big blinds bubble spot with JJ

[schwza]

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t400 (4 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

BB (t1810)
UTG (t1385)
Hero (t1785)
SB (t3020)

Preflop: Hero is Button with J/images/graemlins/heart.gif, J/images/graemlins/diamond.gif.
<font color="#CC3333">UTG raises to t1000</font>, hero?

villain has been on aggro side, but not a maniac.

[tigerite]

Pushes, quickly.

[illegit]

Retardedly simple push.

[kyro]

[ QUOTE ]
Retardedly simple push.

[/ QUOTE ]

a dick post but spot on. what else were you considering schwza?

[schwza]

i pushed pretty quickly, but i was wondering if this was one of those bubble spots where i think it's an auto-push and others don't.

anyone wanna take a stab at the lowest pair you push here?

i think i'd push 99 and fold 77, not sure on 88.

[junkmail3]

[ QUOTE ]
i pushed pretty quickly, but i was wondering if this was one of those bubble spots where i think it's an auto-push and others don't.

anyone wanna take a stab at the lowest pair you push here?

i think i'd push 99 and fold 77, not sure on 88.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think I'd push down to 99, think about 88, like you said.

I also think you're worried about getting in against 2 overs, and wonder if you want to be in a coinflip situation at this point, or if you just want to steal a few blinds to get it back.

however, I think JJ is too strong and you only have AK, AQ, KQ to worry about (obviouslly AAKKQQ), but I think you'll be a significant favorite too often to think of this as a marginal push.

[lastchance]

Considering UTG is small stack, and you have JJ with 5x BB, there's almost no way I could hope to lay this down.

[illegit]

Honestly with an M of 3 and an even lower effective M... I don't see myself folding hardly any pair as long as I think hands like AT, KQ, KJ, A9s etc. are in villain's range, which they probably are 4-handed and short stacked. Yeah you're racing at best and could be crushed, but with the blinds this big you can't do much about it.

I think with 55 you're at about even-money equity against his ROH, and with 44-22 taking the worst of it but i still might gamble it up knowing that. But 66 or better is an auto-push IMO.

[mosdef]

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Honestly with an M of 3 and an even lower effective M...

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oooohhh.... impressive jargon.

[schwza]

pushing 55 is v. bad here, imo.

[Gramps]

[ QUOTE ]
villain has been on aggro side, but not a maniac.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'd probably go to war with 88 here and maybe 77 (58% against top 1/2 hands) - aggro + UTG FE-protection push = wide range of hands for UTG. You'll get more 4ths, but more 2nds and 1sts. If you fold, you're not in the best of spots either (assuming BB doesn't go to war here or SB call and win).

[ QUOTE ]
BB (t1810)
UTG (t1385)
Hero (t1785)
SB (t3020)

UTG raises to t1000...

[/ QUOTE ]

If you fold and UTG steals the blinds, the chips stacks are:

(new) SB 1410
Button 2820
BB 1985
Hero 1785

You're paying 600 in the next two hands and are about on par with the other two shorter stacks, that should factor somewhat into your calling range.

[illegit]

[ QUOTE ]
pushing 55 is v. bad here, imo.

[/ QUOTE ]
What's the alternative? If you fold, you're UTG next deal. Now with a bit of FE myself UTG I probably have to open-push with almost anything (which is actually not a bad situation), but if not you fold, next hand you're in the BB and the button or SB will be stealing with almost anything if the big stack isn't and you'll likely be compelled to call with anything reasonable as opposed to getting blinded off (if the other short stack already hasn't made a stand by this point). If the others are playing too tight and folding around to the BB was common then maybe I could wait for a better spot but I just don't see that happening often. Either double and have a good shot at 1st or 2nd or bubble bust but you're making more money long run than if you play too tight in these situations (i.e. everyone has a low M on the bubble) which leads to more 3rds and 4ths where taking a stand will lead to more 1sts and 4ths.

[schwza]

if you push 55, the BB (and SB) can come in with impugnity, knowing they cash unless utg wins and i beat BB in the side. even then BB has some remote comeback chance. that's one problem.

a bigger problem is that you're (i think) behind utg's range even if the blinds stay out.

if you do get a flip, you're not psyched about it. you do have a little overlay with dead money and being on the right side of the flip, but you essentially give the BB a free pass to the money.

finally, there's a decent chance utg is getting called by a blind if you stay out of the way. give somebody else a chance to bust him.