Flopped Set - When to slow down

[Paxosmotic]

I played this hand tonight and thought it would be interesting to see when you'd slow down with a flopped set. I have 949 hands on Villain at this level. He's 19.18/10.54/2.31. He's an attractive and thinking TAG who seems to be playing well below his bankroll and is consistently outplaying the table. Villain seems to have an advanced knowledge of poker theory and is very good at putting his opponents on a hand, as well as finding good opportunities to bluff. All in all, Villain might be the greatest 1/2 player in the history of... alright, it's me. I am the Villain in this hand. From Hero's perspective, when do you slow down here? Also, what does Villain have?

PokerStars Hold'em (9 handed)converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop:Hero is UTG with K/images/graemlins/club.gif, K/images/graemlins/spade.gif.
<font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Villain 3-bets</font>, <font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, CO calls, <font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero caps</font>, Villain calls, CO calls.

Flop: (13.50 SB) A/images/graemlins/spade.gif, K/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 8/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Villain raises</font>, CO calls, <font color="#CC3333">Hero 3-bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Villain caps</font>, CO calls, Hero calls.

Turn: (12.75 BB) 5/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Villain raises</font>, CO calls, <font color="#CC3333">Hero 3-bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Villain caps</font>, CO calls, Hero calls.

River: (24.75 BB) Q/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Villain raises</font>, CO folds, <font color="#CC3333">Hero 3-bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Villain caps</font>, Hero calls.

<font color="white">I bet/call the turn and check/call the river. </font> &lt;- My answer.

[baronzeus]

AK is as likely as AA here.

I bet call turn and check-raise river sometimes, and sometimes 3bet turn and check call if capped.

[Shillx]

Don't slow down before the river. Check/call the river.

Brad

[tiltaholic]

i'd 3-bet the turn, and, seeing the cap, check call the river.

but maybe bet-calling the river is ok.

[Eeegah]

Given what I know of the villain, I cap every street confident that I'm gonna draw the fourth K and perpetuate the villain's downswing.

[Paxosmotic]

[ QUOTE ]
Given what I know of the villain, I cap every street confident that I'm gonna draw the fourth K and perpetuate the villain's downswing.

[/ QUOTE ]
I can't hear you, your avatar is making too much noise.

Interesting to see so many people keep the pedal clear to the metal on the turn (anyone 3-betting is saying to cap it because there's almost zero chance it doesn't get capped with the villain this excited about his hand).

[Dave G.]

Nice read. /images/graemlins/tongue.gif

I'd call the river and collect the overcall from CO. He could have AK, but this looks like none other than AA.

[Eeegah]

[ QUOTE ]
I can't hear you, your avatar is making too much noise.

[/ QUOTE ]

http://www.ethelthefrog.net/sa/eegah-title.gif

For sake of argument though, I slow down around the turn raise. Until I river the K, of course.

[baronzeus]

[ QUOTE ]
AK is as likely as AA here.

I bet call turn and check-raise river sometimes, and sometimes 3bet turn and check call if capped.

[/ QUOTE ]

Make sure at least 5 bets go in on the turn and river, and possibly 6.

[Paxosmotic]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
AK is as likely as AA here.

I bet call turn and check-raise river sometimes, and sometimes 3bet turn and check call if capped.

[/ QUOTE ]

Make sure at least 5 bets go in on the turn and river, and possibly 6.

[/ QUOTE ]
Hero's turn bet : "I have a monster, whee!"
Villain's turn raise : "That's [censored] outstanding, I don't care."
Hero : "Oh. Uh. Hmm."

I just don't see Hero having more than about .47% equity after Villain's turn raise.

[Reqtech]

If I was the Hero, I would add the CO to my friends list.

[Paxosmotic]

[ QUOTE ]
If I was the Hero, I would add the CO to my friends list.

[/ QUOTE ]
He said after it was a flush draw, but that makes zero sense, because the K/images/graemlins/heart.gif is on the board, and the A/images/graemlins/heart.gif is in Villain's hand, so the best possible hand he has here is Q/images/graemlins/heart.gif8/images/graemlins/heart.gif, so I think he may have been trying to save face.

[istewart]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
AK is as likely as AA here.

I bet call turn and check-raise river sometimes, and sometimes 3bet turn and check call if capped.

[/ QUOTE ]

Make sure at least 5 bets go in on the turn and river, and possibly 6.

[/ QUOTE ]

I disagree with this last part. If we put his range at AKs, AKo, and AA, with AKo/s becoming increasingly less likely as each bet goes in, we're exactly 50/50 to have the best hand on the river; not the 66% we need to be to check/raise. And since we're nearly positive he will raise if he bet, and bet/3-betting is spewing, putting one bet in seems like the best line.

[baronzeus]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
AK is as likely as AA here.

I bet call turn and check-raise river sometimes, and sometimes 3bet turn and check call if capped.

[/ QUOTE ]

Make sure at least 5 bets go in on the turn and river, and possibly 6.

[/ QUOTE ]
Hero's turn bet : "I have a monster, whee!"
Villain's turn raise : "That's [censored] outstanding, I don't care."
Hero : "Oh. Uh. Hmm."

I just don't see Hero having more than about .47% equity after Villain's turn raise.

[/ QUOTE ]



[ QUOTE ]
AK is as likely as AA here.

[/ QUOTE ]

[baronzeus]

I was only suggesting check-raising the river if you don't 3bet the turn. But 3bet and call a cap and check-call river is just as good.

Just make sure at least 5 bets go in on the turn and river.

[Paxosmotic]

I think istewart's point about each bet making it less likely Villain has AK is spot on. What started as a 50/50 shot that he has AA or AK is swaying 5% every time Villain raises.

