Ok, I am CERTAIN this hand is obvious... [Archive]

durron597

08-15-2005, 12:33 AM

... except for maybe the freemoney principle. My image is good, and this player both did not give me reason to believe he would minraise a big pair and was not a super calling station. There is nothing in my history at this table that would make it seem like I might pull this, and I've never played with Button before.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t200 (4 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Button (t2030)
SB (t8650)
Hero (t2240)
UTG (t580)

Preflop: Hero is BB with 2/images/graemlins/club.gif, 8/images/graemlins/spade.gif.
1 fold, Button raises to t400, 1 fold, Hero raises to t2215,

Shilly

08-15-2005, 12:35 AM

I like to use this play a lot, and this seems like an almost-perfect spot. It's nice to have a little room for error (say, if you had an extra 200-300 chips in your stack), but this looks good to me.

08-15-2005, 12:48 AM

What's the buy-in? Can we trust that the button knows to play tight on the bubble?

BadMongo

08-15-2005, 01:02 AM

If the button is not a complete donk, I like this play a lot.

45suited

08-15-2005, 01:08 AM

I guess I'm the only one who thinks that the risk / reward ratio of this play is a little off. I know that your move is predicated on the presence of the small stack, but I'm not a big fan of it for that very reason. Putting your tournament at risk on the hopes that your opponent has a brain seems a little FPS to me actually.

Granted, button mini-raised, but he did it with the super bigstack still to act in the SB. He could've simply laid back and tried to fold ITM, so he obviously has SOMETHING. Why risk your tournament (essentially) on the hope that he folds?

durron597

08-15-2005, 01:12 AM

[ QUOTE ]
He could've simply laid back and tried to fold ITM, so he obviously has SOMETHING. Why risk your tournament (essentially) on the hope that he folds?

[/ QUOTE ]

Because I keep getting blinded off in these things and I'm trying to stop /images/graemlins/frown.gif

08-15-2005, 01:12 AM

I agree.

45suited

08-15-2005, 01:16 AM

[ QUOTE ]
Because I keep getting blinded off in these things and I'm trying to stop

[/ QUOTE ]

But you have 10 BBs. You're not the shortstack. Let him make the desperation moves. Ever since I stopped making some of the usual 2+2 fancy moves, my ROI has gone way, way up. At our level (we play similar buy-ins), make your money banking on the stupidity and bad play of your opponents, not by banking on them suddenly waking up and acting logically.

Most likely, he isn't thinking big picture. He is saying to himself, "I like my AQ and I'm not folding it."

Shilly

08-15-2005, 01:19 AM

[ QUOTE ]
Granted, button mini-raised, but he did it with the super bigstack still to act in the SB. He could've simply laid back and tried to fold ITM, so he obviously has SOMETHING. Why risk your tournament (essentially) on the hope that he folds?

[/ QUOTE ]

You see this as a reason why button has a hand, but I see it as him having a hand he's not willing to die with. In my experience, he would have just pushed here with a strong hand. Instead, he wanted to take down the blinds without committing his whole stack. I'm still pushing here.

45suited

08-15-2005, 01:22 AM

[ QUOTE ]
You see this as a reason why button has a hand, but I see it as him having a hand he's not willing to die with. In my experience, he would have just pushed here with a strong hand. Instead, he wanted to take down the blinds without committing his whole stack. I'm still pushing here.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is probably buy-in dependent. I almost never do stuff like this at the 11s and 22s and I can almost guarantee that my results are in the top 5% at those levels. They are really just so unnecessary. Even if this play works, yes, it's nice, but you will be called way more often than you'd ever imagine at the lower buy-ins.

fluorescenthippo

08-15-2005, 01:30 AM

the shortstack isnt a short enough stack. i dont like it unless you have a good read

durron597

08-15-2005, 01:38 AM

[ QUOTE ]
the shortstack isnt a short enough stack. i dont like it unless you have a good read

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah, I guess so because he ended up winning the SnG /images/graemlins/frown.gif (long story of course but suffice it to say it involved Q9o sucking out on my QQ).

nate_king1

08-15-2005, 01:42 AM

[ QUOTE ]
... except for maybe the freemoney principle. My image is good, and this player both did not give me reason to believe he would minraise a big pair and was not a super calling station. There is nothing in my history at this table that would make it seem like I might pull this, and I've never played with Button before.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t200 (4 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Button (t2030)
SB (t8650)
Hero (t2240)
UTG (t580)

Preflop: Hero is BB with 2/images/graemlins/club.gif, 8/images/graemlins/spade.gif.
1 fold, Button raises to t400, 1 fold, Hero raises to t2215,

[/ QUOTE ]

What is freemoney principle.

durron597

08-15-2005, 01:45 AM

[ QUOTE ]

What is freemoney principle.

