$109s - A Good Stop and Go?

[Unarmed]

Vill has been either min raising or calling. First time he has made a large raise.

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t600 (3 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Button (t3060)
Hero (t4345)
BB (t2595)

Preflop: Hero is SB with 9/images/graemlins/club.gif, 9/images/graemlins/spade.gif.
<font color="#CC3333">Button raises to t1800</font>, Hero calls t1500, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>.

[bones]

What hands has he shown down with his min-raise and calls?

[fisherman112]

seems like an ideal hand and chip situation.

[Unarmed]

[ QUOTE ]
What hands has he shown down with his min-raise and calls?

[/ QUOTE ]

Min raises have been taking it down. He called 4 straight times on my BB and got pushed on every time.

[ChuckNorris]

[ QUOTE ]

Vill has been either min raising or calling. First time he has made a large raise.

[/ QUOTE ]

Now isn't that curious? It's easy to guess what people have when they raise large every time and suddenly miniraise. But the other way around? I am confused, and I will just disregard this.

As for the Stop'n'Go, it looks like a bad idea at first glance, since you aren't closing the action. Then again, the t1800 raise is practically all-in for BB, so I don't think you pushing preflop would really lower the chances of BB joining the pot. I think like it.

[bones]

[ QUOTE ]
Min raises have been taking it down. He called 4 straight times on my BB and got pushed on every time.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think that it's a great spot for a stop n go. But I'm not sure how much FE you have post-flop if you've been pounding on the guy.

[fisherman112]

you dont really need that much FE at all since you probably have the best hand anyway.
also these plays are made more so that opponents make mathematical errors in calling when you push if they miss on the flop, not so you can blow him off jacks if it comes AKx. not that i think he would fold in that situation anyway.

[Bonafone]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
What hands has he shown down with his min-raise and calls?

[/ QUOTE ]

Min raises have been taking it down. He called 4 straight times on my BB and got pushed on every time.

[/ QUOTE ]

After reading this I feel I think I would just rather put all the chips in there preflop. I think he would be more willing to call with his premium holdings trying to induce a push, which would be most pairs above your nines and ak-aq.

This larger raise, at least in my experience, tends to be smaller pairs trying to take the hand down without a showdown. I don't know why he wouldn't just push, but he seems like he doesn't play very logically if he limp/folded 4 straight times on your bb. But I still would expect to see an underpair a high percentage of the time and weak aces and weak kings the other times.

Because of this I think I would rather just get all the chips in the middle hoping he has the underpair and expecting to be a large favorite most the time.

[freemoney]

stop playing the 109s.

[ChuckNorris]

[ QUOTE ]
also these plays are made more so that opponents make mathematical errors in calling when you push if they miss on the flop

[/ QUOTE ]

Oh dear.. Where did you get that idea from /images/graemlins/blush.gif

[yabastid]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
What hands has he shown down with his min-raise and calls?

[/ QUOTE ]

Min raises have been taking it down. He called 4 straight times on my BB and got pushed on every time.

[/ QUOTE ]

In this case I really like a stop and go.

[microbet]

I would push preflop.

It's pretty unlikely that you will make him fold if he's beating you after the flop.

[pokerlaw]

well, either way all your chips are going in the middle here.

Pre-flop I don't see you having much/any FE, so sure, a stop and go seems like a good idea.

[freemoney]

thats not the point.

[kyro]

bleh. Why not push? I'm honestly curious?

[pokerlaw]

quick question regarding the stop and go here: if a 9 hits, you dont still push, or do you?

[Unarmed]

[ QUOTE ]
quick question regarding the stop and go here: if a 9 hits, you dont still push, or do you?

[/ QUOTE ]

Hell no.

[pokerlaw]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
quick question regarding the stop and go here: if a 9 hits, you dont still push, or do you?

[/ QUOTE ]

Hell no.

[/ QUOTE ]

hehe, just making sure...

[microbet]

Well, it's a reason to not do a stop-n-go.

In practice, I wouldn't have thought of a stop-n-go as an option.

To the OP, and to the guy that mentioned stop-n-gos as a way to trap people who missed, I just think of stop-n-gos when I'm between a rock and a hard place with a crappy hand.

[Ryendal]

Well, since it's a trash game, with the guy always fighting with you, I like the stop-and-go here. He won't fold preflop AK AQ AJ .. KQ may be.
The idea is to take control of theses hands with a flop break.
The stop-and-go is more solid for me than a preflop push.

[Back In Black]

[ QUOTE ]
Well, it's a reason to not do a stop-n-go.

In practice, I wouldn't have thought of a stop-n-go as an option.

To the OP, and to the guy that mentioned stop-n-gos as a way to trap people who missed, I just think of stop-n-gos when I'm between a rock and a hard place with a crappy hand.

[/ QUOTE ]

I completely agree with this. I don't think I like a stop and go here because I like my hand preflop. So you just grit your teeth and throw them all in when the flop comes AJT? What better hands are you trying to get someone to dump on the flop?

[ChuckNorris]

[ QUOTE ]
I completely agree with this. I don't think I like a stop and go here because I like my hand preflop.

