What do you think of this overpair line

[ilya]

I'll post my thoughts in a bit.

***** Hand History for Game 2547192020 *****
NL Texas Hold'em $20 Buy-in + $2 Entry Fee Trny:14901802 Level:2 Blinds(15/30) - Tuesday, August 16, 20:51:42 EDT 2005
Table Table 14944 (Real Money)
Seat 4 is the button
Total number of players : 9
Seat 1: colonel2000 ( $1095 )
Seat 2: Loser242 ( $1130 )
Seat 3: postmark1969 ( $520 )
Seat 4: RangerGal ( $540 )
Seat 5: boater6911 ( $980 )
Seat 6: dougthehead2 ( $910 )
Seat 7: rusfletcher ( $715 )
Seat 9: StneColdCall ( $775 )
Seat 10: KarmaDrain ( $1335 )
Trny:14901802 Level:2
Blinds(15/30)
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to StneColdCall [ Ad Ac ]
rusfletcher calls [30].
StneColdCall raises [150].
KarmaDrain folds.
colonel2000 folds.
Loser242 folds.
postmark1969 folds.
RangerGal folds.
boater6911 folds.
dougthehead2 folds.
rusfletcher calls [120].
** Dealing Flop ** [ Qc, Kh, 3d ]
rusfletcher checks.
StneColdCall bets [125].
rusfletcher calls [125].
** Dealing Turn ** [ 7d ]
rusfletcher checks.
StneColdCall checks.
** Dealing River ** [ 8s ]
rusfletcher checks.
StneColdCall is all-In [500]

[Isura]

Meh. Way too fancy for a $20 IMO. He's got a pair or OESD, bet the turn. I'd also bet 175 or so on the flop.

[durron597]

I like it, the only hands you are really worried about here are JT and KQ, but you make up enough the times he looks you up on the river with 1 pair queens and weak kings that's its worth the chips you lose when you let him draw to two pair or let JT see a free river.

[bigt439]

[ QUOTE ]
Meh. Way too fancy for a $20 IMO. He's got a pair or OESD, bet the turn. I'd also bet 175 or so on the flop.

[/ QUOTE ]

[ilya]

I thought that my job in this hand was to convince Villain that his Q or underpair was good. Though an OESD was possible on this flop, I didn't think it very likely that I was up against it. Even at the $22s, it's not common for a player to call a 5xbb EP raise with JT. Also, even if he did have the draw, he would be drawing to only 6 outs. So I didn't think I'd be maximizing my EV on this hand if I gave a lot of weight to this remote possibility.
So, I made a small bet on the flop to make it easy for underpairs and MPs to stick around. On the turn, I checked behind to make it look like I was just c-betting the flop. Since I had the Ace of diamonds and since my opponent didn't check-raise the flop, I didn't think it was likely that he had picked up a flush draw. I thought that if I bet again now he would probably fold an underpair, but if I checked he might call a river bet thinking that I was trying to buy the pot. On the river, he can't figure I'll bet, so his check tells me that my hand is almost certainly good. I make a large bet to make it look like I don't want a call.

I think you may be assuming too much about your opponent, but I play different stakes, so I could be wrong.

[curtains]

I would never check the turn. You have 500 chips left and you bet 125 on the flop. Betting an amount equal to or less than that which you bet on the flop, almost always gets called.

Meanwhile by betting 100-150 you tie your opponent into the pot on the river when you move allin. By keeping the pot smaller and making a large bet on the river, its a lot easier for your opponent to convince themselves to fold.

Of course I may bet more than 100-150 on the turn, however I think that checking is a clear strategical error against most $22 opponents.

[Isura]

[ QUOTE ]
By keeping the pot smaller and making a large bet on the river, its a lot easier for your opponent to convince themselves to fold.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is the key point. Even though villain might think his Q or weak K is good, it just doesn't make enough sense for him to call 500 on the river to look you up. It's much easier for him to call 2 small turn/river bets or a larger turn bet.

[raptor517]

i bet maybe 200 on the turn. i dont check it. ever. it has its advantages, but not enough to outweigh not betting. holla