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View Full Version : PLO, Variance and Profitability vs Furthering NLHE Game


fimbulwinter
08-16-2005, 07:28 AM
I apologize in advance if these are newbie questions and if i sound ignorant of this game, esp for the stakes im describing.

I've been playing in a 5/10 PLO game recently and have been riding quite a gigantic wave of variance. my first session in the game (the two PLO hands i posted were from that game) saw me losing 6K and the two subsequent sessions have had me winning a little over 4 each. I'm happy with the returns, but the variance is insane to a NLHE player (i know, we're coddled WRT variance vs limit and PLO) especially when i reviewed the big hands i played in each session VIA twodimes.

in session one, i put my money in with a massive pot equity edge (>90%) twice, put it in as a 65/35 dog twice, put it in 55/45 and 65/35 favorite 4 times and once i was drawing stone dead (the quads over FH hand).

I guess the question i have is this:

Are these typical overlays in this game? are you basically trying to maintain a 60% general overlay on your big hands and allowing the variance to iron itself out long term?

In general when im putting the money in at holdem, the overlay is much higher, but it happens many fewer times per session. if i worked out the EV of all my omaha vs holdem hands they'd likely be similar however the SD's, i'd guess, would not.

Sometimes i can't find 4 tables of NL, so i'd like to add this game to my repertoire. my bankroll is very sufficient for much higher stakes holdem, so i'd assume it can handle omaha, but if the risk/reward ratio is just so high, i'd rather concentrate on further developing my NLHE game.

so is it worth it? any comments from big bet holdem players cum PLOites and anyone else welcome.

fim

josie_wales
08-16-2005, 10:48 AM
Fim,
Omaha is as you know not nearly as popular as Holdem. Yet it often attracts holdem players due to its large pots.

Most of these players play omaha as if its holdem re: the way they value their hands.

Now is the time to get into omaha as you can be well ahead of the learning curve and just wait for others to come in and try to learn when you already know how to play.

As far as if it is worth it? I say yes for a few reasons.

1) If you learn how to play it right, the rewards are much, much greater

2) There are TONS of mistakes that players make in Omaha...you can capitalize on them

3) [ QUOTE ]
are you basically trying to maintain a 60% general overlay on your big hands and allowing the variance to iron itself out long term?


[/ QUOTE ] As far as the percents you use, I am not sure...But I think you know the answer to the variance question.

4) [ QUOTE ]
i'd rather concentrate on further developing my NLHE game.

[/ QUOTE ]

It does not have to be one or the other...I feel that playing omaha actually HELPS my NLHE game for a few reasons.

Mostly keeps me from getting too bored with one game. Keeps me fresh. Allows me to view different styles of play and adapt/alter them into my HE game

good luck

jw

LA_Price
08-16-2005, 11:58 AM
You are right that the variance is indeed higher. This is why limit Hold'em and NLHE Tournaments are so popular and games like razz and stud/8 are not. Games with low variances eventually die out. I think you should definetely learn to play this game as I suspect it will become more popular in the next few years. Already the 10/20 PLO on party is probably the most profitable game on the net next to the big UB games.

It's typical in this game to be putting lots of money in with smaller edges than you would have in NL Hold'em.

If you wan't to lower your variance in this game you can pass on some of the very close plays. Another thing is to determine if the game you're in is tight or loose. In a weak tight game where you can win with lots of bluffs and semi-bluffs I suspect you could achieve a similar win rate and lower variance than in a loose passive game.

Remember to keep a proper bankroll as well. For No Limit the establish bankroll i believe is 20 buyins but for PLO you should probably have around 30. But this of course depends on your win rate and standard deviation. For example say you had these stats for the two games.

NL Hold'em 2/4 Win rate $80/Hr, Std Dev $287/Hr
Pot-Limit Omaha 2/4 Win rate $80/Hr, Std $335/HR

The recommended bankroll on statking is $3000 for NL but $4200 for PLO so it's definetely a swingier game.

Later,
LA_Price

Tilt
08-16-2005, 12:05 PM
Fim,

I think its a great game to add to your repertoire in general. A solid, thinking poker player can extract more $ from losing players at PLO simply because more money ends up in the pot more often than in NLHE.

The variance you describes sounds consistent with the fact that 1) you are learning the game (and doing so on a higher stakes playing field than the average student) and 2) you are probably playing more shorthanded games...which in my experience leads to greater variance due to the fact that you need to make more moves and seek to snap off more bluffs in such a game.

I think it improves your NLHE game, but not alot. Specifically it has helped me with planning pot control in NLHE contests, and in thinking through those multiway crazy pots in loose games (since thats like most pots in PLO).

