KK play along

[MrWookie47]

Villain in this hand is overly tight for 6 max play, and is aggressive with the hands he does get. He doesn't raise much preflop, either. I only have about 30 or so hands on him. I've never seen any of his whole cards since I can't see mucked cards on Absolute. He's been losing money.

Absolute 2/4 6 max, 6 handed.

I'm in MP with K/images/graemlins/heart.gif K/images/graemlins/diamond.gif. UTG raises, I 3-bet, folded to villain who caps, and I call.

OK, now for the play along part. Flop comes A/images/graemlins/club.gif 6/images/graemlins/club.gif 4/images/graemlins/heart.gif. Villain bets. Hero?

[hemstock]

Fold
I wam weak /images/graemlins/frown.gif

[Bradyams]

Against this type of player my flop line here would be to raise, and fold to a 3bet.

[GTSamIAm]

Raises folding to a 3-bet. Folding to a turn bet, unless you have reason to assume he semibluffs, which I don't think we can.

[MrWookie47]

Why are we raising?

Edit: Value? To fold QQ/JJ? To fold AK?

[GTSamIAm]

Some weak players bet and fold to a raise. You said he was folding a lot of his hands. The pot's big enough to contest. QQ, JJ, maybe KK are folding here.

[Somekid]

I don't like raising here at all. This looks like classic WA/WB. Unless he has something like KQ clubs which I doubt. If he's bluffing I don't think we should raise and give him a reason to stop. I say we take the weenie route and call down.

edit: I don't understand why we would want QQ or JJ to fold, the pot isn't that huge.

[cold_cash]

call/call/call

call/call/fold

[MrWookie47]

[ QUOTE ]
I don't like raising here at all. This looks like classic WA/WB. Unless he has something like KQ clubs which I doubt. If he's bluffing I don't think we should raise and give him a reason to stop. I say we take the weenie route and call down.

edit: I don't understand why we would want QQ or JJ to fold, the pot isn't that huge.

[/ QUOTE ]

Bingo.

[GTSamIAm]

[ QUOTE ]
Villain in this hand is overly tight for 6 max play, and is aggressive with the hands he does get.

[/ QUOTE ]

He's not betting an inferior hand on the turn when we raise the flop. He will when we call the flop. And then he only bets the river with a superior hand. We're putting in 1.5 big bets there instead of putting in 1 big bet. I want to force him to define his hand, and I want better pot odds. When you raise, there's no doubt what he has, as you say he's not tricky.

AA:3
AK:16

KK:1
QQ:6
JJ:6 (3) Not everyone caps this.

We're winning/tieing 10/29. We're getting those odds from the pot.

[MrWookie47]

OK, let's move on.

Hero calls. Villain could have AK 6 ways, QQ 6 ways, and JJ 6 ways. The losing hands all have less than 3 outs against the winning hands, so letting villain continue to bet with QQ or JJ is the way to go.

Turn is the A/images/graemlins/heart.gif

Villain checks. Hero?

Edit: Oh yeah, and AA 3 ways.

[irishpint]

with position why not let him bluff (win the most) or lose the least (not raise). i call this, call the turn, call the river. if he checks the river, i bet.

If we raise and he folds, we likely lost $ we could have won. If we get 3 bet we need to fold...right?

[Harv72b]

[ QUOTE ]
Why are we raising?

[/ QUOTE ]

If you are raising the flop, it is with the intention of seeing a cheap showdown (unless you catch your K). The flop raise would be followed by a turn check through and calling 1 on the river UI. It's even possible you get to see a showdown without putting another bet into the pot if, for example, you check through a brick turn and the third club comes on the river.

Your read suggests that he probably does have the Ace, but assigning a "read" based on only 30 hands of 6max play can be dangerous. With 5 BBs already in the pot, I wouldn't mind showing down if I could do it for only 2 more.

[cold_cash]

call/call/call

[MrWookie47]

That still seams like a plan that wins no more additional money from QQ/JJ against all but the loosest players and that is just throwing away money when we're behind. Do you actually make it to showdown if you're ahead this plan? I don't very often.

[MrWookie47]

It's hard to call if villain checked. Are you advocating checking behind?

[cold_cash]

[ QUOTE ]
It's hard to call if villain checked. Are you advocating checking behind?

