Raise the river?

[toss]

Villain is a 21/2.9/1.4 after 70 hands.

Party Poker 5/10 Hold'em (8 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is Button with J/images/graemlins/heart.gif, J/images/graemlins/diamond.gif.
<font color="#666666">4 folds</font>, CO calls, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, BB calls, CO calls.

Flop: (6.40 SB) A/images/graemlins/club.gif, K/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, J/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">BB bets</font>, CO calls, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, <font color="#CC3333">BB 3-bets</font>, CO folds, Hero calls.

Turn: (6.70 BB) 6/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">BB bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, BB calls.

River: (10.70 BB) K/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">BB bets</font>...

[shant]

As Ice Cube would say, "Yey-yeah."

[brettbrettr]

Yes.

[chief444]

I don't think so. He likely has two pair on the flop. I don't see him playing Ax this way...he's got fairly passive numbers. I don't see him having QT the way it played out. I think you should call. I think he has AK/KJ pretty often here.

[toss]

What range of hands do you put villain on the river?

[TakeMeToTheRiver]

Definitely raise the river. The only hand that beats you is KJ and there is only one J left.

[J. Sawyer]

I raise that river, I tink he plays AJ and maybe some other Aces that way if hes aggro.

And he will call a raise w/ AJ, AQ...

[chief444]

AK?

[toss]

Why would villain lead the river with AQ, AJ for? His stats (although over a small sample) imply he's not that aggressive postflop.

[shant]

[ QUOTE ]
What range of hands do you put villain on the river?

[/ QUOTE ]
Ew this guy has a PFR of 2.9? Missed that the first time around. 2.9 would include AK in his PFR range though, right? He would definitely raise AA or KK.

So KJ is yucky, but unlikely since 3 J's are out. Could he have QT and play like ass? or KQ? AQ? Kx/images/graemlins/spade.gif?

I guess the only thing I'd be worried about was AK played like a "drawing hand" preflop. Now I'm not as sure I want to raise, but you're only behind 6 combos of AK and 2 combos of KJ.

[meep_42]

Yes, raise.
Call a 3-bet and cry, though.

-d

[rryjew]

I'm definately raising the river here.

[CCovington]

I would raise the river against a laggier opponent, but villian has decent TAG stats, There are not many combinations of AK and KJ left, but those are the only hands I see him playing this way. It's a tough one though, call if he 3-bets?

[JinX11]

Not me. I'm great at missing value bets, however. Getting 3-bet here would suck, though.

[toss]

I getting a lot of "3-bet the river" guys, but only a few have provided reasoning. Are we going to raise because we think that villain betting with a worse hand 55% of the time? If so what worse hand will he play this way?

[toss]

Oh well I called and he showed ATo MHIG. Maybe I put too much trust into PT?

[CCovington]

I can only see villian playing this hand the way he did with AK,KQ,KJ, maybe AJ. He's going to 3bet you with AK and KJ, and call with KQ, and AJ. I'm not a real math wiz but I would guess he is equally likely to have AK and KJ as AJ or KQ. (I maybe wrong) I'd probably end up raising the river myself, but looking back I think it would be correct to just call. As we are only good here 50% of the time.

My math/reasoning may be off, if it is I'm sure one of you will put me in my place, thanks in advance. I'm just here trying to learn.

Hehe just read the results, guess I was wrong, and villian was a donkey.

[shant]

[ QUOTE ]
Oh well I called and he showed ATo MHIG. Maybe I put too much trust into PT?

[/ QUOTE ]
I just think people don't give enough credit to their opponents playing like ass.

[brazilio]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Oh well I called and he showed ATo MHIG. Maybe I put too much trust into PT?

[/ QUOTE ]
I just think people don't give enough credit to their opponents playing like ass.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'd say I agree, but I trust a river stop and go after a turn stop and go quite a bit. If I ever see stuff like this, I see it because that's their habitual play and usually just note it.

[meep_42]

K9s KTs QT AQ AJ (AT apparently) QQ 33 62s

Ok, I was getting silly at the end there.

-d

[HolyBejeesus]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
What range of hands do you put villain on the river?

[/ QUOTE ]
Ew this guy has a PFR of 2.9? Missed that the first time around. 2.9 would include AK in his PFR range though, right? He would definitely raise AA or KK.

[/ QUOTE ]

A lot of players will raise AK but won't 3bet it. AK is definitely a possibility here.

I think just calling is the way to go against an unknown. BB's flop 3bet indicates that he has at least a pair of aces, and since he led the river, he's either a total moron or just filled up. I don't think we can count on him being a total moron.

Think about the possible reasons he might donk the river. AK and KJ both improved, but not a huge amount. KJ isn't as likely given the stats. A more likely holding is any A/face. She donks the river because her kicker just got bigger. Also, AK and KJ are more likely to ch/r the river here given the turn action. I think I raise is right here.

[meep_42]

[ QUOTE ]
A lot of players will raise AK but won't 3bet it. AK is definitely a possibility here.

[/ QUOTE ]

So are a lot of hands - Villain called a raise from the BB, that's not exactly a tight range. Also, the really strong hands will check-raise here as Hero has shown he really likes his hand already and the K isn't really a truly scary card for an aggressive player like our Hero (if villain is observant/thinking).

-d

[HolyBejeesus]

[ QUOTE ]
Also, AK and KJ are more likely to ch/r the river here given the turn action.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is 100% player dependent. Some players like to donk it, others will CR.

[HolyBejeesus]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
A lot of players will raise AK but won't 3bet it. AK is definitely a possibility here.

[/ QUOTE ]

So are a lot of hands - Villain called a raise from the BB, that's not exactly a tight range. Also, the really strong hands will check-raise here as Hero has shown he really likes his hand already and the K isn't really a truly scary card for an aggressive player like our Hero (if villain is observant/thinking).

-d

[/ QUOTE ]


True. But consider the hands with which he might donk the river. Now look at the subset of those which 3-bet the flop. He isn't doing that with just a pair of kings. So he's either messing around on the river, or filled up. Since his PT stats are pretty tight/fairly passive, I'd say he filled up more often than not.

I think you have to take into account that many players (even those whose stats are not over-agressive) overplay their hands when they're defending from a "button steal". I think it's a clear raise on the river, as I could see a player with any ace play the hand the same way.

[hicherbie]

hiya toss.

you beat a lot of hands here...i think had he not been big blind, id be more inclined to give him credit for the bigger boat and not a janky king. id raise and call a 3.