I would recommend you spend some time in full ring games before playing alot of shorthanded ones. I played a lot of full ring limit Omaha (which is like watching paint dry) as a training ground and found it very helpful in getting you acclimated to some of the basic probabilities/situations. I also would not recommend multitabling NLHE and PLO games at the same time. I have made some dumb mistakes doing so trying to switch my brain between HE and PLO rules rapidly. You might have a better brain for that though.

Ribbo
08-16-2005, 02:44 PM
If you lack the mental strength to deal with the huge swings of the game, you will be completely destroyed by it and the ensuing tilt that follows. Be certain you are a winning player before you sit down and play, because sometimes it takes months to realise. Omaha is such a fickle mistress that idiots can win a fortune never once suspecting that they are actually bad.

Tilt
08-16-2005, 04:37 PM
[ QUOTE ]
If you lack the mental strength to deal with the huge swings of the game, you will be completely destroyed by it and the ensuing tilt that follows. Be certain you are a winning player before you sit down and play, because sometimes it takes months to realise. Omaha is such a fickle mistress that idiots can win a fortune never once suspecting that they are actually bad.

[/ QUOTE ]

LOL

He clearly doesnt know who he is responding to.

Whaddya say Fim, you think you are a winning player?

Ribbo
08-16-2005, 09:17 PM
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
If you lack the mental strength to deal with the huge swings of the game, you will be completely destroyed by it and the ensuing tilt that follows. Be certain you are a winning player before you sit down and play, because sometimes it takes months to realise. Omaha is such a fickle mistress that idiots can win a fortune never once suspecting that they are actually bad.

[/ QUOTE ]

LOL

He clearly doesnt know who he is responding to.

Whaddya say Fim, you think you are a winning player?

[/ QUOTE ]

Last time I checked this was a message board, and comments are there for everyone to read. All my comments are made irrespective of the limit or the player, because that's the most useful responce to give. Since I see no poker content in your post, why did you make it?

fimbulwinter
08-16-2005, 10:47 PM
first off, let me say thank you to all the people who responded. the responses have been awesome.

just a few points to clarify:

typically in my NLHE game, there are 4 very solid and tough playes, 1 or 2 weak tights who aren't worth much long term and 3-4 very bad players who dump cash like it's going out of style.

conversely, there is usually one plo game going with 2-3 terrible LAGs and 1 very very good PLO player who plays 200NL normally. he's a middle eastern guy and said he doesn't get NLHE, FWIW.

so the full ring PLO game really isnt an option, but i really prefer shorthanded play in general- it's where i learned NLHE and LHE.

as for my BR, it's many times larger than needed, so it's mroe a psychological bankroll thing for me. i've never had more than an 8 buyin slide at NLHE (happened this week too) and i can see such a slide happening at PLO very easily.

I'll admit that i too was drawn by the big pot sizes and by the fact that i've seen the PLO guy sitting with 10K+ many times. Idon't think i've ever had that much at a NLHE table. i mean he could be into the game for a bit, but still, that's a grip of cash.

as for the question of whether i make my own variance, i think that's a very good question. i think i'm so used to pushing every angle in NLHE, that i sling it in quite a bit in PLO as well. i think i could turn out a nice winrate peddling the nuts at these lags.

well that's about it.

fim

Tilt
08-16-2005, 11:52 PM
[quote

[/ QUOTE ]

Last time I checked this was a message board, and comments are there for everyone to read. All my comments are made irrespective of the limit or the player, because that's the most useful responce to give. Since I see no poker content in your post, why did you make it?

[/ QUOTE ]

You very condescingly addressed one of the best online NLHE players on 2+2 like he was a total noob.

barongreenback
08-17-2005, 02:55 AM
Can someone post their standard deviation / 100 hands (session tab in PT, click more detail) so we can put a number on this. I don't think mine has settled down yet.

BluffTHIS!
08-17-2005, 07:16 AM
fim,

As the other posters noted, the variance is indeed higher at any limit of plo compared to nl. The tighter you play, especially in early positions, the less it will be. It does not usually pay to play lots of drawing hands in early positions with aggressive players behind you. I play mostly the 5/10 and 10/20 blind games and it is true there as well. At those levels, you don't have as many of the passive calling stations that make nut peddling so profitable at lower levels. But you do have a lot of passive/aggressive players who will pay for thin draws in position but who are also very aggressive bluffers when a different draw hits on the turn or river and you check. Thus it is imperative that you stick to the principle of 4 cards working together so that when you have a set or 2 pair you will also frequently have some draws as defense as well. Regarding having hands with overlays, it is not necessarily the amount of an overlay you have as the odds you are getting on your money that is important regarding draws. And it is critical to realize when other players are drawing with you and thus factor in splits, which would often dictate folding where you would be glad to play a big enough draw headsup with a player holding a set.

