play wrong.

fim

[/ QUOTE ]

As you played it, I bet $1100 and obviously call a push.

[luckOverSkill]

<turn Argue Meter down>

Ummm. Let me try to clarify. On the river, there are no more cards to come out. So being way ahead or way behind or just a teensy eeensy bit behind or ahead or not at all really doesn't mean much, because you're at where you're at. You don't have a chance to catch up, or to get caught. Get it?

<turn Argue Meter up>

/images/graemlins/grin.gif

[Brad F.]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I seen this hand and it was one of those to me "either you are way ahead or way behind"

[/ QUOTE ]

lmao at the most over/misused phrase on 2+2. How in the hell is this a way ahead/behind situation? After all the cards are out? LOL Flop? Turn??

[/ QUOTE ]

On the river, which is what he is asking about... He is way ahead of everytihng but AQ, AT or TT, if the villian was "solw playing" him with AQ, AT, or TT he is way behind...

Flop... WAY ahead, Turn WAY ahead... River... humm likely WAY ahead still, but could be WAY behind to a lucky slow play.

[/ QUOTE ]

You either have the winning hand or you don't after the river. You can say "I think you have the winning hand 60% of the time here" or "I think you are beaten 95% of the time here" but way ahead or way behind to not correspond to this situation.

Brad

[xorbie]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I seen this hand and it was one of those to me "either you are way ahead or way behind"

[/ QUOTE ]

lmao at the most over/misused phrase on 2+2. How in the hell is this a way ahead/behind situation? After all the cards are out? LOL Flop? Turn??

[/ QUOTE ]

On the river, which is what he is asking about... He is way ahead of everytihng but AQ, AT or TT, if the villian was "solw playing" him with AQ, AT, or TT he is way behind...

Flop... WAY ahead, Turn WAY ahead... River... humm likely WAY ahead still, but could be WAY behind to a lucky slow play.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think I'll go the other route here.

"Way ahead, way behind" is used in a situation where whoever is behind is drawing really thin. On the river, you are drawing dead. There is no such thing as "kinda behind" on the river. It's not like if you have a better kicker than me I only kinda lose.

That said, this is not ever a way ahead, way behind situation. This is just a way ahead situation.

[Maier]

All in and its not even close. Also if you're asking this question, good job putting an extra two zeroes next to the stakes you're playing in.

[cero_z]

Hi Maier,

[ QUOTE ]
Also if you're asking this question, good job putting an extra two zeroes next to the stakes you're playing in.

[/ QUOTE ]

What's sort of amazing/wonderful about this is that this is the level of knowledge of a good number of the WINNING players in this game (Note to OP--this is not meant as an insult; I just mean that you're fairly inexperienced and still winning at high stakes).

To the original poster, just bet whatever you think he'll call, and call any raise. You are not getting away from this, given you have 1500 left in a 2200 dollar pot and no rock-solid read.

He may have called you down with flopped Aces up, but AK or AJ are more likely, and if he has trips, he's probably calling an all-in. So, bet a lot. If he had flopped a set, it's very likely he would've raised, though not impossible that he'd play it that way. Still, as I said, you are not getting away from this, nor should you want to. As such, you'll have to put in all of it if you're behind, so you might as well go for a big chunk of it yourself.

[RikaKazak]

Way to be a jerk. Against some opponets this is a check/fold situation, for instance if you were playing vs. me 1 year ago. Against others this is an easy bet/push on river. Against a typical opponet this is a push. I would say 95% of the time push.

[Big]

[ QUOTE ]
...what's my move?

[/ QUOTE ]

You bet 300, then 600; it seems that betting 900 or 1200 would be consistent.

[mgsimpleton]

by this is the worst card for you you clearly mean this is the best card for you, right? push.

[kagame]

did i hear an echo


echo


echo






















echo

[John Ho]

I think what he might have meant is that in this particular hand it's likely either the villain has a monster so big there is no way he is not going all in on the river or he blanked off and won't call much of anything. There is a smaller chance he has a possible payoff hand like KQ and the river makes it less likely Hero has an ace.

So yeah either way ahead or way behind. There is no way to manipulate the action one way or another...can't get a better hand to fold and can't get a worse one to call most of the time. You guys calling him a moron understand this concept right?

And so if this is your read then value betting on the river is silly since most of the time if you are played with you are beat. And checking may induce a bluff - if he bets something small on a post oak then it's an easy call. Not as simple as "I have a straight, he never raised me, and I'm pushing."

[savman]

[ QUOTE ]
all in and i dont think its close

[/ QUOTE ]

[jayheaps]

I agre you can't fold here based on how you played the hand. the question is the range of hands the villians bets vs. what he calls. knowing nothing else, I push, but if he is hyperaggressive, i might check-call

[riverboatking]

if villian had two pair or a set he would have let you know on the turn.
his most likely hand is AK so push the river.

