Standard Fold?

[deception5]

Stars 2/4 6-max. Villian is a TAG.

I am dealt Q /images/graemlins/club.gifQ /images/graemlins/spade.gif in MP.

Preflop:
Villian (UTG)raises, I 3-bet, LP fish calls, Villian calls.

Flop is 7 /images/graemlins/club.gif4 /images/graemlins/heart.gif2 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif.
Villian checks, hero bets, fish calls, villian calls.

Turn is J /images/graemlins/spade.gif.
Check/bet/call/call.

River is J /images/graemlins/diamond.gif. Villian checks, hero bets, fish calls, villian raises...

Fold?

[DrunkHamster]

Yeah, long as that read is pretty safe. I can count on one hand how many times I actually win after a river CR... It does happen, but only against pretty unpredictable players.

[MrWookie47]

I call it. It's an obvious bluff card, and villain didn't show any enthusiasm at the first J. If he had AJ, why didn't he wake up on the turn (or fold on the flop, for that matter). I'd expect to lose, but I think you'll snap off a bluff here often enough.

Edit: Hmmm, but the fish is still in the hand... Dang. Maybe it is a fold. HU I definitely call, though.

[@bsolute_luck]

i have an aversion to my fold button on the river in 6-max (well full table too, but that's another story /images/graemlins/grin.gif).

you better be sure about your read, but a TAG straight forward player, i see no problems.

edit: about the fish: i don't think he has a Jack. he's just doing what fish do: call.

[imported_The Vibesman]

If he has the Jack, why wouldn't he raise the turn? Or the flop w/ KK or AA? (not to mention cap preflop w/ either of those two.)

Are you putting him on QJ or KJ, thinking maybe he thought he was outkicked on the turn? Or against a higher pair?

Could he have had pocket tens, and decided on the river his hand was probably good?

I don't know if I could fold this here, although it does seem we're behind a lot of the time. 14-1 at the river.

[deception5]

[ QUOTE ]
about the fish: i don't think he has a Jack. he's just doing what fish do: call.

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree.

[deception5]

[ QUOTE ]
HU I definitely call, though.

[/ QUOTE ]

Agreed.

[MrWookie47]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
about the fish: i don't think he has a Jack. he's just doing what fish do: call.

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I agree.

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I'm not worried about what the fish has. We're almost certainly beating him. However, the chance that villain is bluffing with OC's or something is a lot smaller. 88-TT is still reasonable, though.

[deception5]

[ QUOTE ]
88-TT is still reasonable, though.

[/ QUOTE ]

Possible if he thinks I'd bet overcards into both of them on the river or fold a pocket pair to a raise (which he knows the fish will call).

[car ramrod]

I think I call here. I expect to see 88, 99, TT more than AJ, KJ, QJ.

[Kumubou]

Grit your teeth and call. Expect to lose, just not more than 90% of the time, which is enough for this to be profitable.

The donk in the pot is a nice little overlay (on top of the large pot), as he will probably just call with who knows what.

It will be interesting to see how the advice from HUSH differs (http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showflat.php?Cat=&Number=3150428&page=0&view=colla psed&sb=5&o=14&fpart=1) (Ooh burned! /images/graemlins/tongue.gif )

-K

No. I'm calling and crying in this big pot.

I think he likely has 2 pair higher than yours (AA-KK), or quad Jacks, or a set of Jacks (AJ or even KJ). On the off chance he has the same hand as you or TT, I'm calling. I have to win here only 1 in 14 (assuming fish calls), or 7.2% of the time, for this call to be correct.

[Shillx]

UTG has A /images/graemlins/club.gif J /images/graemlins/club.gif. Tough break but he played it fine. Calling this check/raise is as close to a 1 BB mistake as you can get.

Brad

If you were playing against a really good player who knew you inside and out (and vice versa), then you could make a case for calling, but probably not here against this guy.

[deception5]

[ QUOTE ]
It will be interesting to see how the advice from HUSH differs (Ooh burned!)

[/ QUOTE ]

Indeed. Is that a bad thing that I hadn't put the link in yet because I didn't want the advice tainted by people reading those responses first?

[deception5]

[ QUOTE ]
UTG has A /images/graemlins/club.gif J /images/graemlins/club.gif. Tough break but he played it fine. Calling this check/raise is as close to a 1 BB mistake as you can get.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yup I thought he played it perfectly as well. That and KJs were the only hands I could put him on after the check/raise (although I'm not sure it was suited, I will have to double check).

[Kumubou]

[ QUOTE ]
UTG has A /images/graemlins/club.gif J /images/graemlins/club.gif. Tough break but he played it fine. Calling this check/raise is as close to a 1 BB mistake as you can get.

[/ QUOTE ]
I do not believe this at all. Couple of problems:

1) If the player is a TAG, you would think that he would be able to make a move on occasion. The J pairing is perfect, as it now makes it both look like you just hit trip Js chasing overs and you also just went ahead of someone's flopped two-pair if you are doing this with a decent PP.

2) Watch your table image after folding in pots like this. I know after I fold to turn/river raises with thin holdings a couple of times people take notice and start taking shots at me with absolute air -- and it will come from anybody, from LAGs thinking they can just run you over to donks who think you are now distributing free money to anyone who checkraises the turn or river.

Since he had the J, I honestly believe that he would not c/r that river unless he spiked that J. It takes some stones to fire away on all three streets with just overs into a crowd like that; if I honestly thought he was on overs I would want to raise the turn right then and there (unless he is brazen enough to keep banging away with A-high).

Could this be a mistake? It may very well be. A black hole call? I severely doubt it.

-K

[Shillx]

There are a few problems here....

1) It is unlikely that he has a pocket pair when he plays the flop this way. If he had something like two tens, we probably would have heard from him on the flop.

2) He isn't going to check/raise the river in a protected pot with overcards since the bad player is calling all the way and almost surely has a pair here. Even if he knocks out our QQ, his AQ is going to lose so it it pointless to make this play. He will be check/folding this hand somewhere along the way.

The J pairing is perfect, as it now makes it both look like you just hit trip Js chasing overs and you also just went ahead of someone's flopped two-pair if you are doing this with a decent

This makes no sense. Who flopped two pair in this pot? Did we really 3-bet preflop with 74s or something? /images/graemlins/confused.gif Even the worst of players are going to put in a raise if they make 2-pair somewhere in the hand.

There is one thing that you need to consider in this spot, and it comes right out of HEPFAP. When a very good player check/raises you in protected pot (where the protector is bad), you should be aware that he might be making a move. If you think that he will only do it with a hand (we know that the bad player is calling all the way), it might be correct for him to try it with a hand like 99 or TT. He knows that the bad player doesn't have TT beat, so if he can get you to lay down QQ it would be genius. You really need a read when making these kinds of calls, and I don't feel like it is appropriate here. You also have to consider that he probably doesn't have a medium to big pair when he check/calls a 742 flop in a 3-way pot. This really lowers the chances that he has TT or 99.

Brad

[Kumubou]

Ugh, I take back what I said. One of my dumber posts.

I'm still no fan of folding though, as online you see some random plays. Probably should.

(My winrate was higher when I was folding more to crap like this -- but then again, I was hitting flops hard enough so that I was not folding twice an orbit. Arrgh.)

-K