And as to ribbo's comments, forget them cuz he's a well-known prick. Being a winning player at a lower level doesn't translate into being one at a higher one and you already know that so he didn't need to state it. But just like in nl, the worst players at the higher levels are much better than the worst ones at lower levels, and sometimes even than the weak-tights at lower levels since they are very adept at using their position to pressure and bluff effectively.

Since I frequently see you in the high stakes nl forum I know you know that game well, but don't recall if you play much pl holdem. If you don't, then you do need to make sure you are aware of important differences between pl and nl and how that affects correct play. So rereading Ciaffone & Reuben's PL&NL Poker is recommended. Being a winner in plo basically comes down to how you play draws, sets and aces, as well as how you play against aces.

My final comment would be to advise you to play very tight at first and analyze the mistakes of others that you observe and check the hand histories and take their hands as your own and determine the correct play on each street. It's so much more fun to let others pay the price of your learning than for you to do so yourself.

Ribbo
08-17-2005, 11:44 AM
[ QUOTE ]
[quote

[/ QUOTE ]

Last time I checked this was a message board, and comments are there for everyone to read. All my comments are made irrespective of the limit or the player, because that's the most useful responce to give. Since I see no poker content in your post, why did you make it?

[/ QUOTE ]

You very condescingly addressed one of the best online NLHE players on 2+2 like he was a total noob.

[/ QUOTE ]

No I didn't, that's you being a net nanny, are you married to him? What I made was a general comment in reply to someone having a complain about variance. My comments ring true irrespective of the player or the limit and were there for anyone to see. Omaha chews up a lot of players because they can't cope with the beats when their set of aces loses. Because it's such a common occurance compared to Hold'em, it is the hold'em converts that need to be aware the most how much it can tilt you if you're not mentally prepared.

Ribbo
08-17-2005, 11:54 AM
I love comments like being called a "well known prick" then followed by bad/obvious advice that is so ambigious it doesn't actually tell him anything.
[ QUOTE ]
Being a winner in plo basically comes down to how you play draws, sets and aces, as well as how you play against aces

[/ QUOTE ]
Duh, don't be a prick and state the obvious under the guise of being advice. What you've just explained is the game of poker.
[ QUOTE ]
My final comment would be to advise you to play very tight at first and analyze the mistakes of others that you observe and check the hand histories and take their hands as your own and determine the correct play on each street

[/ QUOTE ]
Again what you've suggested is the most basic of concepts. Why don't you offer something interesting rather than the usual dullard stuff everyone knows. Ooooh check hand histories, WHAT SAGE ADVICE, gee who would think of that. Prick.

FeliciaLee
08-17-2005, 03:16 PM
Stop it with the name calling and flaming for no reason.

Do you really want me babysitting this forum and treating you all like a bunch of kids that I have to watch all the time, deleting your posts because you can't stop whining at each other?

Grow up, you argue worse than a bunch of catfighting, hairpulling girls.

Big Dave D
08-17-2005, 03:55 PM
The PLO forum has always been argumentative and bitter.

But at least there is discussion here. Occassionaly.

For good or ill, right or wrong, Ribbo has pssed off several posters here. Amongst them two of our best, BLUFF and AcesOver8s.

And Ribbo doesnt even play PLO.

But I'm sure they can look after themselves.

gl

dd

Big Dave D
08-17-2005, 04:01 PM
Just to add to this, I would suspect that bad players in PLO are much more dangerous than in NLHE. In fact sometimes bad players on first glance turn out to be good players in PLO. CHUFTY anyone?

Also being good at other games is no prerequisite for PLO success...some NLHE players make dire PLO players...its a very different game.

gl

dd

FeliciaLee
08-17-2005, 04:08 PM
Have I lost my mind, or did I really read a HH posted by Ribbo playing PLO?

Regardless, that doesn't matter, because what is in the past is behind us, what is going on now is what matters.

For whatever reason, this game induces fighting. I have been playing lots of PLO and PLO8 lately. The PLO8 and LO8 games seem to be friendly, with lots of people playing recreationally and having a good time (yes, I know, the stakes help make it so, but my point is still valid).

In the PLO games, however, even the tiniest buy-ins, they are arguing and flaming each other like crazy. Non-stop catfighting.

It was the same when I played lots of LOH at Boulder Station back in 2002. Unbelievable fighting.

So for whatever reason, Omaha High games attract arguments. I can live with that. When things go over the line here, though, with flaming and random name calling for no particular reason, I'm going to have to resort to editing and deleting posts. Which is stupid, because we are all adults here and can behave as such, if we want.

I hope the old posters come back, and that we can start anew. We have the potential to be the best PLO forum on the net, if everyone will just post in a mature manner and put away the needless flaming.

