Set of 7's

[McNeese72]

I haven't posted a hand in awhile, but this hand had me scratching my head. I had only played a couple dozen hands with the villain and his numbers weren't too bad. When he really became aggressive on the turn, I was thinking he probably had a straight but it was hard for me to back off. When I made a boat on the river, I was feeling good and then he reraised me.

What does the villain have and should keep the pedal to the metal?

How should I have played this hand on the turn and the river?

PokerStars 0.25/0.50 Hold'em (9 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is BB with 7/images/graemlins/club.gif, 7/images/graemlins/diamond.gif.
<font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, UTG+1 calls, MP1 calls, MP2 calls, <font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, SB :#A500AF(Villain)/ completes, Hero checks.

Flop: (5 SB) 9/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 7/images/graemlins/spade.gif, Q/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="#0000FF">(5 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Villain bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, UTG+1 calls, MP1 folds, MP2 folds, Villain calls.

Turn: (5.50 BB) J/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Villain bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, UTG+1 calls, <font color="#CC3333">Villain 3-bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero caps</font>, UTG+1 folds, Villain calls.

River: (15.50 BB) 9/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Villain bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Villain 3-bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero ?</font>

[Dave G.]

...folds?

I cap this somewhere near the vicinity of 100% of the time. Villain has QJ.

[davelin]

[ QUOTE ]
Villain has QJ.

[/ QUOTE ]

If Villain here has QJ I'll eat my hat.

[jrz1972]

Easy cap.

If you were playing live and didn't have a cap HU, it would be interesting to debate how many more raises to put in, but this particular decision isn't interesting at all. If your two-card boat loses to a bigger two-card boat or quads, you're supposed to lose a ton of money.

[jrz1972]

As long as we're guessing hands for villain, I am guessing he had QQ since the OP was confused about the way the hand played out.

A more realistic guess is something like KT.

[Dave G.]

Careful. I said that in another post and guess what happened...

Anyway, on second thought the river probably sways me away from QJ, but from the perspective of the turn I think it's reasonable. I don't see villain leading a flop like this with KT very often, but another set is likely having reconsidered the river action.

[McNeese72]

Well, I capped the river. I'll tell you what the villain had later.

[macdaddy991]

If villan shows you a higher boat, then thank party for their cap limit.

[McNeese72]

[ QUOTE ]
but another set is likely having reconsidered the river action.

[/ QUOTE ]

But if I had been the villain, I would have been raising pre-flop with 99, JJ, or QQ.

[grjr]

If I'm in this hand then Villain has J9 99.2% of the time. I don't cap the river for sanity reasons.

92s. cap it.

[UATrewqaz]

Cap it, what's an extra bet at this point, the pot is huge and you've won or the pot is huge and you've lost. You flopped a set, turned a full house, it's rare you lose these hands and on those occasions you do you can expect to lose alot on the hand.

I'm curious, is this really that hard of a decision for you? Would you really lay this down instead of putting in one more bet? This is an easy cap IMO. You may lose to a bigger boat say, 5% of the time, but the rest of the time you'll be punishing him for overplaying his hand.

I just can't see laying this down.

[istewart]

[ QUOTE ]
Cap it, what's an extra bet at this point, the pot is huge and you've won or the pot is huge and you've lost. You flopped a set, turned a full house, it's rare you lose these hands and on those occasions you do you can expect to lose alot on the hand.

[/ QUOTE ]

What the hell is this???

[A_K]

Grunch.

Cap and don't think twice. Villian probably has QJ, maybe the straight.

Edit: on further reflection (and on reading the other posts), this hand range is too narrow. I wouldn't be completely surprised to see a slow-played QQ here, or maybe K10.

[deception5]

I think T8 is the most likely holding.

[istewart]

I think a cap seems alright, but it's not an easy decision as everyone is portraying it to be (i.e. I do not think he gives this action with QJ).

I think this is a pretty safe range for Villain, and as you can see if you include the *small* number of times he has QJ it pushes this to a cap, but just barely.