[/ QUOTE ]

I'd bet if he checks, call if he bets.

[GTSamIAm]

[ QUOTE ]
Villain in this hand is overly tight for 6 max play, and is aggressive with the hands he does get.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm assuming your read is correct. And there are only 6 ways to make AK, not 16 like I said. We're ahead about half the time.

To raise on the flop, folding to a 3-bet or turn bet: About 1/2 of the time we're behind so we lose two SB. Another 1/2 we win 9.5 SB plus one or two SB so 11 SB. When he calls, we bet the turn and he almost always will fold. If he calls, we're ahead. This rarely happens, so just discount it. The EV is 11*0.5 - 2*0.5 = 4.5 SB = 2.25 BB.

We call/call/bet a check, fold to a bet: 50% of the time we fold. We lose 1.5 BB. The other half we bet and win when called, as he has to snap a bluff, and he folds the other times. How much will he call down the inferior hand, let's assume 100% because he's confused. -1.5*0.5 + 7.5*0.5 = +3 BB

We call/call/bet a check, call a bet: 50% of the time we call. We lose 2.5 BB. The other half we bet and win when called, as he has to snap a bluff. -2.5*0.5 + 7.5*0.5 = +2.5 BB

So I'm wrong, call/call/fold is likely the best play. Note, though, this play will have a higher standard deviation than raising the flop. And if this player likes to call down when he's beaten, raising the flop is superior. I just don't see too much benefit against calling down a predictable opponent; I think this play is reserved for trickier, loose, and/or aggressive players.

[Kumubou]

Fold, he has quads.

....

That was a really good card for you, as it shifts the # of combinations of hands you are ahead of behind of into your favor, with one combo of AA and eight combos of AK to 6 combos of QQ and 3 combos of JJ (weighted).

With that said, it is not enough to make a bet profitable. Getting checkraised will just make you look foolish. This may be weak, but I just check through and call a river bet.

-K

[cdxx]

[ QUOTE ]
call/call/call

call/call/fold

[/ QUOTE ]

[MrWookie47]

Morning bump, and I only count 4 combos of AK that we're behind. We're looking at 2 A's and 2 K's, significantly cutting into the possibilities.

[DrunkHamster]

I bet this, and fold to a checkraise. If he is as tight as you say, it is unlikely a CR will be a bluff, so I think we can safely chuck it. On the other hand, we are much more likely to be ahead now, and it seems as though he has acknowledged that by checking. Letting it get checked down would be horrible now.

In fact, after thinking about it a little more, depending on the opponent (if he is likely to fold QQ and JJ now to a bet of yours, and also if there is a fair chance he COULD CR a trun bet), I like checking behind to try and induce a bluff on the river. If we are behind, we lose one more bet, but if we are ahead we win a bet we would never have got just by betting out. This is read dependant though - if he will probably call down with QQ and JJ we need to bet this turn.

[DeathDonkey]

Bet fool you have the nut two pair /images/graemlins/smile.gif

-DeathDonkey

[Rev. Good Will]

check behind, inducing a bluff on the river.

Edited for grammar

[Rev. Good Will]

man, I suck at life since my default move is to raise here. I should really be doing WA/WB instead.

[gharp]

Interesting hand. The way I see it, there's two things going on on this turn. Either he has an A and he's trapping, or he's scared of the A and he's backing down.

In the case where he's scared, will he call down from the turn with QQ/JJ if we just bet? Seems unlikely since he'll probably put you on an A.

I'm thinking the best line is to check here, then bet the river if checked to and just call if he bets. I don't think it's likely that you'll get more than 1 more BB out of him if you're ahead, and this way you can dodge any aggression if he's trapping.


EDIT: Changed my answer -- I originally thought raising the river after checking the turn looked best, but if he's trapping you still won't know until he 3-bets you (ouch).

[Somekid]

Assuming he is a tight player I don't see how he could possibly call with QQ or JJ and if he does he will almost certainly check/fold the river (assuming you bet). This is why I think you check the turn. If he's trying to trap he's very unlikely to go for a river c/r since you checked behind. I think he's likely to lead the river with almost any holding after you check behind. Then you can just call.

