Lets together count Hero's outs.... Would you?

[Akimka]

I'll try to make usefull post /images/graemlins/smile.gif

In this hand how many outs my draw worth? And so would you call a turn?

And, alas, how about flop. Raise is good?

Only 10 hands on SB, but he played 6 of them and raised 3 of them (in real life I see only his stats so I will not say what hands he plays/raised)

Party Poker 2/4 Hold'em (10 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is UTG+1 with Q/images/graemlins/heart.gif, A/images/graemlins/club.gif.
<font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, <font color="#666666">6 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">SB 3-bets</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, Hero calls.

Flop: (7 SB) 6/images/graemlins/club.gif, K/images/graemlins/club.gif, Q/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">SB bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, SB calls.

Turn: (5.50 BB) J/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">SB bets</font>, Hero calls.

River: (7.50 BB) 7/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">SB bets</font>, Hero folds.

Final Pot: 8.50 BB

[toss]

Roughly 5.5 outs. If SB has AK we have 6 outs, if SB has KQ we have 7 outs, if SB has KK or QQ, we have 4 outs, AA is 6 outs. Average of 5.75 outs, minus flush draw discounting, plus the chance he doesn't have a hand at all for about 5.5 outs. Haha my calculations are so suspect.

[istewart]

If SB has AK we have 4 outs.

[Akimka]

[ QUOTE ]
Roughly 5.5 outs. If SB has AK we have 6 outs, if SB has KQ we have 7 outs, if SB has KK or QQ, we have 4 outs, AA is 6 outs. Average of 5.75 outs, minus flush draw discounting, plus the chance he doesn't have a hand at all for about 5.5 outs. Haha my calculations are so suspect.

[/ QUOTE ]

So - you fold this turn?

[ QUOTE ]
If SB has AK we have 4 outs.

[/ QUOTE ]

4 tens + 2 queens = 6 outs

EDIT: against AK, each T results in a split pot... kills our odds really. Maybe I agree with the 4 outs then.

[toss]

Ooops, split pot. So more like 5 outs total?

[toss]

Yeah, I fold the turn, but when I'm actually playing I 'm more likely just to guess how many out I have and base my action on that.

[istewart]

I think his range is probably JJ+, AKs, AKo, and AQs/AQo but I think these last two should be lessened in probability. Turn call seems pretty thin.

I would not be surprised to see a JJ or TT here, both of which improve on the turn and give SB a reason to donk it. She sounds aggressive, so I call into question why she didn't continue on the flop. Other possibilities are AJ or JTs.

[shant]

Fold the turn or call him down.

[meep_42]

Why are we raising the flop?

-d

[Akimka]

[ QUOTE ]
Why are we raising the flop?

-d

[/ QUOTE ]

semibluff. nah?

[istewart]

Unless he's a complete LAG (I'm not sure if that's what you were trying to indicate in the read), he has a lot of hands that are better than yours and a few (99-JJ) that you would not like him to fold.

[sy_or_bust]

The flop raise is not a semi-bluff.

[Akimka]

[ QUOTE ]
The flop raise is not a semi-bluff.

[/ QUOTE ]

So - what to do on flop? Call?

[chief444]

You're opponent has played 11 hands now, VPIPed 7 of them, and raised 4 of them...why do you assume you're drawing? I think the river fold is bad.

I just call the flop as well.

[BWebb]

Way too many people are saying 6 or 7 outs. An ace improves your hand, but also kills you against a 10 or AK, so 1.5 (maybe even a little generous there).
A 10 gives you the nuts (ruling out flush draw), but it could also lead to a split pot, 2 outs. A Q improves your hand, but doesn't neccessarily to a winner, 1 out. I'd say at MOST 4.5 outs. 6 or 7 is way too many.