Hm...odds to call here? [Archive] - Two Plus Two Older Archives

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Eeegah

08-15-2005, 01:38 AM

Unfortunately you're gonna have to go without reads here; as you can see it's my first hand at the table, and on top of that I've just started Stars .50/1 so I don't have anything in the way of previous hands with these people.

PokerStars 0.50/1.00 Hold'em (10 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is MP3 with T/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, K/images/graemlins/heart.gif. UTG posts a blind of $0.50. Hero posts a blind of $0.50. CO posts a blind of $0.50.
UTG (poster) checks, 1 fold, UTG+2 calls, MP1 calls, 1 fold, Hero (poster) checks, CO (poster) checks, Button calls, SB completes, BB checks.

Flop: (8 SB) 7/images/graemlins/club.gif, 8/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 6/images/graemlins/club.gif (8 players)
SB folds, BB bets, UTG calls, UTG+2 calls, MP1 folds, Hero calls, CO folds, Button calls.

Turn: (6.50 BB) J/images/graemlins/heart.gif (5 players)
BB bets, UTG folds, UTG+2 calls, Hero...

Hmmmm. It's 8.5:1 to me; that's enough to justify about 4.75 outs or so. Do I have that here? A 9 gives me a somewhat weak one-card straight, but the only hand that beats me there is QT--I'm probably ahead, but I do need to account for a split. I also have one overcard, but for all I know the straight could already be out there; two pair is also a possibility as people like playing connectors. I'm also not closing the action, but my gut feeling is that the Button isn't going to raise behind me (I have no justification for this gut feeling whatsoever BTW). I have a maximum of 5.5 outs, but after I discount it feels like a coinflip to me. Anyone want to argue one way or another?

Disconnected

08-15-2005, 01:41 AM

I'd fold. You do have the straight possibility (and I wouldn't worry too much about QT, more that you may split), but 2 of those outs put 3 to a flush on the board as well.

bozlax

08-15-2005, 02:08 AM

Without a read that BB will bet the flop and turn with unimproved overcards, I think that you need to pick a better spot.

08-15-2005, 03:20 AM

A couple things I would consider when deciding whether or not to call:

1) the pot is small (6.5BB)
2) no reads on anyone yet
3) 2 of your 4 9s would put a 3 flush on board
4) someone could still have overcards that beat yours

I would fold, the pot size doesn't justify calling this down. You could already be drawing dead to the straight, wait for a better opportunity.

Eeegah

08-16-2005, 03:15 AM

I didn't take into account the 2-flush, so yeah this looks like a fold.

Here's the playout:

PokerStars 0.50/1.00 Hold'em (10 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is MP3 with T/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, K/images/graemlins/heart.gif. UTG posts a blind of $0.50. Hero posts a blind of $0.50. CO posts a blind of $0.50.
UTG (poster) checks, 1 fold, UTG+2 calls, MP1 calls, 1 fold, Hero (poster) checks, CO (poster) checks, Button calls, SB completes, BB checks.

Flop: (8 SB) 7/images/graemlins/club.gif, 8/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 6/images/graemlins/club.gif (8 players)
SB folds, BB bets, UTG calls, UTG+2 calls, MP1 folds, Hero calls, CO folds, Button calls.

Turn: (6.50 BB) J/images/graemlins/heart.gif (5 players)
BB bets, UTG folds, UTG+2 calls, Hero folds, Button folds.

River: (8.50 BB) K/images/graemlins/spade.gif (2 players)
BB checks, UTG+2 checks.

Final Pot: 8.50 BB

Results in white below: 
BB has 6h 9d (one pair, sixes).
UTG+2 has Tc Ts (one pair, tens).
Outcome: UTG+2 wins 8.50 BB. 

I like the fold so I'm not going to bitch about how it turned out, but I would like to call attention to UTG+2. Later on he limped QQ and then proceeded to raise KTs UTG. This is weird, and I don't really know what to make of that.

08-16-2005, 03:19 AM

That flop is superbly coordinated. You have 4 outs to gutshot plus 3 to your over, but your club outs are no good, and you might be reverse dominated.

Fold.

SoftcoreRevolt

08-16-2005, 03:19 AM

[ QUOTE ]

I like the fold so I'm not going to bitch about how it turned out, but I would like to call attention to UTG+2. Later on he limped QQ and then proceeded to raise KTs UTG. This is weird, and I don't really know what to make of that.

[/ QUOTE ]

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