Unfortunately the decision becomes a lot tougher if he checks the river again. I think I'd check behind because I'm a weenie. He's not going to call with something you beat. He knows you have a big hand also since you capped PF.

edit: I'm pretty sure I don't like raising the river if he bets. If he's overly tight and aggressive his standard line with QQ or JJ is probably bet/fold on the river. He's definitely going to 3-bet AK. We want to see a showdown.

[MrWookie47]

It looks like there's a pretty even split between checking behind and betting out. At the time, I bet, but I like the case for checking, too, to perhaps get another bet out of JJ that might fold to a bet here. Anyway, here's the next action:

Hero bets, villain check/raises, hero?

Is this an auto-fold, or do you look and see 8 BB in the pot and at least give it a second thought?

[gharp]

Yer ded. Fold. /images/graemlins/smile.gif


(Yeah, I would give it a second thought, but folding is still the right play here.)

[bozlax]

[ QUOTE ]
Yeah, I would give it a second thought...

[/ QUOTE ]

Taking the form of, "Oh, [censored], I am SO [censored] dead."

Fold, given your read. And next time, stick with your plan and check behind on the turn, and see a showdown for 1 bet. I think you already know why.

[deception5]

I sort of like checking behind on the turn and raising a river bet (or betting if checked to), it's very hard for the opponent to 3-bet you there as he knows you're not likely to fold since it's just one more BB.

I usually fold to the check/raise here, but a good opponent may check/raise here with a hand like JJ hoping to fold a better pair especially if he thinks you are capable of making such a laydown. I've noticed this a lot more in my ventures into 3/6 so I think it depends on how aggressive the absolute 2/4 game is and what your feel is for this particular opponent. The second ace may make him more comfortable with his pocket pair, so I would probably have to call this down, particularly since you described him as aggressive once he entered the pot.

You only need to be good 16% of the time to warrant calling down, I think you are.

Edit: FWIW, if the pot were smaller I would fold this.

[MrWookie47]

Actually, I'm risking 2 BB to try and win 9, 4.5:1. I need to be good one time in 5.5, or 18.2%. Splitting hairs in this case, I guess (our estimate will have error bars larger that 2%), but it's usually good to get the math right.

Oh, and nh gharp. /images/graemlins/smile.gif

[Somekid]

This was why I was scared to bet the turn. Even if betting the turn was marginally better, I'd smash my mouse here. It sucks, but you gotta fold. It is gonna cost you 2 big bets for an 8 big bet pot. No way he's bluffing this 25% of the time. I'd guess he c/r bluffs here maybe 0% of the time.

[deception5]

[ QUOTE ]
I originally thought raising the river after checking the turn looked best, but if he's trapping you still won't know until he 3-bets you (ouch).

[/ QUOTE ]

There's no way he's 3-betting you on the river with less than an ace.

[deception5]

[ QUOTE ]
Actually, I'm risking 2 BB to try and win 9, 4.5:1. I need to be good one time in 5.5, or 18.2%. Splitting hairs in this case, I guess (our estimate will have error bars larger that 2%), but it's usually good to get the math right.

[/ QUOTE ]

Right you are, I was counting him for another turn bet even though he already put 2 in.

[gharp]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Quote:
I originally thought raising the river after checking the turn looked best, but if he's trapping you still won't know until he 3-bets you (ouch).


[/ QUOTE ]


There's no way he's 3-betting you on the river with less than an ace.

[/ QUOTE ]
Right, but now you've paid 2BB for that information instead of the one you could've paid on the turn.

I think it comes down to how confident you are that you have a better hand here. Since you stand to risk twice as many BB to win twice as many BB, you probably just need to think you have a better than 50% chance for the check-turn/raise-river play to look good.

[Wetdog]

I see both villain and us employing WA/WB (c/c, c/c, bet) here. I call a bet, bet to a check. I don't see a c/r from villain coming unless an attempt on the turn whiffed, but then villain would have just bet out the river.

[Reqtech]

[ QUOTE ]
I've never seen any of his whole cards since I can't see mucked cards on Absolute.

[/ QUOTE ]

I would move over to UB to play my 2/4 6-max /images/graemlins/smile.gif

On the flop I would call his bet, though. He's set it up PF for you to think that he has a monster hand, so I don't think that you need to worry about clubs.

[Harv72b]

[ QUOTE ]
That still seams like a plan that wins no more additional money from QQ/JJ against all but the loosest players and that is just throwing away money when we're behind. Do you actually make it to showdown if you're ahead this plan? I don't very often.