Board: 9h 9d Jh 7s Qd
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 66.6667 % 66.67% 00.00% { 7c7d }
Hand 2: 33.3333 % 33.33% 00.00% { Q9s, T8s, 97s, Q9o, T8o, 97o }

[Guthrie]

[ QUOTE ]
If I'm in this hand then Villain has J9 99.2% of the time. I don't cap the river for sanity reasons.

[/ QUOTE ]

QJ seems like a good bet on the villain's hand considering flop and turn action, but I would tend to think he would just call the river after the board paired and you raised.

Q9 seems unlikely considering his unwillingness to reraise the flop, and his willingness to cap the turn.

J9 seems possible but only if the villain is known to be aggressive, since he would have been betting out the flop with middle pair to a medium sized field. (Considering the OP's setup of the hand, which we'll try to ignore, this could be it.)

T8 seems to make the most sense on all streets. Villain tried to bet out the flop and push away overcards or get odds to draw to his outside straight. He called down the flop reraise and his hand hit on the turn, betting it hard subsequently.

[hemstock]

I cap it as well.

[bozlax]

...caps. You're still behind 99/JJ/QQ, just as you were when you capped the turn, and you cap the river for the same reason: you're good more often than not. Unless Villan is uber-passive preflop (maybe just from the blinds), he would've raised any of these holdings; against an unknown, you can't make that kind of read.

[bozlax]

[ QUOTE ]
what's an extra bet at this point

[/ QUOTE ]

Huh? You don't throw away a bet for the reasons you gave, UA. "A bet saved is a bet won," and all that.

However, in this case that doesn't apply. You've got a monster, and if it gets eaten by a bigger monster, so be it, but you can't pass up profitable opportunities like this, blah, blah, blah.

[Amerretto]

*grunch*

Cap it, my guess is he hit his straight. I reckon I'm ahead here more often than not.

[deception5]

[ QUOTE ]
{ Q9s, T8s, 97s, Q9o, T8o, 97o }

[/ QUOTE ]

I would add KT to this range, maybe QQ/QJ/99 as well if the villian is terrible.

Edit: JJ too if he doesn't raise preflop.

[McNeese72]

Let me know if you guys want to know what he had.

[ QUOTE ]
Let me know if you guys want to know what he had.

[/ QUOTE ]

Umm, yes.

[istewart]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
{ Q9s, T8s, 97s, Q9o, T8o, 97o }

[/ QUOTE ]

I would add KT to this range, maybe QQ/QJ/99 as well if the villian is terrible.

Edit: JJ too if he doesn't raise preflop.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think QQ/JJ can be nearly completely discounted because of the lack of a preflop raise. I don't understand why people are putting him on KT. Why would he fire on this flop with KT?

[ QUOTE ]
Let me know if you guys want to know what he had.

[/ QUOTE ]

Actually, I'd rather hear what you did.

[deception5]

[ QUOTE ]
I think QQ/JJ can be nearly completely discounted because of the lack of a preflop raise.

[/ QUOTE ]

Agreed.

[ QUOTE ]
I don't understand why people are putting him on KT. Why would he fire on this flop with KT?

[/ QUOTE ]

Many players will bet if they would call a bet. Less likely than T8 but not outside of the realm of possibility.

[McNeese72]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Let me know if you guys want to know what he had.

[/ QUOTE ]

Actually, I'd rather hear what you did.

[/ QUOTE ]

Oh, I capped it without hesitation. If he had a bigger hand than me, oh well, that's poker and time to move on to the next hand.

My guess is he has 10-9. I definitely think you should cap it also.

[Dave G.]

Results already. /images/graemlins/tongue.gif

[MrWookie47]

I'll speculate that hero lost to the hand that would cause him maximum frustration: 97o.

[McNeese72]

[ QUOTE ]
I'll speculate that hero lost to the hand that would cause him maximum frustration: 97o.

[/ QUOTE ]

No, the villain had QQ. Worked for him this time but will cost him money in the long run not raising them pre-flop.

[jrz1972]

[ QUOTE ]
No, the villain had QQ.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm a genius. /images/graemlins/cool.gif