AKo what do you think?

[QTip]

I'm going to post this street by street...

UTG+2 seems fairly solid so far...just getting started there. There was 1 hand where I thought he was too passive...but that's all I know so far.

MP3 has literally played every hand for the last hour. I've not seen him raise but twice and I've seen him call with AKo, and but raised AKs. I've not seen him out of control, yet. Just calls, calls, calls and sometimes raises postflop with 2 pair or better. He's the reason I'm at this table.

Party Poker 10/20 Hold'em (9 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is CO with K/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, A/images/graemlins/spade.gif.
<font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">UTG+1 raises</font>, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, MP3 calls, <font color="#CC3333">Hero 3-bets</font>, <font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, UTG+1 calls, <font color="#CC3333">MP3 caps</font>, Hero calls, UTG+1 calls.

Flop: (13.50 SB) 9/images/graemlins/spade.gif, K/images/graemlins/spade.gif, Q/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
UTG+1 checks, <font color="#CC3333">MP3 bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, UTG+1 calls, <font color="#CC3333">MP3 3-bets</font>, Hero calls, UTG+1 calls.

Thoughts here...???

Edit: Also...at the start of this hand, fish has only $127. I don't know if he's capable of stacking off or not.

[QTip]

Flop: 9 /images/graemlins/spade.gifK /images/graemlins/spade.gifQ /images/graemlins/spade.gif

Turn: (11.25 BB) T/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
UTG+1 checks, <font color="#CC3333">MP3 bets</font>, Hero calls

Thoughts here?

[QTip]

UTG+1 calls

Board: 9 /images/graemlins/spade.gifK /images/graemlins/spade.gifQ /images/graemlins/spade.gifT /images/graemlins/heart.gif

River: (14.25 BB) K/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
UTG+1 checks, <font color="#CC3333">MP3 bets</font>, Hero ?

Thoughts here?

Edit: Again, after fish bets here, he as $17 left.

[Nick C]

It seems all right to me so far.

I'm thinking you're probably hoping for your flush to come in.

And I wouldn't go too nuts if it came in with the J /images/graemlins/spade.gif or T /images/graemlins/spade.gif.

Edit: All right, now that I know MP3 began the hand short-stacked, I'm a little bit more tempted to cap the flop.

[NickRegino]

I like it you have a redraw to the nuts. I would check call the rest of the way. of he checks the turn I bet the river. If a spade comes thats a no brainer.

[BWebb]

I'd choose one of two lines.

Line 1) Cap the flop. If bet into on the turn, call. Bet if checked to, with the intention of checking behind on river unimproved.

Line 2) Call the flop 3-bet, raise the turn in hopes of a free showdown. Bet river if you catch a spade.

[thejameser]

why no flop cap?

[QTip]

[ QUOTE ]
why no flop cap?

[/ QUOTE ]

I felt I was behind at this point. A cap is something to consider here for sure. However, I thought if I improved on the turn, he'll bet into me again, and I can make it 2 on the bigger street. I'm not thinking about taking a free card on the turn. If it gets checked to me on the turn, I'm going to assume I was really ahead on the flop and bet there.

[thejameser]

that's what i was looking for; that's why i liked your line anyway. people may say pump the 4 flush for value, but you do have a made hand as well, not just a draw. and no, i would not be giving any free cards here. are you trying to decide to raise the river or call?

[QTip]

[ QUOTE ]
are you trying to decide to raise the river or call?

[/ QUOTE ]

That's really why I posted the hand. I found to it be a pretty difficult decision with a lot of different angles to be considered.

[chief444]

So the questions to ask are:

1) How often do you think you're ahead here (of MP3 and UTG+1)?
2) Will UTG+1 ever fold AK?

As you already know Owen I think the answers are 1) Not a lot and 2) little to no chance. So I think you played it fine start to finish.

[meep_42]

I'd consider capping, and upon thinking about it now, i'd do it. Cold-call/cap pf from the fish gets no respect from me. Also, if I can, I want to get a side pot from UTG+1 who we're probably ahead of here.

On the turn, you have problems, one of the few reasonable hands for UTG+1 just passed you (J/images/graemlins/spade.gifJ), you have the A/images/graemlins/spade.gif, so there's really not much of his that you beat now as he'd have likely folded AQ with no spade on the flop.
(UTG hand range - KQs, T/images/graemlins/spade.gifT, 99, J/images/graemlins/spade.gifJ, QQ, AK (?) - Fish hand range - 2 cards, maybe a spade, maybe a J.)
So, on the turn, I think you have to call and improve to a flush to have the best hand.