[/ QUOTE ]

You can't be so much ahead of villains range preflop that you wouldn't prefer them to fold the flop and let you win the pot without a showdown. I won't even bother to do the calculations.

Maybe all of you who don't like the stop'n'go here should check out this (http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showflat.php?Cat=&amp;Number=3154021&amp;page=0&amp;view=colla psed&amp;sb=5&amp;o=14&amp;fpart=1) thread. If you don't think stop'n'go is good here, I think you're disagreeing with some parts of my post that I linked to, and I would really like to know which parts and why.

[WillMagic]

Those of you who advocate pushing all-in preflop...you need to answer the following question.

How could it possibly be better than a stop-n-go?

Will

[curtains]

Those of you that are reading this thread, you need to ask yourselves: Does it really matter enough in this situation to spend so much time and energy thinking about it?

The difference between the two plays is minute, even if one is better.


btw - I was trying to mock my good buddy WillMagic by copying his post, but didnt really work so well.

[tigerite]

Stop and go seems fine, but you are missing out on getting the rest of his chips when he has a lower pair than 99, which will be sometimes, or Ax with x lower than 9, which will also be sometimes. Though he may well call on the flop anyway with these hands, admittedly.

Perfect spot IMHO. Damn, you're way better at this than IM. But, in my games, people loosen up at the bubble /images/graemlins/smile.gif, so I've got a while to go.

[jgunnip]

I don't really see the difference between pushing preflop and attempting a stop and go other than if the BB pushes, then I guess you'd be able to drop the hand. But assuming the BB folds, you're getting all your chips in the middlea t some point in this hand. I really can't see villian folding with these blinds, since any chance of you bluffing on the flop would probably jusify a call on his part.

Villian's previous play shows that he really doesn't have any remote concept of what he's doing. Villian is not a tricky thinking player becuase those types of players don't complere/fold their SBs four times. I actually think villians range is a little tighter that what most people seem to believe. I don't think he's making this play with a weak holding. With his passive-weak tendencies maybe a range like 88+ AT+ is appropriate. His play just doesn't really make much sense to me. What range did you put him on unarmed?

[freemoney]

in about 5 seconds it becomes painfully clear that even if BB pushed flipped over KK and button calls and flips over AA you should call, so the whole fold if BB comes over sounds real dumb n i stopped reading after that

[schwza]

villain has 1200 left with 4200 in the middle.

i think that stop n go is bad. do you think he's ever going to fold two unpaired cards over 9? if so he's horrible, i guess you could try. but i think you're going to fold out missed unders to your 99 and 3-outers too often. i'd rather just get the money in.

[schwza]

because most of villain's folds on the flop will be correct. just b/c it maximizes the odds of winning the hand doesn't make it the right play.

[schwza]

[ QUOTE ]
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I completely agree with this. I don't think I like a stop and go here because I like my hand preflop.

[/ QUOTE ]

You can't be so much ahead of villains range preflop that you wouldn't prefer them to fold the flop and let you win the pot without a showdown. I won't even bother to do the calculations.

Maybe all of you who don't like the stop'n'go here should check out this (http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showflat.php?Cat=&amp;Number=3154021&amp;page=0&amp;view=colla psed&amp;sb=5&amp;o=14&amp;fpart=1) thread. If you don't think stop'n'go is good here, I think you're disagreeing with some parts of my post that I linked to, and I would really like to know which parts and why.

[/ QUOTE ]

yes, please post in that thread. chuck made a post that a lot of people loved that i think is completely wrong, and i don't want to wait till it's a reasonable time in finland to get some resolution.

[fnord_too]

I don't think you gain much by S&amp;Ging here. I don't see him folding a whole lot with 2BB left and the pot being 9BB. Occasionally, BB will wake up with a hand and push where he would have folded to your push, so I think that kills any slight increase in FE you get by waiting for the flop.

[Back In Black]

The only time I see this play "working" is when you have villain killed on the flop anyway. i.e., flop: KQ6 and villain holds A8, or AJ with a flop of 347, or villain holding 55 with flop of 7JK. I just don't see any situation where you possibly get villain to fold a hand you aren't crushing postflop, where if you push preflop, he has no chance to lay down any of these hands.

[jgunnip]

[ QUOTE ]
in about 5 seconds it becomes painfully clear that even if BB pushed flipped over KK and button calls and flips over AA you should call, so the whole fold if BB comes over sounds real dumb n i stopped reading after that

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm not saying I would fold, just that it seems folding to a BB push would be the only reason to try and stop and go. I don't agree with it and would just push and not worry about it so the situation would never come up. However, suppose it did play out like you said, I would fold my nines 100% of the time and leave my self with t2845 HU. Calling does not make any sense. The chances that you win the hand and thus the tournament as well as the chances that you get knocked out in third are so small I'm not going to worry about them. But the majority of the time calling guarantees you 2nd. So why not increase your chance of finishing first by playing with t2845 instead of ending it right there?