[/ QUOTE ]

Use the search function for subject only.

Shillx

08-15-2005, 01:46 AM

I like the push when you have plenty of chips to withstand someone making a poor call (which seems to happen all the time). With just a few hundred more then the 3rd place guy, I don't know how much I like this play. Seems like the risk:reward ratio is pretty high here.

Brad

freemoney

08-15-2005, 02:35 AM

i dont think theres any way this play can be right.

Jman28

08-15-2005, 02:42 AM

[ QUOTE ]
i dont think theres any way this play can be right.

[/ QUOTE ]

really?

I think it's right against most opponents.

45suited

08-15-2005, 02:53 AM

[ QUOTE ]
I think it's right against most opponents.

[/ QUOTE ]

Jman, you play at high buy-ins. I'm guessing that Durron's post is from a $16 buy-in. I'm going to re-post a hand that I just posted from a game I just played on a PP $11.

[ QUOTE ]
Seat 7 is the button
Total number of players : 4
Seat 9: TOMMYTBONE7 ( $1373 )
Seat 6: HERO ( $835 )
Seat 7: SwHiFi ( $925 )
Seat 8: bigdaddykdp ( $4867 )

Blinds(100/200)
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to HERO [ 2s Ah ]
HERO folds.
SwHiFi calls [200].
bigdaddykdp calls [100].
TOMMYTBONE7 is all-In [1173]
SwHiFi is all-In [725]
bigdaddykdp folds.

** Dealing Flop ** [ 9s, 5d, 6c ]
** Dealing Turn ** [ 6d ]
** Dealing River ** [ Ts ]

TOMMYTBONE7 shows [ Td, Ac ] two pairs, tens and sixes.
SwHiFi shows [ 2h, 2d ] two pairs, sixes and twos.
TOMMYTBONE7 wins 448 chips from side pot #1 with two pairs, tens and sixes.
TOMMYTBONE7 wins 2050 chips from the main pot with two pairs, tens and sixes.
SwHiFi finished in fourth place.

[/ QUOTE ]

In this hand, BB pushed after two limpers with the bigstack still in the hand. The initial LIMPER called him with 22. Are you kidding me??? Two points:

1) People at low buy-ins are idiots. Don't expect them to suddenly get smart on you and fold when they should.

2) Because they are idiots, FPS stuff like this is completely unnecessary.

08-15-2005, 03:06 AM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I think it's right against most opponents.

[/ QUOTE ]

Jman, you play at high buy-ins. I'm guessing that Durron's post is from a $16 buy-in. I'm going to re-post a hand that I just posted from a game I just played on a PP $11.

[ QUOTE ]
Seat 7 is the button
Total number of players : 4
Seat 9: TOMMYTBONE7 ( $1373 )
Seat 6: HERO ( $835 )
Seat 7: SwHiFi ( $925 )
Seat 8: bigdaddykdp ( $4867 )

Blinds(100/200)
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to HERO [ 2s Ah ]
HERO folds.
SwHiFi calls [200].
bigdaddykdp calls [100].
TOMMYTBONE7 is all-In [1173]
SwHiFi is all-In [725]
bigdaddykdp folds.

** Dealing Flop ** [ 9s, 5d, 6c ]
** Dealing Turn ** [ 6d ]
** Dealing River ** [ Ts ]

TOMMYTBONE7 shows [ Td, Ac ] two pairs, tens and sixes.
SwHiFi shows [ 2h, 2d ] two pairs, sixes and twos.
TOMMYTBONE7 wins 448 chips from side pot #1 with two pairs, tens and sixes.
TOMMYTBONE7 wins 2050 chips from the main pot with two pairs, tens and sixes.
SwHiFi finished in fourth place.

[/ QUOTE ]

In this hand, BB pushed after two limpers with the bigstack still in the hand. The initial LIMPER called him with 22. Are you kidding me??? Two points:

1) People at low buy-ins are idiots. Don't expect them to suddenly get smart on you and fold when they should.

2) Because they are idiots, FPS stuff like this is completely unnecessary.

