Another one Im not happy about...200 NL

[Salerosa]

I am still tearing up the 200NL 6 max games but as bad as I feel I am playing I don't know how. I'm surprised how soft these games are.

3 handed, Im in SB with AA. I have 200 both cover. This is about my 3rd or 4th hand at the table.

Button makes it 8, I flat call to trap, BB makes it 35, button calls. I push.

[dtbog]

[ QUOTE ]
I am still tearing up the 200NL 6 max games but as bad as I feel I am playing I don't know how. I'm surprised how soft these games are.

3 handed, Im in SB with AA. I have 200 both cover. This is about my 3rd or 4th hand at the table.

Button makes it 8, I flat call to trap, BB makes it 35, button calls. I push.

[/ QUOTE ]

Gotta do it. nh.

[djoyce003]

they both folded?

I don't really mind the push though. There is already 70 in the pot. No reason to give them a free flop to outflop you. Of course, if they both have big pockets, you might be able to stack them both on a low card flop.

If it was me, I'd probably delay just a little, then call. Then i'd checkraise a flop all in and pray they didn't outflop me.

Looks good. Not sure what you're not happy about. The pot is already big. What are you going to do, raise it to $120 and leave yourself less than half your stack? Everyone is going to realize you're all in on the flop anyway. You got as much out of this as you could.

[ajmargarine]

[ QUOTE ]
If it was me, I'd probably delay just a little, then call. Then i'd checkraise a flop all in and pray they didn't outflop me.

[/ QUOTE ]

Your comments are often goot. Until now. Blech.

Poooosh. You'll look just like a push happy fish. You called the first raise, and now you push after the reraise?!? One of those guys should pay you off. No way they think you have AA. If not, oh well, take down 1/3 of a buy-in without seeing a flop.

[djoyce003]

You think you really look like a push happy fish? You've cold called a raise, then pushed over the top of a huge reraise and call....I think it makes you look like you've got exactly what you have....i'd think so anyway....I think BB in this hand was just playing back at the raiser thinking it was a steal....I doubt either hand is as strong as you think....i'd expect to see AK and something like JJ or 10 10. On reflection checkraising the flop might be bad, as it looks powerful...i'm thinking open pushing is better, but I think that's actually a pretty decent line and your best shot at doubling/tripling up.

[ajmargarine]

By calling, you are giving 2 Villians who have shown some preflop strength essentially a free look at the flop. That's insane when you have AA and another chance to bet. No way villians read you for AA here after that first coldcall. I'd be happy to take down 1/3 of a buy-in here without any trouble. My hope is I would get one caller and double up. To wait and push after a flop makes no sense and is -EV in comparison to just pushing preflop.

[Salerosa]

This is what i was thinking afterwards too...the call/push looked too strong. I was new to the table and hoped that one of them wouldnt give me credit. I wasnt sure if maybe a raise to 80 would get me a call but commit me on any flop and take away their odds to hit, though I dont like this line either. Not sure I could have done anything different except reraising originally but Im not too sure about that line either short handed.

Anyway, yeah they both thought awhile but folded.

[djoyce003]

your method is less risky...but I think you win only what is in their now. I think you stand to stack them on the flop if you call because there is no way they are putting you on AA then....granted you could get stacked, but it's only 2 guys...your pot equity has to be huge.
I think their likely hands are AK and something like JJ...here is a twodimes of it. I think you have a real chance of stacking either one on either a K high flop, or an 10 high flop....yeah its riskier, but obviously you stack one of them 75% of the time, and they stack you 25%....So it's really win 70 100% of the time, or win 200, 75% of the time. Clearly my analysis isn't perfect because you don't always stack them post flop, and you don't always fold them out preflop....However, if you deal in absolutes, pushing the flop is way more profitable...run over 100 times. You'd have to assign some meaningful percentages to how often you don't stack them post flop, and how often you get a preflop call here.

http://twodimes.net/h/?z=1150721
pokenum -h ad ac - ah ks - js jd
Holdem Hi: 1370754 enumerated boards
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
Ac Ad 1029590 75.11 325731 23.76 15433 1.13 0.756
Ks Ah 71292 5.20 1284029 93.67 15433 1.13 0.057
Js Jd 254439 18.56 1111628 81.10 4687 0.34 0.187

[InsertCoin]

Since you didn't reraise I would say that a push is correct here. It might confuse someone enough to call, and like previous posters said, you don't want a flop after that action.

[ajmargarine]

This is an interesting hand and I thought I would run some math on it. Djoyce and I are disagreeing about Hero's preflop action. I say a push is best. He says a stop and go would make more. Will have to make some percentage assumptions so correct me if you disagree.

Push preflop:

Figure both villians fold 75% of the time, one villian calls 20% of the time and both villians call 5% of the time. We are 80% favorite over one villian and 70% favorite over 2. Current pot is $78. $278 and $478 are the amounts we stand to win. And $192 is the amount we stand to lose if someone busts our aces.

(.75*78)=+58.5
.20*((.8*278)-(.2*192))=+36.8
.05((.7*478)-(.3*192))=+13.85

So the EV of pushing preflop is the sum of these:
+109.15EV

Stop and go:

The trouble with the stop and go should be readily apparent. If we let both villians see a free flop and then push, how are the percentages much different than above? Say they both still fold 70%? of the time. OK. But now, the 30% of the time they are calling our flop push, they are doing so with hands that have hit the flop. Even if they call with one pair type hands and we win a fair amount of the time (50%? 60%?), they are going to be calling here with hands that beat us a nice percentage of the time. And if we get called by both, we are going to lose far more times than the 30% we would lose preflop, as one of them probably has us beat after the flop for sure. So we'll say we get 70% folds, 25% called by one (60% we win) and 5% called by both (30% we win):

(.7*78)=54.6
.25*((.6*278)-(.4*192))=+22.5
.05((.3*478)-(.7*192))=+0.24

The sum of these makes the stop and go move:
+77.34EV

I think my percentage assumptions are not too far off from being correct. (especially considering the smoothcall preflop which would make it more difficult, IMO, for villians to put Hero on AA; I think he is going to get called preflop a little bit) Even if we say we win 75% of the time during the stop and go when we get one caller, it is still only +$95EV. You could manipulate these numbers some more, but I think they will always show why pushing is best here. You get the money in while you have the best hand.

The thing with the stop and go is, you're often going to get called by a hand that has hit the flop, which increases his chances of busting our AA. And that's why it is the worse EV move IMO. And the numbers seem to back that up.

[pokerjoker]

my main scare here would be hitting trip As on the flop and not winning any more money with a call.