[inyaface]

I think the whole point is that a S&amp;G creates a situation where the villan might fold. If you repush preflop theres no way(or almost no way) he's folding. Playing a stop and go you get more folding equity. Even though the difference in folding equity is tiny and the villan will probably still call with no pair no draw on the flop they might not. Even the chance thats the villan misclicks after the flop should make a stop and go the right play (ok i dont know why he might misclick after the flop and not before...and its stretching it a bit but you get the idea)

Basically IMO you maximize EV by playing a S&amp;G

[microbet]

Sort of a bump since I want to see or do some more analysis on this one (call it curiousity, I know it is marginal, Curtains) but don't have time.

Post flop if he misses with two cards over 9, you will be around 75% to win, if he misses with one over and one under you will be around 85% to win, and if he has a lower PP you will be around 90% to win. (not counting overs being an overpair or something like an OESFD where he would call the stop-n-go almost guaranteed)

Also, I wouldn't say there is 0 chance that he will fold to a preflop push.

I'll also try and take a better look at Chuck's stop-n-go post. Very busy lately.

[Myst]

Why would you want folding equity? You probably have the best hand anyway.

[freemoney]

make your hand 88 and give villain jt, flop comes k92, i dont think its all that impossible to believe villian will fold very incorrectly on this flop for 1200 and i know its a bad play so dont tell me that, most people are bad players its the reason why you win.

[Unarmed]

[ QUOTE ]
Why would you want folding equity? You probably have the best hand anyway.

[/ QUOTE ]

Ok here's a question to the forum:

Say I *know* he has AK and is capable of folding on an all unders flop. I am trying to decide whether I should push or SNG. Is the solution to this situation simple or complex?

[inyaface]

Just something to think about

Villan folds on flop
1260 Button
6145 Hero
2595 BB


Villan calls and looses
7405 Button
2595 BB

Villan calls and wins
6120 Button
1285 Hero
2295 BB

With AK I think you need to play the stop and go here even more so then against 2 random cards because you know he has 2 overs and at least 6 outs so you want him to have two less cards to pair his overs

[fnord_too]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Why would you want folding equity? You probably have the best hand anyway.

[/ QUOTE ]

Ok here's a question to the forum:

Say I *know* he has AK and is capable of folding on an all unders flop. I am trying to decide whether I should push or SNG. Is the solution to this situation simple or complex?

[/ QUOTE ]

That solution to this modified scenario is simple (if we ignore the BB, we'll still count his dead money though).


Cashing EV of pushing pre-flop:
~$448.1 * .546 + $263.3 * .454 = ~$364.2

Stop and go:
He can flop 0, 1, 2, or 3 Aces or Kings. This is (mildly) important since it affects your redraw prospects.
He flops zero (42*41*40)/(48*47*46) = 66.4%. Here your equity is ~$414.7.
That accounts for $275.4 in Equity
Assuming you always S&amp;G, that means you need to have the other 33.6% contribute $88.8 in equity. If you lose, you have $263.3 in equity, so if you NEVER win when he hits a flop in any way, you lose $0.40 by S&amp;G'ing. Of course you will set up some, and he won't redraw. I feel confident that that makes up that $0.40 and then some.

So, the answer to your question if you ignore the BB is yes, S&amp;Ging is better. It is better still if you check the times you hit your set with no A or K and give him a chance to improve enough to commit his last chips.

[tigerite]

One thing that nobody has mentioned here, I'm amazed there are still people donkish enough at the $109's to raise for 3xbb when their stack is 5xbb, in this situation /images/graemlins/confused.gif

[PrayingMantis]

[ QUOTE ]
Ok here's a question to the forum:

Say I *know* he has AK and is capable of folding on an all unders flop. I am trying to decide whether I should push or SNG. Is the solution to this situation simple or complex?

[/ QUOTE ]

There is of course a mathematic approach to solve this, but ganerally when you have a hand like 99 and you KNOW villain is on over cards, a stop and go is better from the simple reason that AK "needs" the whole 5-cards more than 99 "needs" them. And against some opponents with AK/AQ and such you'll have more FE after the flop if they don't hit than otherwise.

However, this is much more relevant to sitations where stacks are at least somewhat deeper and there's more possible post-flop play. Here button open raised for more than 1/2 his stack - so he's not going anywhere in any case.

[Unarmed]

Ok, good. My exact thoughts were, sh*t he just raised off half his stack, he has a monster and my 9s are toast. Still, I'm not laying these down ITM, so lets just SNG here and hope his definition of monster includes AK. Anyway, the flop came T high and he folded to my push.

[PrayingMantis]

[ QUOTE ]
Anyway, the flop came T high and he folded to my push.

[/ QUOTE ]

Clearly you're talking about a real genius, so I wouldn't be very surprised if he also folds whatever hand he has if you push PF. In other words, this doesn't really show whether S&amp;G was actually superior here or not. Nice job anyway... /images/graemlins/grin.gif

[curtains]

But okay, basically in these situations it's almost never BAD to do a stop+go. The amount you are gaining is usually quite miniscule, as if your opponent had something like K9 or K8 here, it's actually unclear chip EV wise whether you want them to fold.