[/ QUOTE ]

I just had 67 in the BB, blinds 15/30. I've got like 600 (I setted queens on the flop and the board four-straighted /images/graemlins/frown.gif ). Tons of limpers, flop comes 455 rainbow. SB checks, I check, guy to my right (don't remember if he was UTG or not, but trust me $5 + .5 people don't know if they're UTG) bets t120, and it folds around to me. This is an easy push for me because I know 99% no donkey bets out with a 5 there. He calls with KJo...

Almost forgot first rule of low-limit SnGs--I bet because they'll call.

yabastid

08-15-2005, 03:10 AM

[ QUOTE ]
I guess I'm the only one who thinks that the risk / reward ratio of this play is a little off. I know that your move is predicated on the presence of the small stack, but I'm not a big fan of it for that very reason. Putting your tournament at risk on the hopes that your opponent has a brain seems a little FPS to me actually.

Granted, button mini-raised, but he did it with the super bigstack still to act in the SB. He could've simply laid back and tried to fold ITM, so he obviously has SOMETHING. Why risk your tournament (essentially) on the hope that he folds?

[/ QUOTE ]

networkman

08-15-2005, 03:41 AM

[ QUOTE ]

1) People at low buy-ins are idiots. Don't expect them to suddenly get smart on you and fold when they should.

2) Because they are idiots, FPS stuff like this is completely unnecessary.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes, this is true.

I've seen it countless times at the 20's, villain limps or miniraises, someone pushes, villain calls with some marginal hand. I used to think 'why did'nt he just push?' but I don't waste my time trying to figure out why anymore.

Hendricks433

08-15-2005, 04:17 AM

Yeah, I never get suprised by what I get called by when I push their small raise. Q,8 a couple times, All sorts of Kings, Any Ace. I dont see too many pairs here except last game I remember seeing 99. I just dont make plays like that with 2,8 or some crap. Id have to have some good reads and itd probally be a higher buy in.

tigerite

08-15-2005, 05:23 AM

I've seen calls with crap like Q-10 offsuit from Villain in these spots. Usually to me with AK, or something, thinking surely he'll fold? Then he goes to spike a ten. That's at the $33's so god knows what their calling range is here.

durron597

08-15-2005, 06:29 AM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
i dont think theres any way this play can be right.

[/ QUOTE ]

really?

I think it's right against most good opponents.

[/ QUOTE ]

FYP

I'm starting to think that's what the logic should be here. I'm just tired of folding my way ITM... or having my AQ get sucked out on on the bubble, or being forced to push garbage with 5x-8x BB from EP...

tigerite

08-15-2005, 06:39 AM

This isn't the right attitude, come on man you're better than that.

FWIW, I fold here, pushing isn't awful, but I would really prefer to have him more covered, because I think he's calling too much to make it profitable otherwise.

durron597

08-15-2005, 06:53 AM

[ QUOTE ]
This isn't the right attitude, come on man you're better than that.

FWIW, I fold here, pushing isn't awful, but I would really prefer to have him more covered, because I think he's calling too much to make it profitable otherwise.

[/ QUOTE ]

I had a conversation with Adanthar about this. I really start to feel the pressure of the blinds when I try to wait for a real hand, and if I don't get one (and then win the showdown!) by 200/400 I'm basically in serious trouble.

Is this game just too low buyin to accumulate chips in ways other than playing pure ABC?

tigerite

08-15-2005, 07:03 AM

I don't panic. If the cards don't fall they don't fall. I think you're risking too much here for too little. Without a rock-solid read it's FPS I think.

se2schul

08-15-2005, 08:24 AM

[ QUOTE ]
I don't panic. If the cards don't fall they don't fall. I think you're risking too much here for too little. Without a rock-solid read it's FPS I think.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't think it's so much about waiting for good cards, but rather waiting for a good opportunity to steal or re-steal. In the low limit games, I'd only try what you did if I knew the villain were a good player (ie. capable of folding in such a situation). Many of the low-limit villains can't fold a hand once they've raised or shown any sign of strength. Keep that in mind before stealing or re-stealing.

I'd fold and get ready to steal at the next possible opportunity.

Nicok7

08-15-2005, 09:02 AM

I agree with Tigerite here, the risk is to wager your tournament, and people have already discussed why at low buy ins you might well be called, and the reward (assuming stars pays .5/.3/.2) isn't that great since:

- the move does no increase your chances to be first by much, with such a chip leader on the bubble
- the money prize between third and second isn't as big as between 3rd and 4th!