[/ QUOTE ]

Everyone is assuming that villain will continue betting with QQ/JJ/some other random hand you beat. I find that just calling 1 bet on a flop like this tends to scare my opponents more than raising would. Especially since this is a tight, somewhat thinking opponent, I think you see an underpair check/call or check/fold the turn fairly often.

Anyway, I'm not saying that I would raise the flop against this opponent, just explaining why I would if I did. I tend to agree with a call/call/fold line on this board vs. this opponent, betting if checked to on any street.

[deception5]

[ QUOTE ]
Right, but now you've paid 2BB for that information instead of the one you could've paid on the turn.

[/ QUOTE ]

It's a question of how often you'll be bluffed off the best hand on the turn. If you think there's a > 50% chance he has a better hand then check behind on the turn and call the river bet.

[Harv72b]

[ QUOTE ]
And next time, stick with your plan and check behind on the turn, and see a showdown for 1 bet. I think you already know why.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think that's being a little results-oriented. Villain will call with QQ/JJ/even TT here when Hero is ahead, so Hero is missing bets when he's ahead by checking through. If we are folding to a check/raise (which I think is prudent), then Hero is only risking the same bet he would've used to call the river with.

If the read on villain is that he's tricky/aggressive enough to check/raise with a worse hand (as well as a better one, obviously), then I can see the wisdom in checking through and calling a river bet.

[cfjr2]

[ QUOTE ]

Villain will call with QQ/JJ/even TT here when Hero is ahead, so Hero is missing bets when he's ahead by checking through.


[/ QUOTE ]
True
[ QUOTE ]

If we are folding to a check/raise (which I think is prudent), then Hero is only risking the same bet he would've used to call the river with.


[/ QUOTE ]
In this situation this is the issue - we haven't seen a single showdown with villan and it is likely worth the loss of a bet to see a showdown here. (not to mention if he is tricky we are losing 8 bets not 1)
[ QUOTE ]

If the read on villain is that he's tricky/aggressive enough to check/raise with a worse hand (as well as a better one, obviously), then I can see the wisdom in checking through and calling a river bet.

[/ QUOTE ]
I think that in this situation this would be better than bet / fold.

[cfjr2]

Isn't it one BB now and one on the river for your 2BB? If so villan will put in another on the river to make it 10 to 2.

[Somekid]

I don't think the villian would call the turn here. If he checks the turn he has to be worried about the ace or a higher pocket pair. Villian knows we capped PF. I think he might call (unlikely) with QQ but I think he would definitely fold JJ/TT. OP said that the player was fairly tight.

Also I like the possibility of inducing a bluff.

[MrWookie47]

It's 8 BB now. Villain will put in another bet on the river giving us an opportunity to win 9 BB. We have to put in 2 BB, so I come up with 9:2.

[cfjr2]

oops sorry thought it was 6 + your turn 1bb + his raise 2bb for 9bb now.

[MrWookie47]

No worries, but just to be sure, I counted 4 BB preflop, 1 BB on the flop, 3 BB on the turn so far, and I subtracted the blinds for rake.

Also, villain capped preflop, not hero.

[MrWookie47]

Well, I called, and I think it's a mistake. 18% is pretty generous for the fraction of the time I'm ahead here. 10% would be more a reasonable, however, so the pot would have to be pretty darn giant at this point. I got caught up thinking that we were down to 4 ways for him to have AK and 9-12 adjusted ways for him to have QQ/JJ. I let this evidence skew the fact that I had overwhelming evidence that he had an A. Here's the rest of the hand.

Hero calls.

River is the K/images/graemlins/club.gif. Villain bets. What's the plan?

[Reqtech]

Wow. Talk about WA/WB! Now you need to just worry about AA and AK. With a capped pf, 3-bet flop (oops...he only bet out on the flop), and a check-raised turn with 2 A's on board, I can't find it in myself to raise this river. I doubt he has QQ, JJ, or TT with his action, so you're really going to be hoping that he has AQ, AJ, or AT right? From his action, you raising is about the same as you putting up 3 bets since he'll be sure to 3-bet you.

I call.

[gharp]

Nice river! Uh, I think...

Well I'd definitely raise here. Realistically, you're only trailing 2 combos of AK and one combo of AA. A4 and A6 seem pretty unlikely from someone who doesn't raise a lot preflop (esp. since he capped).

