Did I overplay 66?

[ChuckyB]

Five remaining in single-table home game. 100K chips in play. Only the winner gets paid.

HERO(UTG) (14,000).
MP (9,000) -- almost a good player, not great starting selection
B has (9,000) -- loose, passive, not really good
SB has (38,000) -- getting better, having a great night
BB has (30,000) -- first time at the table. Loose, aggressive but has questionably low starting requirements.

Blinds are 300/500...will go to 500/1000 in about 15 minutes.

HERO raises to 1700 UTG with 6 /images/graemlins/spade.gif6 /images/graemlins/club.gif.
three folds
BB re-raises to 5500.

I went into the tank, and decided there was a 90 per cent chance he didn't have a pocket pair. Figured I could push over the top, putting another 6800 (into a 7200 pot) and there'd be, maybe, a 15 per cent chance he'd fold. He seemed like he could get out of line with the raises, and might be trying to make a move.

I pushed it all in.

Too far, too soon?

[quarkncover]

You've almost answered your question for yourself here. Villain is getting 2-1 on his money and you've determined that he's only folding about 1/7 times. He may indeed be getting out of line and making a move, but your opponent has the chips to call. You are taking a marginal +EV situation with a coin-flip, if you feel that winning this coinflip and becoming chip leader will increase your chances of winning the tournament significantly by all means go for it. Since it seems you have defined yourself as the better player, and have not invested a large portion of your stack I fold here and wait for a much better spot.

[ChuckyB]

Yeah, I thought a lot about what two cards he had. I didn't think at all about the pot odds I'd be offering him. He gets 2:1 on a coinflip (for the two overs I put him on), and the way I went into the tank, he probably knew I didn't have a monster pair.

When I reflected this morning, folding and having about 11K (22x BB) would've been an alright situation. At the time I just felt I needed to get some more chips. Having two big stacks (and me not being one of them) was gnawing at me.

When do big stacks start troubling you in a situation like this?

[quarkncover]

I'd step back a second and look at the overall picture when considering the big stacks. You still have more than 10% of the chips in play, and the largest stack is no more than 3.5x your stack. One double up and you are in strong contention to win the tourney.

I really only fear the big stack when the blinds are getting all so important in relation to stack size. I think this might be an inflection point as defined by Harrington, so considering the blinds raising soon to 500/1000, I think you need to evaluate your players. If your raises are being respected, ie Steal raises and continuation bets, I think you're still in good contention to win this. But if this is a game where they're calling with any two and reraising with junk; with blinds so high you find yourself in some uncomfortable situations. I think this is a great opportunity to re-evaluate how you evaluated your skill level in comparison to your competition. All-in all I think this might have been an ok spot to gamble. Particularly if you are uncomfortable with the big stacks. GL and best wishes.