QJo blind defense, line from the flop ?

[Trix]

Opponents stats are around 22vpip/16pfr/2.3AF/28ASB/40WSD/55won.

Party Poker 10/20 Hold'em (6 max, 6 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is BB with J/images/graemlins/club.gif, Q/images/graemlins/heart.gif.
<font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">CO raises</font>, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, Hero calls.

Flop: (4.50 SB) 3/images/graemlins/club.gif, K/images/graemlins/spade.gif, T/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>

[tizim]

I always check-raise the flop here against a TAG. From there, it shouldn't be too hard.

Edit: Oh yeah, and I check/fold the river UI if he calls the flop/turn.

[Trix]

How often would you estimate that he folds on the turn ?

[admiralfluff]

I will often checkraise here, but probably donk about 20% of the time depending on the flavor of TAG and my table image. Checkraising a flopped straight or flush draw, of which both are possible on this board, is a fairly standard line against a steal. A solid player betting out the flop often looks like a play to 3 bet, or set up a c/r on the turn, and has the benefit of keeping your opponents pot odds lower.

[tizim]

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How often would you estimate that he folds on the turn ?

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More than 1/5th of the time, I think. Lots of hands that call the flop checkraise have gutshots, and many players, even TAGs, don't like folding the flop for 1 bet.

[Stack]

This TAG's WSD is in the high range so I beleive that he'll see a showdown most of the time with A high. If from history I know he can fold, I'll c/r the flop and bet the turn. If I have not history with this guy I'll just check/call untill I improve because of his WSD.

I'm still trying to come out or my weak-tight shell though.

[dave44]

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More than 1/5th of the time, I think.

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I see us investing 4 SB to win 6.5 so I'm not understanding where folding him 1/5 of the time is pertinent.

[dave44]

I'm not sure that against a tight blind stealer like this guy, you wouldn't be better off playing your draw passively. There just aren't a lot of hands I think he's laying down here compared to the tons of hands that hit this flop enough to get to the river at least.

[JrJordan]

I don't think I'd try to play back very hard at this one. There's just too many hands here (made pairs and draws) that are going to have him going to the river for you to have that strong a folding equity edge. I'd check/call flop+turn for the draws and fold UI.

Perhaps if this were a rainbow flop, or my OESD included overs such as a 938 flop, then it's worth taking a stab.

[spydog]

You have decent equity against 95% of villian's holdings here on the flop, so going nutso by bet/3-betting or checkraising the flop isn't going to cost you much if you are behind. However, you will pick up a lot of fold equity against 22-99 and Ax hands. Therefore, I would play this fast and furious on the flop.

[Evan]

I'd check call the flop. This board just has too few ways to get him to fold based on this:

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28ASB/40WSD

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[Lmn55d]

I agree.

[spydog]

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I'd check call the flop. This board just has too few ways to get him to fold based on this:

[ QUOTE ]
28ASB/40WSD

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Um, you left off his W$SD at 55...... 40% WSD isn't very high when you take his W$SD into account. If his WSD was 40 and his W$SD was 44 then this 'PT read' might be relevant.

[Trix]

Figured I would give some results for those who cares.

I check-called twice and bet out on the river when it came 7s. He called with nines.

I think spydog may be right that I should check-raise here anyway, though it´s hard to get him to fold, but it´s also not that expensive to try as I have pretty good equity.

[wackjob]

I C/R either the flop or the turn depending on the opponent. With this guy I'm more likely to C/R the flop.

[mcvalenc]

Based on his range (28 ASB) I don't think you have enough fold equity on this particular flop, I like a flop check/call.