AA and AK are so consistent with his action so far, that I'd probably just call a 3-bet. AQ, AJ and ATs are also consistent, so let's hope we see one of those.

[deception5]

[ QUOTE ]
Well, I called, and I think it's a mistake. 18% is pretty generous for the fraction of the time I'm ahead here. 10% would be more a reasonable, however, so the pot would have to be pretty darn giant at this point. I got caught up thinking that we were down to 4 ways for him to have AK and 9-12 adjusted ways for him to have QQ/JJ. I let this evidence skew the fact that I had overwhelming evidence that he had an A. Here's the rest of the hand.

[/ QUOTE ]

You're probably right, it's just damn hard to let go of KK here, need to work on this as well /images/graemlins/smile.gif

[ QUOTE ]
River is the K. Villain bets. What's the plan?

[/ QUOTE ]

Can you teach me how to do that? /images/graemlins/smile.gif

So that leaves:

AA (1 combination)
AK (2 combinations)
AQ, AJ, etc - (many combinations)
QQ/JJ/TT - (many combinations)

I wrote up a big thing about raising, because I thought there was 1 combination of AK. Since there are 2 I'm slightly more afraid of the hands that beat you. Raising is likely to fold the hands you beat QQ/JJ/TT and get 3-bet by the hands that beat you. If you're 3-bet you are hoping he has AQ/AJ (and doesn't fear AA/AK/KK). Calling is best.

Edit: I count bad.

[Wetdog]

Hooray! I mean damn! It's a boat! But is it a yacht (KKKAA) or a destroyer (AAAKK)? Call. If he's got the destroyer, as he likely could, we're sunk. We might lose 1 bet with a call, 2 with a raise/fold or miss a bet if villain only has QQ JJ or the like.

I'll wuss out and call.

[GTSamIAm]

I still don't get what's wrong with raising the flop. It's not nearly as risky as calling down. There are so many variables involved in determining the EV of calling down that it is a high variance play. We don't know exactly how he plays when we call down. We have a far better idea of what he'll do when we raise the flop. In fact, raising the flop assures him to define his hand exactly nearly always. Why not forfeit a possible small amount of EV for assured EV and low, low variance?

[deception5]

[ QUOTE ]
I still don't get what's wrong with raising the flop. It's not nearly as risky as calling down. There are so many variables involved in determining the EV of calling down that it is a high variance play. We don't know exactly how he plays when we call down. We have a far better idea of what he'll do when we raise the flop. In fact, raising the flop assures him to define his hand exactly nearly always. Why not forfeit a possible small amount of EV for assured EV and low, low variance?

[/ QUOTE ]

variance < profit

And it's not a small amount of EV. Why let your opponents get away from their hands cheaply everytime you are ahead?

[Reqtech]

I really don't like the idea of raising and folding to a 3-bet. Whose to say that the villain wouldn't 3-bet with AQ, AJ, or AT? You're willing to put in 2 big bets into an already sizable pot, but are willing to fold for one more when you really only have 3 hands out there that have you beat (AA, AaK, AbK)?

That said, I'm still a wuss and call the river /images/graemlins/smile.gif

[bozlax]

[ QUOTE ]
I think that's being a little results-oriented. Villain will call with QQ/JJ/even TT here when Hero is ahead, so Hero is missing bets when he's ahead by checking through. If we are folding to a check/raise (which I think is prudent), then Hero is only risking the same bet he would've used to call the river with.

[/ QUOTE ]

I disagree. Hero's plan was to get to showdown cheaply. He's got second pair. No scare card can fall on the river (with the possible exception of pairing the board, I suppose). If you know that you'll fold to a 3-bet on the turn, then why take the chance of folding the best hand?

Yes, you're spending the same 1 BB. My way, you have a chance of winning the pot. Your way, you have no chance if, say, Villan accidentally hits "Raise" instead of fold when you bet the turn (I won a pot like this, today, incidentally).

[MrWookie47]

[ QUOTE ]
Hooray! I mean damn! It's a boat! But is it a yacht (KKKAA) or a destroyer (AAAKK)? Call. If he's got the destroyer, as he likely could, we're sunk. We might lose 1 bet with a call, 2 with a raise/fold or miss a bet if villain only has QQ JJ or the like.