When the river K comes you have 2 options -- call and hope your kings are best (seems unlikely that you're ahead of UTG+1 to me) or raise and hope to fold out JJ/AK, nothing else is folding.

So, to sum, I like a flop cap, turn call, and on the river I have no idea -- This just seems like one of those times you don't want an overcaller, but the parlay that you are ahead of the fish (he'd need to be tilting off his last $ or have specifically Q9) and UTG will lay down a better hand seems far too unlikely to me. Pot is large, call and pray.

-d

[HolyBejeesus]

The river seems like an easy call, because the only thing you are ahead of is AA. Am I missing something?

[meep_42]

[ QUOTE ]
The river seems like an easy call, because the only thing you are ahead of is AA. Am I missing something?

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm actually leaning a lot to a fold on the river, unless the solid UTG+1 would play aces with no spade this way.

-d

[chief444]

He's ahead of or chopping with UTG+1 almost all of the time on this river. He's ahead of MP3 often enough. No way he should fold.

[callmedonnie]

This is tough. A passive fish wakes up and pulls the call and then reraise move. That screams of a big hand but at the same time he has very little $ left. He may just be gambling for the rest of it. It looks like he spent about 1/2 of it on the pot so far.

I play the flop the same way. I don't know what to think about UTG and I am scared of passive player suddenly getting aggressive. From my experience, a guy like that will lose the last of his chips in the same consistent bleeding he has all night.

I think I c/c turn unless I hit a spade, or unless UTG leads, and MP3 raises. Then I might have to find a fold.

[Shillx]

This hand makes my head hurt man. The only logical holding for UTG+1 is K /images/graemlins/heart.gif J /images/graemlins/spade.gif. I'm pretty sure that he has the J /images/graemlins/spade.gif the way the action has gone down. We can throw A /images/graemlins/diamond.gif J /images/graemlins/spade.gif out the window when he check/calls the turn. It is hard to have him on 2-pair or a set the way he played it (even if he did have a set, the river didn't help him at all). I'm not too worried about what he holds, so I like calling on the end because I have no idea what MP3 holds and I really don't want to get 3-bet in this spot.

Brad

[callmedonnie]

[ QUOTE ]
He's ahead of or chopping with UTG+1 almost all of the time on this river. He's ahead of MP3 often enough. No way he should fold.

[/ QUOTE ]

Agreed.

[HolyBejeesus]

[ QUOTE ]
The only logical holding for UTG+1 is K /images/graemlins/heart.gif J /images/graemlins/spade.gif.

[/ QUOTE ]

Based on QTip's read, I think 9 /images/graemlins/heart.gif2 /images/graemlins/spade.gif is just as likely.

EDIT: looks like I mixed up the reads... that changes a lot.

[Shillx]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
The only logical holding for UTG+1 is K /images/graemlins/heart.gif J /images/graemlins/spade.gif.

[/ QUOTE ]

Based on QTip's read, I think 9 /images/graemlins/heart.gif2 /images/graemlins/spade.gif is just as likely.

[/ QUOTE ]

You have the reads messed up. A solid player isn't going to raise 92o in EP.

Brad

[QTip]

[ QUOTE ]
The river seems like an easy call, because the only thing you are ahead of is AA. Am I missing something?

[/ QUOTE ]

Well...I like the call more the more I look at it, but at the time, I was thinking about what in the world UTG+1 is holding. I can't be 3 bet by MP3, but that also means that if I raise to try to get rid of a chop (this was the only hand I could think UTG+1 plays this way..besides maybe JJ), he can call 2 knowing he won't be 3 bet either...making it an easier call for him with those hands.

[HolyBejeesus]

Sorry, I got the reads mixed up before. It is pretty strange that MP3 just freaked out this hand. Seems like he has AA? Is this what you were thinking when you played the hand?

[QTip]

[ QUOTE ]
and I really don't want to get 3-bet in this spot.

Brad

[/ QUOTE ]

MP3 can't 3 bet you here.....so maybe you're talking about a c/r from UTG+1...but I certainly wouldn't go for it if I were him.

Definitely call the river. Definitely do not raise the river. You are ahead often enough to make this call but if you raise and are called you are behind.

[thejameser]

FWIW, i am not even thinking about raising this river.

[QTip]

[ QUOTE ]
Sorry, I got the reads mixed up before. It is pretty strange that MP3 just freaked out this hand. Seems like he has AA? Is this what you were thinking when you played the hand?

