Deeper analysis of a standard situation - overpair vs. TAG

[JrJordan]

Villain is an aggressive, thinking TAG. We're both at the table because SB is bleeding chips as an overaggro 70/30 LAG. We've both been isolating him a fair bit and staying otu of each other's way (though I do remember him cold calling 3-bets once from the SB PF). His CO raising standards here are fairly wide, but he is well aware that SB is calling with nearly any 2 and that I will defend pretty liberally.

Party Poker 5/10 Hold'em (6 max, 6 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is BB with Q/images/graemlins/heart.gif, Q/images/graemlins/club.gif.
<font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">CO raises</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, SB calls, <font color="#CC3333">Hero 3-bets</font>, CO calls, SB calls.

Flop: (9 SB) J/images/graemlins/club.gif, 2/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 4/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
SB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, CO calls, SB folds.

Turn: (5.50 BB) 6/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">CO raises</font>, Hero...

Typical situation of call down or 3-bet. Against LAG's it's usually an easy 3-bet. Against passives an easy call down. So what about this player?

My thinking: CO could be doing this with a wide range of hands. If he has me keyed on a hand like AK/AQ, he could be raising this turn with a pocket pair 55-TT, set possibilities 44,66,JJ, or a slowplayed AJ/KJ/QJ. He's not overly tricky to just call PF with AA/KK, so I'm confident my overpair is highest. Also, I can probably rule JJ out since this would fit the PF cap category.

So what happens in each scenario if I just call? In nearly every case he bets the river, I call, 1BB more in the pot winner or loser. He is a pretty relentless value bettor, so I think he'd even bet a mid PP hoping for me to call with AK.

Now, if I 3-bet here's the possibilities:
66,44 - Cap the turn and I lose an extra BB by calling down, though an argument could be made for folding to the cap (in the moment I'd probably call down though).
lower PP - Likely fold to the 3-bet
Jx - Likely calls 3-bet and a bet on the river UI.

So I guess the question remains, does he have Jx often enough for this 3-bet to be better than a call down?

[JrJordan]

I've been thinking about this some more and would like to get some feedback on it. I think this could be a solid 3-bet if I'm willing to fold to a cap (and against this guy that seems fairly reasonable since it's doubtful he'd do so with AJ, against a more LAG player I'd have to call down). That way I pay the same 3BB vs a set as I would by just calling down and don't lose anything extra. Then it becomes a comparison of the value 3-bet vs. a Jx hand, vs possibly inducing a bluff or "value bet" from a lower pocket pair on the river by just calling. Since I feel a J is far more likely then the 3-bet makes the most sense here.

Taking the set possibilities out of play I think this is an easy 3-bet. I'm curious what you guys think about it though if I can't fold to a turn cap.