I need your expert FFB draft help.

[27offsuit]

I would appreciate any advice you FFB people could give me. I play in one league with people I would very much like to crush. I am 'dead money' in this 12 man league.

So, here's what I have.....

In a serpentine(up & down) draft, I have the #2 selection of where I want to be in that draft order.

Do I take the #2 pick (if #1 is gone)?

and

Who's my #2 pick?

#23?

#26?

Any other draft position theories?


Thaks in advance to anyone who gives me any opinions. They are appreciated.

[brettbrettr]

I'd go #2 and take Priest. If you're dead money, you just have to gamble.

[LBJ]

[ QUOTE ]
I'd go #2 and take Priest. If you're dead money, you just have to gamble.

[/ QUOTE ]

In the majority of the fantasy leagues, Alexander is going #2, so you need to use the strategy they are allowing you to by picking you're own pick. Pick #3 and you'll be assured of either Priest or Alexander, most likely Priest.

[brettbrettr]

Good point.

[SossMan]

I would go 4th or 5th and take whoever falls to you. Edge, Manning, or Priest.

[tech]

No way I take Holmes over Alexander. Holmes has tons more risk without much more upside.

[brettbrettr]

[ QUOTE ]
No way I take Holmes over Alexander. Holmes has tons more risk without much more upside.

[/ QUOTE ]

10 td is a lot of upside to me.

[Josh W]

I somewhat agree with you Tech, but since the OP is "dead money", I'm thinking he should gamble by taking Priest. Priest's ceiling is much higher than Shaun's. Kinda like when you're in a poker tourny against all world class players, you are going to have to gamble to win, you can't hope to outplay them.

[scott8]

Just make sure to draft Larry Johnson and you have a RB in a system much better than Seattle.

[wayabvpar]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
No way I take Holmes over Alexander. Holmes has tons more risk without much more upside.

[/ QUOTE ]

10 td is a lot of upside to me.

[/ QUOTE ]

Are you saying that Holmes can put up 10 more TDs than Alexander this year? That is just asinine.

Sossman has the right idea- take the 4th or 5th spot. Someone ahead of you might make a mistake, and you are still guaranteed and elite player at that spot.

[brettbrettr]

[ QUOTE ]
Are you saying that Holmes can put up 10 more TDs than Alexander this year? That is just asinine.

[/ QUOTE ]

Why? Holmes scored 15 in 8 games last year. In the two preceding years he had 27 and 24.

Alexander had 20 least year, and 16 the years before.

Maybe 10 is a lot. But it isn't close to asinine.
Holmes is also much more inovlved in the pasing game, plays on a team that needs to put up 30+ pts to win etc.

Yes, the guy gets hurt. But if he doesn't he can win the league for you. And his back-up is solid enough that in that system you'll have a solid starter if Preist goes down.

[Bulldog]

Take the earliest spot available. The difference in value between #1 and #2, for example, is greater than the difference in value between #23 and #24. It's better to have the earlier pick in each of the earlier of the pair of rounds, all the way through.

To exaggerate the point to make it clear, would you rather have the first pick of the first round and the last pick of the last round, or the last pick of the first round and the first pick of the last round?

[SossMan]

[ QUOTE ]
Take the earliest spot available. The difference in value between #1 and #2, for example, is greater than the difference in value between #23 and #24. It's better to have the earlier pick in each of the earlier of the pair of rounds, all the way through.

To exaggerate the point to make it clear, would you rather have the first pick of the first round and the last pick of the last round, or the last pick of the first round and the first pick of the last round?

[/ QUOTE ]

this analysis completely ignores tiers of talent and opponents propensity to draft players way too early.

[27offsuit]

Thanks guys. It's been helpful.

Any advice on what NOT to do. Someone spoke of drafting guys too early. I've made some huge blunders in the past and would like to avoid any brainfarts.

Three of my best blunders of the past....

1: I drafted Willis McGahee 2 years ago and he didn't play one down all year. "Nice pick Rook" was the response, I believe.

2: I drafted Tom Brady as my #1 QB because I live 3 miles from Gillette Stadium.

3: I had Eddy George as my #2 RB all year LAST year (Man, I'm embarassed even typing that).


So now you know what you're dealing with guys. I want to learn so don't pull any punches. I suck but I don't want to.

