Off topic help, please

[vexvelour]

I originally posted this in probability and was told wrong forum. Since I regular this psych forum and enjoy reading what the posters here say, I would like to know what you guys think. I'm really looking for "you're on the right track" or "you're way the hell off"...and any explanations you feel necessary.
Thank you and sorry for the off-topicness. Please don't kill me. /images/graemlins/smile.gif

Hi. I have had problems with probablity (figuring it out, namely) since I began playing poker. I picked up a book last night that finally spelled it out in words that clicked. I think I am getting a good feel for it. I would like to make sure that I understand it correctly. Thanks for the time, I very much appreciate it.

First you figure out how many outs you have, minus outs that may give your opponent a better hand (number of cards in deck/number of outs). Then, you compare the size of the pot with the bet to you (pot odds).

The author then loses me. He says to figure out implied pot odds (ie: limit poker) and considering how many bets you think there will be in future rounds. I play NL and don't see how this could be a possibility. Should I skip this?

He then says to compare the implied pot odds to the odds against improving.

With this statement, it seems I would have to figure out those implied pot odds. Furthermore, he doesn't say how you should compare the two. Would you want them to be fairly close odds? I figured that if the pot odds were better than the odds against improving that it would be a good bet.

Thank you very much for reading and responding.

[SNOWBALL138]

Here's a quick example.

9 handed game.
Hero is BB with JhTs

UTG raises
everyone folds around to the button, who calls 2 cold.
SB calls
You call

Flop comes Qs Ac 2h (8 small bets) giving you a gutshot draw to the nuts

SB checks, you check, UTG bets, button folds, SB folds. (9 small bets) the odds against you improving are 10.75-1, and you are getting 9-1 on your call. However, if you do improve, you are likely to win at least one BB on the turn, and river. This brings your total odds to at least 11-1 (9 sb + at least one BB on the turn and river)

Therefore, according to your estimated implied odds, you can call.

[vexvelour]

What if I'm in front of a loose player during a hand? Should I consider his all-in in my implied odds? I've had this happen several times during my "learning" and unsure what to do.

[octop]

In NL do not skip that
Implied odds are much more imortant in NL than limit
The reason you play 33 to a modest raise in NL is so you can bust someone with a bog pair
If you are up against a donkey who will not lay down TPTK and he bets 10 into a 30 dollar pot on the flop and you both have 200 behind you call because you can bust him if you hit.
Implied odds depennd a lot on the player. Against a good player who can make tough laydowns they are a lot worse than against an absolute donkey.

Are you having trouble with the actual math?

[maybedinero]

Implied odds are very important in No Limit. As octop says, it's as much about your read of the player as it is about math.

Best example is where you play a low pocket pair preflop. If you have notes (or, even better, PT data) on a player that says they'll call an all-in bet on a raggy looking flop with an overpair, it's reasonable to call even a fairly big preflop raise for the implied odds that it gives you should you make a set.

You know you'll make a set about one in nine times, and I'd round up to one in ten to account for the (rare but painful) times both of you make a set and you lose your chips. Therefore, you can call a preflop raise that is a tenth of your opponent's stack size, knowing you figure to win the remainder of their stack if you make your set. This doesn't work so well if you yourself are short stacked, of course.

[vexvelour]

Octop-

Thanks for your post. My confusion mostly stemmed from reading a limit book and being a NL player. (lol). Thank you for explaining that implied odds are just as important in NL.

[ QUOTE ]
Are you having trouble with the actual math?

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't think so. Does my OP (minus the implied odds situation) seem correct? As someone just beginning to learn this aspect of the game it seems extremely overwhelming and as I try to apply it to my game, I find it screwing with my whole system.

[ QUOTE ]
Implied odds depennd a lot on the player. Against a good player who can make tough laydowns they are a lot worse than against an absolute donkey.


[/ QUOTE ]

What do you do in this situation when you're playing online? I find gaining tells (besides their betting) can be mighty difficult- esp. when you've got a donk betting out utg with low pair on the board. I hardly ever have this problem in live games, but online it happens frequently.

[vexvelour]

dinero-

Thanks for the response. Reading through these forums has really made me learn the importance of PT. I have a question - does it keep track of information on everyone you play against? So if you encounter them again it has info on them?

I too am struggling with some of the odds issues. To me, there are several layers of odds, some more complex than others.

At the simple end, you have some straightfoward situations - where you have the pot odds and the one card draw odds - I have become fairly proficient at handling these situations - such as where I have a flush draw and figure that if I hit it, I will win. To me, these are the most basic odds problems in poker and they are simple enough to calculate that you have no excuse for not doing so - and within a short period of time, you will find that you don't even need to calculate them because they will be second nature.