Felicia /images/graemlins/smile.gif

Big Dave D
08-17-2005, 04:43 PM
I was going to give a long response to this but kinda lost the will to. If you don't see the effect that Ribbo can have on some people then I guess u just don't see it. The Ribbo effect has been going on for some time, pre 2+2 even. He enjoys it. Having said that, his plo8b advice is often spot on.

Also, plo from 2-4 up is often completely silent or quite chatty. Certainly more so than other games of that size.

gl

dd

webmonarch
08-17-2005, 04:55 PM
[ QUOTE ]
Do you really want me babysitting this forum and treating you all like a bunch of kids that I have to watch all the time, deleting your posts because you can't stop whining at each other?

[/ QUOTE ]

Well, you could end it all by just banning Ribbo. That's probably easier.

gergery
08-17-2005, 05:24 PM
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Do you really want me babysitting this forum and treating you all like a bunch of kids that I have to watch all the time, deleting your posts because you can't stop whining at each other?

[/ QUOTE ]

Well, you could end it all by just banning Ribbo. That's probably easier.

[/ QUOTE ]

Why on earth would you do that?? He gives very good PLO8 advice.

Are you here to play kissy face or learn how to play poker better?

Let him have his confrontational fun and consider it entertainment, who cares.

-g

08-17-2005, 08:18 PM
Please don't think of banning Ribbo. I have learned a lot from his posts and hand histories. I personally don't see why everyone gets so spun up about him. His advive is usually very good, if you just don't like the style, then ask yourself if you are here to learn and share or to get your egos stroked. Good poker players as a segment of society would seem to be well-equipped to handle abrasive characters without taking it personally. The last thing we would want is a forum stocked with polite yet uninsightful posts (although, I'll admit that politeness and insightfulness need not be mutually exclusive).

I'll go back to lurking and sponging up everyone's good points.

Ribbo
08-17-2005, 08:36 PM
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Do you really want me babysitting this forum and treating you all like a bunch of kids that I have to watch all the time, deleting your posts because you can't stop whining at each other?

[/ QUOTE ]

Well, you could end it all by just banning Ribbo. That's probably easier.

[/ QUOTE ]

Why on earth would you do that?? He gives very good PLO8 advice.

Are you here to play kissy face or learn how to play poker better?

Let him have his confrontational fun and consider it entertainment, who cares.

-g

[/ QUOTE ]

If people actually paid attention to when I am abrasive they would see it's straight after someone says something that is really terrible advice. I see this as the equivalent of stealing someone elses money, straight out of their wallet. When you say something that is clearly bad advice, you are costing people money, especially those who will listen to that advice and take it in.
As for those other two special people, they just think i'm on an offensive to spam my website ( www.ribbo.com (http://www.ribbo.com) that's www.ribbo.com (http://www.ribbo.com) for those who didn't see it first time ) to all and sundry, which is simply for showing the hand histories to people (i should point out in the year it's been going, even though i donate all profits (after the £50 a year hosting fees) to charity, nobody has ever clicked through a party poker banner)

FeliciaLee
08-17-2005, 08:51 PM
No one is getting banned. Abrasive or not abrasive, things would definitely go through an escalation process first. I'm not going around randomly picking on people just because someone else doesn't like the method in which they present their advice.

Heck, I didn't even get mad at Winter for posting a porno pic. I almost liked it, we're just not the right forum for that /images/graemlins/tongue.gif

Felicia /images/graemlins/smile.gif

08-17-2005, 09:32 PM
Thanks, Felicia.

Oh, and can you post the link to that pic?

/images/graemlins/tongue.gif

Big Dave D
08-18-2005, 06:45 AM
Ribbo,

I just think u are (mildly) offensive...I dont mind you promoting your site at all? Assuming I was one of the other two, that is...if not I will go back to STFU.

gl

dd

Big Dave D
08-18-2005, 06:56 AM
Kid,

Ribbo is a goldmine if you are new to plo8b. He writes about the game almost exclusively and nearly everything he says is correct for the levels he says.

However not just newbies come to forums. More experienced players come to share ideas around more complex situations. However a lot of people with confrontational styles do not accept being wrong, or even in doubt. In fact they don't want to have conversations like that, period. They just turn to flaming. I'm speaking generally here, not about Ribbo in particular. And then these sometimes amusing clashes draw in others who just like seeing forum blood being spilt. So in the end the more experienced players leave. Not because they are thin skinned, but because they came to talk about things not get caught in flame wars or groupthink. It happened on rgp, it happened on a UK forum called THM and it happened, mostly, here. The stuff of just a year ago on this forum was of a much higher quality. Lastly, there will always be more disagreement about how to play on PLO forums simply becuase there are so many different winning styles in that game. PLO8b is much more rote.

gl

dd

Ribbo
08-18-2005, 09:59 AM
No, you weren't