Thanks

[Bill C]

I think I'd ask for #5, because the key would be to be as early in round two as possible. And If Manning was still there at #5, I'd take him; if not take the best RB still available and forget QB until later rounds. I'd avoid Holmes and McGahee because of injury probs.

You wouldn't get LT, even at #2, and actually he may not be the player he was L/Y when they played a 5th place sched.
At #5, if Manning's gone, and I assume LT, Alexander, Holmes, and maybe Edge are gone too, you have quite a nice selection of very high quality RBs, and can probably get good value with both your first two. McAllister would be a nice choice here, and then take Any of several that will probably be around at #19 on the loop-back: Lamont Jordan comes to mind, but there are plenty of others, too. And then go for some WRs next; there are plenty of good ones this year. If you don't get Manning, wait until maybe 5-6 QBs are gone and see what's left.

One suggestion: get cheatsheets that are separated by position, and mark off who's been taken as the draft goes on, so you'll be able to spot good players that are still unchosen. This is fairly rudimentary, but you may not have thought of it.

Make a decision about whether or not you're serious, and if you are, play tough all the way to the end of the draft, and skip the brewskis until later!

Hope this is of some help 27offsuit; your posts on SSH have been of help to me, and our positions are reversed there!

bill /images/graemlins/cool.gif

[JayLear]

[ QUOTE ]
I would appreciate any advice you FFB people could give me. I play in one league with people I would very much like to crush. I am 'dead money' in this 12 man league.

So, here's what I have.....

In a serpentine(up & down) draft, I have the #2 selection of where I want to be in that draft order.

Do I take the #2 pick (if #1 is gone)?

and

Who's my #2 pick?

#23?

#26?

Any other draft position theories?


Thaks in advance to anyone who gives me any opinions. They are appreciated.

[/ QUOTE ]

How does scoring work in your league? If passing TD's are worth as much as rushing or receiving TD's, Manning is the easy #2.

[JayLear]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
No way I take Holmes over Alexander. Holmes has tons more risk without much more upside.

[/ QUOTE ]

10 td is a lot of upside to me.

[/ QUOTE ]

I would take Holmes over Alexander in a heartbeat -- but make sure you don't miss out on handcuffing Larry Johnson.

Are you saying that Holmes can put up 10 more TDs than Alexander this year? That is just asinine.

Sossman has the right idea- take the 4th or 5th spot. Someone ahead of you might make a mistake, and you are still guaranteed and elite player at that spot.

[/ QUOTE ]

[JayLear]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
No way I take Holmes over Alexander. Holmes has tons more risk without much more upside.

[/ QUOTE ]

10 td is a lot of upside to me.

[/ QUOTE ]
Are you saying that Holmes can put up 10 more TDs than Alexander this year? That is just asinine.

Sossman has the right idea- take the 4th or 5th spot. Someone ahead of you might make a mistake, and you are still guaranteed and elite player at that spot.

[/ QUOTE ]

I would take Holmes over Alexander in a heartbeat -- but make sure you don't miss out on handcuffing Larry Johnson.

[McGahee]

[ QUOTE ]
You wouldn't get LT, even at #2, and actually he may not be the player he was L/Y when they played a 5th place sched.


[/ QUOTE ]

First/Last place schedules are so incredibly overrated. Only 2 games are dependent on the previous year's record - the other 14 are set in stone 10 years ahead of time.
LT also had a badly injured groin thru most of last year that really hurt his YPC, but he still scored every week.

[JayLear]

[ QUOTE ]
Thanks guys. It's been helpful.

Any advice on what NOT to do. Someone spoke of drafting guys too early. I've made some huge blunders in the past and would like to avoid any brainfarts.

Three of my best blunders of the past....

1: I drafted Willis McGahee 2 years ago and he didn't play one down all year. "Nice pick Rook" was the response, I believe.

2: I drafted Tom Brady as my #1 QB because I live 3 miles from Gillette Stadium.

3: I had Eddy George as my #2 RB all year LAST year (Man, I'm embarassed even typing that).


So now you know what you're dealing with guys. I want to learn so don't pull any punches. I suck but I don't want to.

