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View Full Version : Preseason- any predictive value?


Easy E
08-16-2005, 01:30 PM
Has anyone had solid success in the past, using preseason games to truly evaluate a team's potential for the regular season?

Or, like I, do you generally ignore the games and wait until the first few regular-season contests before placing serious NFL wagers?

You'd think that the lines would be the softest for the first few games, making the preseason evaluation important, but I'm wondering if that's true.

CCx, Big Al, natedogg, bugstud, anyone?

CCx
08-16-2005, 04:47 PM
i tend to ignore the preseason betting unless there's something major going on - i.e. inclement weather, serious depleting injuries to the offense/defense, etc.... i do follow most teams' training camps generally to see if there's anything noteworthy that would make me think to look at a game that week...

you do have to be careful when using preseason games to evaluate an upcoming season however - using the eagles (duh) as an example, they historically show absolutely no blitz packages during the preseason (besides the general tecmo bowl type blitzes), so even if they really suck it up in the preseason defensively (as they have in the past), they can come out week 1 and just completely flatten an opponent with unseen packages.... you have to know what the team's goals are with the preseason games, for the most part this 'rule' applies to a lot of teams but some teams really open up the playbook, especially those that have a lot of young starters, a new coach, etc. -- just have to be very observant so that you dont get smashed in week 1

i think that by looking at these preseason games and studying what's going on in the camps can really get you some good value in week 1 where others might shy away or make uninformed/sucker bets