If you had a bit more (or were the chip leader), covering the raiser by enough to survive in case of failure, and if it was a higher buy in, thus increasing your fold equity (good players usually push if they are ready to go all in in the bubble because they know fold equity is more important than a showdown as a slight favorite), then the move would seem better.

Good idea, but wrong spot, it's one of these "get ITM first then pooosh" case I think.

Maulik

08-15-2005, 09:11 AM

I don't like it. I think you muck because you don't need to run a race. If its any other hand you're dominated. If its 99+, you're going to cry =[

He could be min-raising to switch it up too.

freemoney

08-15-2005, 11:26 AM

i usually have a real crappy image, ive been called so much by hands like A4 in this situation, problem is at the 109s they are smart enough to realize im doing it with basically any 2 but too dumb to realize they should still fold.

eastbay

08-15-2005, 11:37 AM

[ QUOTE ]
at the 109s they are smart enough to realize im doing it with basically any 2 but too dumb to realize they should still fold.

[/ QUOTE ]

Ain't that the truth.

I get called all the time in situations like this with, say, Q9, caller has K5, and he will say "I knew you had nothing."

eastbay

illegit

08-15-2005, 11:51 AM

Fold. I'm a fan of bubble aggression and weak/tight bubble play is bad IMO. But the short stack has 3 BB. And you have 10/11. If the stacks were closer in size I'd like this play a lot more.

Pokerscott

08-15-2005, 12:15 PM

I think there is a little bit of a problem with the assumptions of this play.

To make this play you SIMULTANEOUSLY have to assume:

-The button is GOOD enough to lay down just about anything to your all in
-The button is BAD enough not to realize he is donating 400 chips to you should you decide to push all-in and adjust his raising standards accordingly.

I think you either have to decide you have a good or bad opponent, but it is a bad idea to assume you have both.

Pokerscott

durron597

08-15-2005, 07:07 PM

[ QUOTE ]
If the stacks were closer in size I'd like this play a lot more.

[/ QUOTE ]

?????? That's exactly the motivation behind the play in the first place!

durron597

08-15-2005, 07:08 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I think there is a little bit of a problem with the assumptions of this play.

To make this play you SIMULTANEOUSLY have to assume:

-The button is GOOD enough to lay down just about anything to your all in
-The button is BAD enough not to realize he is donating 400 chips to you should you decide to push all-in and adjust his raising standards accordingly.

I think you either have to decide you have a good or bad opponent, but it is a bad idea to assume you have both.

Pokerscott

[/ QUOTE ]

This is an interesting point, but I am certain a lot of higher limit players are laying down here.

A different way to look at it is that he has to be tight enough to lay down yet loose enough to try to steal by miniraising. But this is a pretty typical level of tightness to have.

Jbrochu

08-15-2005, 07:58 PM

I've slowly worked my way up from the Stars $5 + .50's to the $30 + 3's and I've yet to find it necessary to make high risk moves like this at these levels. The mini-bet would also cause me to re-think this, because one thing you can be sure of at this level is that almost everybody has learned the pocket A's minibet move.

(That reminds me of how recently I decided to try some mini-raise bluffs when clearly my only move should be all-in or fold, in the hopes that people would fold even with good pot odds fearing I held a monster. This of course assumes your opponents read you as solid. Anyway, it was another terrible disaster of a "move making" experiment and I don't recommend it...)

I would almost rather try this move against a more standard 3x BB raise, since then you would be representing real strength. Of course, you can represent a hand all you want but even at the $33's I see people calling all-in with garbage too often to make me comfortable that this play could be +EV in the long run.

freemoney

08-15-2005, 08:05 PM

its not necessary to do something like this, finding right situations for this is important in optimizing your EV.

Jbrochu

08-15-2005, 08:32 PM

[ QUOTE ]
its not necessary to do something like this, finding right situations for this is important in optimizing your EV.

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree with you in principle.

I'm assuming that at some buy-in level that I have not yet reached, you "need" to make moves like this to mazimize your success, unless you're happy to win when the deck hits you and lose when it doesn't.

Not to say that there isn't room for moves at the $33's, I find places here and there (post oak bluff when I'm fairly sure my opponent was on a draw but I don't have anything either being my favorite move at the moment). I just believe that really high risk moves like this one are likely -EV because you're getting called here (assuming stars $22 and $33) often with a lot of hands that have no business calling yet are 2 to 1 favorites over you.

Of course, it could just be that I'm picking bad spots to try high risk moves and my opinion of the likely low success of this move is born more from my own poor skills in picking spots.

curtains

08-15-2005, 09:16 PM