I'll wuss out and call.

[/ QUOTE ]


Or the battleship (AAAAK)?

[Wetdog]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Hooray! I mean damn! It's a boat! But is it a yacht (KKKAA) or a destroyer (AAAKK)? Call. If he's got the destroyer, as he likely could, we're sunk. We might lose 1 bet with a call, 2 with a raise/fold or miss a bet if villain only has QQ JJ or the like.


I'll wuss out and call.

[/ QUOTE ]


Or the battleship (AAAAK)?

[/ QUOTE ]

Then it's bend over, put your head between your legs, ...

[MrWookie47]

When that K hit, I was thinking one thing, and one thing only:

(cue Euro soccer anoucer voice)

BOOOOOOOOOAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAT!

*breath*

BOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAT !

I raised, and that was easily my biggest mistake of this hand. It was pretty close to a 1 full BB mistake. It didn't even register as a mistake when I made it. I didn't realize how terrible this raise was until I was reviewing this hand after the fact. Here's why. Even if he still might have QQ or JJ after the check/raise and still continuing to bet this river, there's no way a tight player would call a river raise here with those hands. So, what other hands could he have? What does a tight player raise and cap UTG? AA. Can't have KK anymore. AK. AQ? Highly unlikely. AJ/AT? Absolutely not. I checked this guy's stats post mortem. He was 19/8. That's not all that aggressive preflop by 6 max standards, and no way is that capping AT aggressive. That leaves approximately zero hands that will call my raise, and the most probable hands are the nuts and will 3bet me.

What happened? Well, I raised, he called, I showed my boat, and he mucked. He let out a "lol," and I asked him what I sucked out on. He answered AQ. Now, you can't always believe what people answer like this, but he sure played like it, and QQ is really unlikely. This outcome was far, far luckier than catching the K on the river, and I'm glad to see a lot of people saying to call rather than raise here.

The easiest leaks to find are in the hands you lost. Those are the ones your brain naturally tells you to review so that you could lose less (or win) next time. Everyday this forum gets at least one post where someone is looking for advice on a hand just like this. The next easiest leaks to find are in the hands you won, but where you didn't win enough. It's harder to find leaks where you did something that is actually incorrect where you were unsure, but you then lucked out. By far the hardest leaks to find are the leaks like this. The leaks where you do something terrible, but it's something that, at the time, looks automatic and obviously correct, and then on top of that, you're rewarded for your bad behavior.

Always be on your toes, guys, and thanks.

[gharp]

[ QUOTE ]
I didn't realize how terrible this raise was until I was reviewing this hand after the fact. <...> So, what other hands could he have? What does a tight player raise and cap UTG? AA. Can't have KK anymore. AK. AQ? Highly unlikely. AJ/AT? Absolutely not. I checked this guy's stats post mortem. He was 19/8. That's not all that aggressive preflop by 6 max standards, and no way is that capping AT aggressive.

[/ QUOTE ]
This is being pretty hard on yourself and all the rest of us raise-the-river guys. I don't think you're ever going to know after 30 hands that his capping range is as narrow as AA, KK, QQ, JJ and AK. Especially at 6-max. I would put AQ and potentially AJ (and maybe ATs) firmly in the realm of possibility and that adds a lot of card combinations that you're now crushing. Even if you just add AQ, it's more likely he has that (5 combos) than AA+AK (3 combos).

Basically I'm saying that, given the range of hands you could've thought he had at the time you had to make the decision, raising doesn't look so bad.

[MrWookie47]

Maybe I was a little hard, but I think your range of hands is far too loose. I think this is the first time (certainly in recent memory) that I've had a non-maniac raise and cap AQ preflop. This guy was tigher than normal, and had more conservative than normal raising standards. Sure, it was a small sample, but in poker, you have to go on what you have at the time (although weighted appropriately). Capping preflop overwhelmingly means AK at the expense of AQ, AJ, and AT, especially amongst tight players. I think giving them one full hands worth (combined) compared to the two hands possible for AK is generous for the likelihood here. Has anyone actually seen people with VPIP<=20 and PFR<=10 raise and cap AQ, AJ, or AT preflop?

If I knew that this was his range of hands, betting (and especially calling) the turn would be pretty terrible here. I guess you can weigh that as you want.