Taking on the Large Stack Near Bubble?

[HonestPete]

Hi,

Interesting situation arose the other day, where top 4 get paid, and its down to the last 6 people. I have T4500 and chip leader has T8000, rest players have considerably less than us, all around T1500-T2500.

Blinds are only 50-100 and there are currently no antes involved..i find myself with JJ in the BB. all fold to button who is chip leader. whom makes it T1000 to go!! normally he raises prefop a lot but around 300-500, this was strange. I folded this hand as I ddint see the point in calling or re-raising all in. If i call, and flop comes low or high im screwed either way, as hell bet me all in. If i re-raise all in he is bound to call with that huge raise he made...

As the blinds were so small, was it correct to fold and carry on playing as the 2nd large stack and pick up lots of small pots here and there or should I have grown some balls and called?


All comments and suggestions appreciated.

[Greg (FossilMan)]

What are the chances he held QQ-AA? AK, AQ, KQ, or JJ? TT-22? Ax, Kx, or Qx, where x is J or below? Jx? Tx or below?

Do the math, and see how much edge you have. If it's a positive edge and more than about 20%, don't fold. If it's less, fold.

Later, Greg Raymer (FossilMan)

[ohkanada]

I think folding is fine assuming you have not seen him make this type of raise and you are not sure what type of hand he has. Huge overbets pre-flop are often AK, but some players do this with QQ/KK and others with 22/33.

Ken Poklitar

[HonestPete]

Thanks for the reply's, but perhaps I didn'd make myself clear. I was asking if the reason behind folding was correct. My reasoning was that by folding, I would maintain the current chip stack size, and to allow myself to further enhance my stack SLOWLY but surely by stealing blinds and small pots instead of taking an unknown risk against the only player that could eliminate me.

Thanks

HonestPete

[Greg (FossilMan)]

Unless it's the flop or later and you've got the nuts that cannot get outdrawn, it is always an unknown risk. At best, you might now that your opponent is a big dog to beat you no matter what he's holding. You must take on risk at some point.

My answer to your question is, if you judge your edge to be sufficiently high, then it really doesn't matter about that other stuff, you should take the risk now, as it will likely make you more money than NOT taking the risk.

There are factors that influence this other than the pure math, but these are largely player dependent. For example, if you have a group of opponents you can read like a book, then you can pass on an all-in pot where your edge is known but not huge, because your reads will quickly get you into situations that are much better. This is rare, and only true for the really great players, for the most part.

Later, Greg Raymer (FossilMan)