Limped Ts overpair vs. BB

[Dan Rutter]

20+2, blinds are $15-30. I ($1,520) limp UTG with Tc Ts. Folded to the BB ($1,470) who checks. He has done nothing so far to distingush himself as anything other than an ordinary player. I have not played with him in the past.

Flop: 9d 5h 4c.

He bets $75, whats my plan/action?

[bluefeet]

deep-stacked...make it t200 to go - fold to a push.

[ilya]

Well, since Villain is in the BB, he could have anything at all preflop. Therefore 2 pair is very possible. The other plausible possibilities are top pair, a set, or an OESD. There are over 50 ways for him to have top pair, 27 ways for him to have 2 pair, 9 ways for a set, and 48 ways for an OESD. It's not likely that an average $22 player would play a set this fast, but if he IS that kind of player, he might also be fast enough to push over the top with his set if you raise. It's a bit more likely that he would play 2 pair like this, and I think if he's taking this line he'll likely push if you raise. Top pair is quite likely IMO, and given that this hand is likely to look better to him than it should, I think he's again quite likely to push if you raise him. Sets are killing you obviously, but you are more ahead of the TP hands than you are behind the 2 pair hands, and the former are at least as likely at this level even after a 3rd raise IMO. On the whole, I think you are ahead often enough when he re-raises, and you can't let the draw see a cheap turn. Not to mention that raising might also entice the draw to semi-bluff all-in. So, I would raise to about 300 and call a push. Of course it's also very possible that he's bluffing this rag flop or has some hand less than top pair, and will simply fold when you raise. An added bonus.