[ QUOTE ]
AK is as likely as AA here.

[/ QUOTE ]

I thought the same thing, and I think it raises an interesting theory question. For the sake of argument, let's say the villain is as good as described, and these are the only 2 hands he can be holding. Let's consider the hand after the flop.

Obviously, if he has AA, you're dead and do not want to put any money into the pot. (As for drawing the case K, this is offset in the long run by the times the villain will draw the case A, filling your boat unfortunately for you.)

If he has AK, you will win the vast majority of the time. However, consider the villain's outs. He can draw one of two A's to fill up (offset one of these when you draw the case K for quads). Thus, the villain has 1 "effective out" to win this pot.

In essence, if the villain played this hand the same way everytime (willing to cap all streets) and had AA 50% and AK 50%, you would wind up losing money in the long run no matter what your consistent strategy (capping all the way or calling down), since you would lose to AA 50% and beat AK &lt;50% with the villain sucking out every now and then with one of two A's.

If we truly put the villain on an indistinguishable AA or AK, the best play in the long run is to fold. Thoughts?

(With all that said, this is obviously never a fold in practice, since your average low-limit player will have a much larger range of hands than just AA or AK here.)

[istewart]

[ QUOTE ]
I was only suggesting check-raising the river if you don't 3bet the turn. But 3bet and call a cap and check-call river is just as good.

Just make sure at least 5 bets go in on the turn and river.

[/ QUOTE ]

OK, no problem then.

[Reqtech]

And even if he did have Q/images/graemlins/heart.gif8/images/graemlins/heart.gif, he coldcalled 3 bets with it PF /images/graemlins/smile.gif

[baronzeus]

It's very good to see someone thinking in this forum.

However, this theory is wrong, since there is so much dead money in the pot. You only have to win the pot far less than 50% of the time after putting in a few bets on the flop to make it profitable.

[Dave G.]

I think your thoughts are spot on. However, we can only put him on AA after we've gathered sufficient evidence to do so (in other words, we can't give him credit until he caps the turn).

At the river, it's a matter of calling 1 bet. The pot is ginormous. 25.75 BB when it's to us. We're getting 25.75:1 for our money here. He probably has AA, but even if he has AK one time in 25 it's a profitable call. This is much better than 50/50 at the point that we can consider AA a possibility.

[Paxosmotic]

I'll echo that. Even if Villain flashes me his cards on the river, I've gotta call one more bet to end the suffering on the off chance I mistook his girlfriends boobs for his cards and he's actually holding QQ or something.

[ QUOTE ]
It's very good to see someone thinking in this forum.

[/ QUOTE ]

Thanks man.

[ QUOTE ]
However, this theory is wrong, since there is so much dead money in the pot. You only have to win the pot far less than 50% of the time after putting in a few bets on the flop to make it profitable.

[/ QUOTE ]

This might be correct if their are blinds from other players in the pot and if that % of the pot is great enough to offset the amount of times you get sucked out on when villain has AK. The dead money placed in the pot PF by you and the villain should not be counted as "dead". Half of it came from your stack and half from the villain's. Running this hand many times over, you will lose more then 50% of the time. Ideally, you would never get involved in the hand in the first place if you knew you had KK vs. AK/AA with that flop.

You bring up a good point about the dead money, however, if it came from other stacks. Something I didn't consider.

[istewart]

[ QUOTE ]
I'll echo that. Even if Villain flashes me his cards on the river, I've gotta call one more bet to end the suffering on the off chance I mistook his girlfriends boobs for his cards and he's actually holding QQ or something.

[/ QUOTE ]

Hahaha.

[Hornacek]

I am 100% absolutely certain that villain has JT here... fold! He has the nuts!

[shant]

Checkraise the river and call a 3-bet.

[baronzeus]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
It's very good to see someone thinking in this forum.

[/ QUOTE ]

Thanks man.

[ QUOTE ]
However, this theory is wrong, since there is so much dead money in the pot. You only have to win the pot far less than 50% of the time after putting in a few bets on the flop to make it profitable.

[/ QUOTE ]

This might be correct if their are blinds from other players in the pot and if that % of the pot is great enough to offset the amount of times you get sucked out on when villain has AK. The dead money placed in the pot PF by you and the villain should not be counted as "dead". Half of it came from your stack and half from the villain's. Running this hand many times over, you will lose more then 50% of the time. Ideally, you would never get involved in the hand in the first place if you knew you had KK vs. AK/AA with that flop.

You bring up a good point about the dead money, however, if it came from other stacks. Something I didn't consider.

[/ QUOTE ]

Something to note is that the money you put in on the flop IS indeed dead money. You can't give him credit for AA until he shows you that he deserves it. And by that time, the put is enormous, even heads up.

You're right, most of the time you play with this flop with AA-AK, you will lose. Too bad the pot is already like 12BBs .

[Paxosmotic]

[ QUOTE ]
Checkraise the river and call a 3-bet.

[/ QUOTE ]
Capping the turn?

[ QUOTE ]
Something to note is that the money you put in on the flop IS indeed dead money. You can't give him credit for AA until he shows you that he deserves it. And by that time, the put is enormous, even heads up.

You're right, most of the time you play with this flop with AA-AK, you will lose. Too bad the pot is already like 12BBs .

[/ QUOTE ]

You're exactly right here. If you were already in the spot where 12 BB were in the pot, you would probably not want to fold since you'd consistently be giving up those 12 BB. I'd have to crunch the numbers to be certain, but with such a large pot, I'd guess it's definitely correct to call down, since you can take down those 12 BB a good % of the time. Thanks for pointing this out, Zeus.