Poll: Calling standards on bubble when BB will be all in next hand.

Here are the chip counts, you are short stacked in the small blind. Blinds are 150/300

UTG: 60
BTN: 3960
SB: 670
BB: 3310

UTG folds, he has been playing tight and folded off his last small blind to save his 60 chips. Button raises to 800, he has been playing a very agressive game since we have neared the money. Big blind has been playing a loose game, but more passive. Earlier he called a big raise with A9o for more than half his stack to knock out 5th place finisher.

You have posted 150 of your 670. This leaves you with 520 should you choose to fold. Blinds go up to 200/400 in two hands. The key to your decision will be that the tiny stack will be all in for his big blind next hand, and even if he wins that hand vs. the small blind he will be all in again the next hand. Which of the following hands are you willing to call with:

The hand that made me consider this question was the JJ. I made the call as did the big blind behind me. The final board read AQ5JK the checked it down until the button bet on the river with his T5s. At the time I was pissed I made the call, but upon deeper analysis I think I would make the call again. Along with the KK and the AK. Thoughts?

[45suited]

The only hand that I would even consider calling with here is KK, and I'd have to give that some more thought. IMO, all the other hands listed are no-brainer folds.

[Nacarno]

Assuming the BB folds if you call, and you win your equity, according to ICM, becomes 0.2827 from 0.2236. This means that you need to win nearly 80% of the time for call to be correct. Only KK approaches this, but that's if the big stack is pushing any two. If his range is any narrower I think this is a fold.

[Nacarno]

Oh, and if the BB calls you need to be ~75% to win against two players. So yeah... if you think the BB might call anyway, fold all those hands.

Thanks for your thoughts, I will definetly have to reconsider how I play spots like this. For what its worth, how much, if any, does your approach change if the UTG short stack has 360 chips as opposed to 60?

[Nacarno]

I'm going to assume that the 300 extra chips are coming from the 2nd largest stack so it's still the button that's the chip leader. In this case your equity if you call and win (and the BB folds) goes from 0.1734 to 0.2596 so you only need to win ~67% of the time to make the call correct. So now KK and JJ are clear calls and the rest of the hands (except for KJs) are close.

If the button likes to push aces I probably call with AKo and AQs because you have him dominated so often, but if he's pushing any two I'd consider folding them especially if I think the BB might play. And again, if the BB is prone to make loose calls, tighten up.

[good2cu]

All of these are easy folds as ICM says you need to be 80% here, and even KK is unlikly to be 80% here. I'd call with AA only.

[tigerite]

I would reluctantly call with KK. Fold everything else, bar AA of course. And, it's not even close.

[tigerite]

[ QUOTE ]
Thanks for your thoughts, I will definetly have to reconsider how I play spots like this. For what its worth, how much, if any, does your approach change if the UTG short stack has 360 chips as opposed to 60?

[/ QUOTE ]

A fair bit, then I would be calling with smaller pairs, and I'd give AK some thought.

[Nicok7]

Note that if shortstack somehow survives you are all in next time the blinds come back. I call with KK JJ and AK for sure, all hands where I might have the opponnent dominated, and could also triple up sometimes, or convice bully to let me breath next round, thus giving me some chances to end up first.

[tigerite]

Somehow survives the BB and SB? Not likely. Sorry but calling AK here is a huge leak of chips, the -EV is probably something sick.

If you call this with AKo, your bubble play sucks. Period. JJ is better but still a pretty clear fold.

[Nicok7]

JJ will most likely be a 2/1 favorite, AK will quiet often have raiser dominated.
I can see the point for folding, haven't done the ICM but I do believe making a stand now with premium hands is not that bad. AA KK QQ and AKs are definitly calling hands for me. AKo and JJ will make me cringe but I will most likely call.

[tigerite]

[ QUOTE ]
JJ will most likely be a 2/1 favorite, AK will quiet often have raiser dominated.
I can see the point for folding, haven't done the ICM but I do believe making a stand now with premium hands is not that bad. AA KK QQ and AKs are definitly calling hands for me. AKo and JJ will make me cringe but I will most likely call.

[/ QUOTE ]

66% favourite isn't enough in this spot. But ok keep playing like this, and please sit at my table.

[Nicok7]

Since I tok the time to give reasons for my play, would you like to explain why I am wrong, since forum is an exchange of information

Or should I just take your word for the truth due to you being my elder on this forum? /images/graemlins/grin.gif

[tigerite]

Because UTG is on 60 chips.. and worrying about him surviving SB and BB and then you not getting a hand good enough in the SB or BB yourself is not going to happen even 1% of the time. It shouldn't enter the equation at all, so it's a simple chip equity equation using ICM.. therefore use SNGPT, or whatever, and you'll see it's a clear fold..

[Ixnert]

[ QUOTE ]
JJ will most likely be a 2/1 favorite, AK will quiet often have raiser dominated.
I can see the point for folding, haven't done the ICM but I do believe making a stand now with premium hands is not that bad. AA KK QQ and AKs are definitly calling hands for me. AKo and JJ will make me cringe but I will most likely call.

[/ QUOTE ]

As someone else pointed out earlier in the thread, you need to be something like an 80% favorite to make this an ICM-correct call. With AK, that means you would have to be SURE that you had the raiser dominated (since you're about a 4:1 favorite in such situations). Since raiser will certainly be playing pairs (and, frankly, could be playing absolutely anything, which means you have to average in lots of hands you're only about a 2:1 favorite over), you're not an aggregate 80% favorite, not even close.

AA, KK, and I might momentarily consider playing queens. Anything else and you apparently hate money.

[jackaaron]

I have absolutely no problem sounding weaker than weak when I say I would fold them all. Yes, even KK. The guy putting me all in could have an ace, and hit it. I've placed in the money so many times in sng's that I feel my strategy on this is right, but I wouldn't disagree AT ALL with someone that would say he would call with every single hand you just spoke of. In fact, I encourage him. Why?
Example:
Last night, I'm in the BB with 750 (down to three of us, so I'm in the money). SB has roughly 3K, and the button has around 10k (PS starts with 1500 stacks, and 9 people).

Anyhow, the button raises what would put me all in with KJ suited. The SB calls the raise. We're at 400/800, so I think, let them do battle (side note, I would have called had the SB not called). Long story short, the SB goes out and I've got even more money. Couldn't come back on the big stack though. So, I generally make money because of the players that feel that they are "playing to win."

Again, I don't want to seem like I think other people's way is wrong. It most definitely is not. I'm just putting my opinion in.

[Nicok7]

Don't get me wrong I don't "play to win", I play to maximize return and hourly rate, wich in most cases means shoot for first, but obvously not in instances were there is a very short stack and a very huge one, were placing is obviously your first priority. My first instinct tells me against folding premium hands in the bubble, that might be something I have to review since ICM seems (haven't checked the math, but am sure it s been done correctly) to indicate a clear fold.