The next level is a similar situation, but where you also have to factor in implied odds - this is also, IMHO, not that complex.

What separates these from the more complex problems is that you are dealing with a situation where you strongly believe that you will win if you hit your hand.

Where I am now is in working through the situations where I am combining the odds with my reading skills - and in particular, in figuring out the odds of my opponent having certain hands or in factoring in the different odds of him having or hitting hands that will beat me and determining when is the right time to do what - so for example, trying to figure if I have trips, what are the odds of my opponent having a straight and then compariong those odds to the pot odds to determine whether it is correct to call a bet.

The key in these situations, IMHO, is to focus more on the betting patterns of your opponent and how he bet in the hand - and this is where it can get confusing. I think that too many average players simply look at their draw odds and go from there and don't consider the other side of the equation.

This is, I believe, the essense of playing long-term winning poker - it is the place where the art of reading comes together with the cath of calculating the various odds - and it is the ability to do this successfully that separates the great players from the average players.

[ QUOTE ]
If you are up against a donkey who will not lay down TPTK and he bets 10 into a 30 dollar pot on the flop and you both have 200 behind you call because you can bust him if you hit.


[/ QUOTE ]

Here's the math:
There is $40 in the pot now + $200 left in the bettor's stack. There is $240 for you to win, and hitting your set is 22:1 if you only factor in seeing the next card. Therefore you have 24:1 implied odds and you have a call here. Something else you may want to consider is whether or not you will see both cards. If you are on the flop and know you will see the river, the odds of you hitting your set are actually 10.88:1 meaning you have a huge call here.

I always keep a little cheat sheet with me that gives the odds against hitting any number of outs. PM me and I'll send it to you.

When drawing to hands, the most important thing to consider is the quality of your outs. If you are drawing to an open-ended straight and there are two suited cards on a paired flop, you need to worry about a flush or full house getting there by the river.

eg.
vexvelour: J /images/graemlins/spade.gifT /images/graemlins/spade.gif
Board: 9 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif9 /images/graemlins/heart.gifQ /images/graemlins/diamond.gif
At first glance, you have 8 outs. But then subtract the 8 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif and K /images/graemlins/diamond.gif and you only have 6. Furthermore, you have "tainted" outs if up against 98 or K8. Any even if you hit one of your safe outs, an opponent holding a danger hand will often stay in until the river and draw to beat you.

I find the key thing about implied odds is to think about what your opponents can be holding that kills your outs. In terms of the process outlined in the book, it sounds correct.

1. Figure out the odds you will hit any clean out.
2. Calculate the pot odds. (current size of pot / size of bet you have to call)
3. If you have a clear call, then call or raise accordingly.
4. If you do not have a clear call, consider your implied odds. (read: "How much more money can I expect to win if I hit?") Consider that sometimes a card that completes your hand makes it obvious that you hit (ie a flush) and you may not win as much as you had hoped. (how much total money can you expect to win / size of bet you have to call)

The key is figuring out which outs of yours are live. You may also consider "bluff outs", which mean that your opponent might fold if a scare card comes and you make a move to pick up the pot.

[vexvelour]

Hank and TKO-

Thank you so much for such detailed responses. TKO, I appreciate you taking the time out to spell it out in retard talk, it helps a lot. Your second post is extremely helpful to me.

[ QUOTE ]
The key is figuring out which outs of yours are live. You may also consider "bluff outs", which mean that your opponent might fold if a scare card comes and you make a move to pick up the pot.

[/ QUOTE ]

Would this factor into my math? As of now in my poker learning, I'd probably just read his betting to see if a bluff would work on a scare card. Thanks again for such great responses.

In terms of factoring bluff outs into your math, consider your chances of success.

eg.
vexvelour: 8 /images/graemlins/heart.gif7 /images/graemlins/heart.gif
Flop: 9 /images/graemlins/club.gif6 /images/graemlins/club.gifK /images/graemlins/spade.gif (3 players)
You have 6 clean outs to your straight. However, if you are 100% sure you will win the pot if the flush comes and you bluff it, then you have an additional 9 outs. If you are at least 50% sure of your bluff, then you can count 4.5 bluff outs to the flush. You now have 10.5 outs, which is about 3.5:1 (instead of the 7:1 from your 6 outs alone). However, with bluff outs, you cannot rely on implied odds to turn a fold into a call, as you are looking specifically NOT to gain any more bets.

Of course, there may be times where bluffing is not part of your plan, in which case it would make no sense to calculate your bluff outs.