Thanks

[/ QUOTE ]
"Keep It Simple, Stupid". I've seen more people get themselves into trouble trying to be "cute". I was drafting for a friend this past weekend and saw some crazy stuff. Let "sleeper" picks be just that. Stay solid, and try and get as many sure things as you can. Make sure you get your starting lineup and reasonable backups at QB, RB, and WR, and then start looking for value picks and sleepers. A sleeper as a second RB or WR is a bad thing. For example, no matter how much you hear about JJ Arrington, he's a sleeper. He can turn out to be a very solid value if taken in the late third or fourth round, but once you take him in the second round, you're raised your expectations on a player that may be a collosal bust. I don't think they've even given him the starting job yet. Put it this way -- I look at JJ Arrington, and all I see is Trung Canidate. Look it up -- both were second round picks and undersized, flashy, cut-back runners. Canidate had the same hype when he was drafted.

[27offsuit]

[ QUOTE ]

One suggestion: get cheatsheets that are separated by position, and mark off who's been taken as the draft goes on, so you'll be able to spot good players that are still unchosen. This is fairly rudimentary, but you may not have thought of it.


Hope this is of some help 27offsuit; your posts on SSH have been of help to me, and our positions are reversed there!

bill /images/graemlins/cool.gif

[/ QUOTE ]

I do do the cheatsheets during the draft. Thanks for the input. I'll definitely use it.

[27offsuit]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I would appreciate any advice you FFB people could give me. I play in one league with people I would very much like to crush. I am 'dead money' in this 12 man league.

So, here's what I have.....

In a serpentine(up & down) draft, I have the #2 selection of where I want to be in that draft order.

Do I take the #2 pick (if #1 is gone)?

and

Who's my #2 pick?

#23?

#26?

Any other draft position theories?


Thaks in advance to anyone who gives me any opinions. They are appreciated.

[/ QUOTE ]

How does scoring work in your league? If passing TD's are worth as much as rushing or receiving TD's, Manning is the easy #2.

[/ QUOTE ]

They are, and I'm giving it serious consideration.

But what do you think that will leave me for #1 RB options when it gets around to me again?

[JayLear]

[ QUOTE ]
They are, and I'm giving it serious consideration.

But what do you think that will leave me for #1 RB options when it gets around to me again?

[/ QUOTE ]
There will be a lot of good running backs left when you come back around in the second round. If you're drafting second, that leaves you with the 23rd pick, and then the 26th pick turning the corner in the 3rd round. Reasonably you could come back and take a running bck at both of those spots, and find many serviceable players there. For example, Curtis Martin, Tatum Bell, Steven Jackson, Bryan Westbrook, rookies such as Ronnie Brown, Cadillac Williams. If I'm you, I take Manning in the first round, fill my RB spots in the second and third, and then go for WR -- maybe a TE in the 4th or 5th if Gonzo or Gates are still there.

[brettbrettr]

Curtis Martin is much more than servicable.

[JayLear]

[ QUOTE ]
Curtis Martin is much more than servicable.

[/ QUOTE ]
Agreed. I mentioned him only as a strong possibility to be around late in the second round. And let's not kid ourselves. Curtis Martin was a pleasant surpise for fantasy owners last year. Huge rebound after a couple of down years. I got him in the 4th round last year, and won it all with him.

[brettbrettr]

Of those you mentioned, I like Cutis, Westbrook, and Cadillac. The others are really ?. Huge upsides on all of em, but their situations are murky. Cadillac is mruky too, but less than the rest from what I hear.

[JayLear]

There aren't may players out there without question marks. At this point, we don't know if T.O. will play this year. Does that mean he won't get picked in the second round? I think Cadillac is going to be a load back for the Bucs this year. I need to see what happens in the next couple of weeks with Tatum Bell before I come to a conclusion on him.

[27offsuit]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
They are, and I'm giving it serious consideration.

But what do you think that will leave me for #1 RB options when it gets around to me again?

[/ QUOTE ]
There will be a lot of good running backs left when you come back around in the second round. If you're drafting second, that leaves you with the 23rd pick, and then the 26th pick turning the corner in the 3rd round. Reasonably you could come back and take a running bck at both of those spots, and find many serviceable players there. For example, Curtis Martin, Tatum Bell, Steven Jackson, Bryan Westbrook, rookies such as Ronnie Brown, Cadillac Williams. If I'm you, I take Manning in the first round, fill my RB spots in the second and third, and then go for WR -- maybe a TE in the 4th or 5th if Gonzo or Gates are still there.

[/ QUOTE ]

Thanks for some solid info.