[/ QUOTE ]

I was at a total loss with his hand...as mentioned in this thread, normally a loose passive looses his stack the way he always done..calling with everything.

he had gotten down to nothing at one point about an hour earlier...then went on a hot streak, went up to $600. Recently he just made his way back down to where he was at from some pretty nice suckouts from others.

I just wasn't sure here if he was tilting from that happening, stacking off, or had QQ or what....I had no idea what to think of him here.

[meep_42]

[ QUOTE ]
He's ahead of or chopping with UTG+1 almost all of the time on this river. He's ahead of MP3 often enough. No way he should fold.

[/ QUOTE ]

What's UTG's hand range then? AA and AK only?

-d

[chief444]

Not only. But most of the time, yes. I don't think he checks the turn with a J...especially not the J /images/graemlins/spade.gif. I don't think he flopped two pair or better. It seems unlikely he would just check/call with those. But this is a scary enough flop for AK/AA without a spade (which obviously all combos left are spadeless) that he may just be trying to get to showdown.

[QTip]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
He's ahead of or chopping with UTG+1 almost all of the time on this river. He's ahead of MP3 often enough. No way he should fold.

[/ QUOTE ]

What's UTG's hand range then? AA and AK only?

-d

[/ QUOTE ]

He was about 19/11, but like I said...I noticed he had been a bit passive a couple of hands previous...but who knows what that means after just observing that 1 hand postflop.

[QTip]

[ QUOTE ]
Not only. But most of the time, yes. I don't think he checks the turn with a J...especially not the J /images/graemlins/spade.gif. I don't think he flopped two pair or better. It seems unlikely he would just check/call with those. But this is a scary enough flop for AK/AA without a spade (which obviously all combos left are spadeless) that he may just be trying to get to showdown.

[/ QUOTE ]

he didn't cap PF either...so I wanted to rule out AA, and I would think at least AKs...don't know about AKo, but I would think so...to me this probably makes the river a call here because these hands are less likely to be in his hand.

[chief444]

yeah...I misread preflop. I didn't realize MP3 limp/capped. I love party poker. Anyway, I think he's got AK here almost always.

[QTip]

[ QUOTE ]
yeah...I misread preflop. I didn't realize MP3 limp/capped. I love party poker. Anyway, I think he's got AK here almost always.

[/ QUOTE ]

See now...if you felt that way about UTG+1's hand, I think you need to raise this river.

[chief444]

Well, you know I felt that way even earlier. But as I said he didn't call down all this way to fold the river improved. Plus, you still need to be ahead of MP3 enough to make it valueable and given the read I didn't think you were. And...if you're chopping with UTG this is especially true...since you may just be giving MP3 an extra $40 with the raise. I just don't see him ever folding here.

[QTip]

Here's how it went down...

I kept trying to widdle down, I felt like there was a decent combined chance that MP was FOS or I just riverd him...still didn't have a lock on UTG+1, then I pressed call...then it hit me that this guy probably has an AKo without a spade, and immediately said "XXXX", wishing I would have raised.

However, given me read on MP, there still was a decent chance that the river K meant nothing, and I would be just donating to his cause...

So...I do think it's close....but the chances he folds it are pretty slim, but I still think it would be a pretty tough call, but the fact that he can't be 3 bet and already made it that far only to hit trips makes it less likely that he folds it out..

So..UTG+1 calls. Turns over a AKo without a spade and MP turns over 94o without a spade who was indeed stacking off.

So...chief tells me to take my half and be happy; however, I have a 3rd child on the way (a boy we found out yesterday), and I want that whole frickin pot!!! LOL! Thought it was a fun hand though.

[meep_42]

Well, maybe i'm reading too much into the info provided by Q that he will go passive too early.

-d

[chief444]

To be fair, I knew the results before he posted it though. Although my responses here were the same as I gave Owen earlier. But you're probably right that some others are more possible. Either way though I do think he needs to call the river and I do think that raising the river is worse than calling.

[meep_42]

And, for the record, i'm not folding here, either.

But, yes, there's only 1 hand you're folding on the river, and that isn't folding much. (AA isn't really on my radar from a 19/11 guy with a cold-caller)

-d

[QTip]

[ QUOTE ]
And, for the record, i'm not folding here, either.

But, yes, there's only 1 hand you're folding on the river, and that isn't folding much. (AA isn't really on my radar from a 19/11 guy with a cold-caller)

-d

[/ QUOTE ]

Me either, but I thought AKo was pretty possible after a solid player 3 bet his EP raise and MP caller where this hand was probably going to showdown, I don't really blame him for his call here as he'll be playing OP, I don't this his call PF is horrible although I probably cap it.