[Diplomat]

I find it somewhat suprizing that no one has considered checking.

-Diplomat

[riverboatking]

[ QUOTE ]
I find it somewhat suprizing that no one has considered checking.



[/ QUOTE ]

it is very unlikely that villian will value bet/bluff this river more often then he will call a push with a legitimate hand.

checking in this spot is a good play when you know your opponent well and he is aggressive and will try and bluff scary rivers.
however vs. an unknown oppoenent pushing the river is a much more profitable play in the long run.

[Diplomat]

Pushing the river, to be called by what?

-Diplomat

[riverboatking]

[ QUOTE ]
Pushing the river, to be called by what?


[/ QUOTE ]

AK, AJ, Ax....his most likely holdings.
most players won't smooth call flop and turn with two pair/set on this type board.

however while they may very well call with the aforementioned hands they will most likely check behind on river.

point is while they may very well call a river push it is highly unlikely checking to them will induce a bluff.

[John Ho]

I don't see why Ax is his most likely holding. Doesn't the lack of aggression and the river Ace make it more likely he had a pair and gutshot than Ax? And preflop he limped in the cutoff and called a raise from the buttom with 7 way action so he should have Ax suited if anything so that makes it less likely. How about KQ or QJ?

Our hero led into a huge field on an AQT flop so I imagine even two pair here is worried about KJ. In my estimation on the river you are most likely up against a boat, a busted bottom two on the flop, or a busted pair and gutshot on the flop. I find Ax to be far less likely and thus I check the river.

This is all of course assuming I had no read on the guy with the OP stated.

[Diplomat]

For the sake of argument let's assume his hand range is AK, AJ, Ax. Are you saying those hands do not bet the river, but will call an all-in bet, or rather will call an all-in bet more often than bet the river?

Assuming that your answer is yes, what happens when you throw in hands such as KQ?

Reverse the roles. How often would you bet the river with an ace in your hand? How often would the average 10-20 player bet the river?

I think this is another hand where the analysis would be much different if we didn't know what the hero held.

-Diplomat

[whodaman]

i shove

[riverboatking]

[ QUOTE ]
For the sake of argument let's assume his hand range is AK, AJ, Ax. Are you saying those hands do not bet the river, but will call an all-in bet, or rather will call an all-in bet more often than bet the river?

Assuming that your answer is yes, what happens when you throw in hands such as KQ?

Reverse the roles. How often would you bet the river with an ace in your hand? How often would the average 10-20 player bet the river?

I think this is another hand where the analysis would be much different if we didn't know what the hero held.

-Diplomat


[/ QUOTE ]

i would never bet this river with an ace in my hand.

[riverboatking]

[ QUOTE ]
I don't see why Ax is his most likely holding. Doesn't the lack of aggression and the river Ace make it more likely he had a pair and gutshot than Ax? And preflop he limped in the cutoff and called a raise from the buttom with 7 way action so he should have Ax suited if anything so that makes it less likely. How about KQ or QJ?

[/ QUOTE ]

you are absolutely right....i misread OP, and thought that villian was the preflop raiser.

this does change the analysis somewhat...however i still think hero's hand is good the vast majority of the time....now the question is the best way to play the river.

i personally would have gone for a checkraise on the turn, as it is i'm tired and a little buzzed so i don't really feel like rehashing the hand given the new info...

i'm sure you guys are more then capable of handling it.

[Mikey]

wow, you really know how to narrow a hand down.

[riverboatking]

[ QUOTE ]
wow, you really know how to narrow a hand down.


[/ QUOTE ]

wow, good post. thanks for contributing.

[Diplomat]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
For the sake of argument let's assume his hand range is AK, AJ, Ax. Are you saying those hands do not bet the river, but will call an all-in bet, or rather will call an all-in bet more often than bet the river?

Assuming that your answer is yes, what happens when you throw in hands such as KQ?

Reverse the roles. How often would you bet the river with an ace in your hand? How often would the average 10-20 player bet the river?

I think this is another hand where the analysis would be much different if we didn't know what the hero held.

-Diplomat


[/ QUOTE ]

i would never bet this river with an ace in my hand.

[/ QUOTE ]

You must be joking.

-Diplomat

[John Ho]

Unlikely he has AK. A bunch of limpers preflop and he just calls in the cutoff...then the button raises a modest amount...then back to him and he just calls with all the dead money in there?

Possible...but not likely.

[riverboatking]

[ QUOTE ]
You must be joking.

[/ QUOTE ]

yeah betting a naked ace in this spot would be genius.
with those stack sizes what better hands will fold, or worse hands will call?

now change the stack sizes to really deep and you get can creative.

[ObnxNole]

results?