feeling fishy with AJo

[The Goober]

UTG+2 is a bad calling who can be somewhat erratic. MP1 is about the same, only more passive. MP2 is a good TAG. Button and BB are mostly unknown.

Live 8/16 Hold'em (9 handed)

Preflop: Hero is UTG with A/images/graemlins/club.gif, J/images/graemlins/diamond.gif.
<font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, UTG+1 folds, UTG+2 calls, MP1 calls, MP2 calls, CO folds, Button calls, BB calls.

Flop: (12 SB) Q/images/graemlins/heart.gif, J/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 2/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="#0000FF">(6 players)</font>
BB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, UTG+2 calls, MP1 calls,<font color="#CC3333">MP2 raises</font>, Button folds, BB folds, Hero calls, UTG+1 calls, MP1 calls.

Turn: (10 BB) 9/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font>
Hero checks, <font color="#CC3333">UTG+2 bets</font>, MP1 folds, MP2 calls, Hero calls.

River: (13 BB) A/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
Hero checks, <font color="#CC3333">UTG+2 bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">MP2 raises</font>, Hero...

[JPbucco]

I call it and hope....

[slavic]

Folding AJo preflop is not terrible, neither is limping, and raising may be the worst choice if your game is normally this loose. [I realise I'm downplaying Ed's advice here but raising AJo normally gets calls from people you don't want to call, and drives out those you do]

Now on the flop we have a fairly large pot, and a whole lot of people in it that liked their hands enough. We partially hit the hand but, we have second pair without a redraw if we're behind. (well maybe if we hit exactly the ace we have in our hand on the river) I'd check fold the flop and just chalk it up to bad luck on the flop.

[ArturiusX]

I bet out the flop like never.

[Nick C]

Unless the TAG cold-calls preflop with a hand like A /images/graemlins/heart.gif K /images/graemlins/club.gif, I'm having a really hard time putting him on a hand we beat on the river. (Actually, though, I'm having a hard time putting him on a hand in general. A /images/graemlins/heart.gif Qx? A flopped flush he decided just to call with on the turn to keep you in?)

Who knows what the erratic player has? KT is one annoying possibility. I think I'm more worried about the TAG, though.

In any event, the chances of having both of them beat don't seem especially good to me.

[A_C_Slater]

[ QUOTE ]
I bet out the flop, like, never.

[/ QUOTE ]

FYP

And I agree.

I fold the flop.

Reverse implied odds and, like, stuff.

[ArturiusX]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I bet out the flop, like, never.

[/ QUOTE ]

FYP

And I agree.

I fold the flop.

Reverse implied odds and, like, stuff.

[/ QUOTE ]

I wouldn't say I'm always folding this flop, because depending on the action and the players I could be check-raising. But its a likely fold.

[brazilio]

Last time I saw an EV post about AJo and KJo, limping and raising were close, but raising was better in both situations by a small margin. As far as I remember, that could have been peter_rus from 15/30 stats. Even though this is loosey goosey live, I can't imagine raising is ever going to be so much less preferable as to make it a mistake to do so.

[The Goober]

[ QUOTE ]
I bet out the flop like never.

[/ QUOTE ]

My thinking on the flop was essentially that the pot is too big to give up just yet, and I didn't think check-calling made sense. More specifically, I thought that there was a reasonable chance that I had the best hand and that there were some weak draws that I could scare off - things like gutshots, or someone with a hand like 9/images/graemlins/club.gif9/images/graemlins/heart.gif. I also didn't want to be semi-bluffed out of this big pot.

Maybe that was all wishful thinking, though? With this many people, I suppose the chances are just too great that if I'm not already behind than I will be out-drawn. Do the nasty reverse implied odds make a check-fold correct, even getting a likely 14:1?

As it played out, when the TAG raised the flop, I put him on either a Q or a heart draw looking for a free card. I called his raise figuring I could figure out where I was on the turn - if he took a free card I could figure I was probably best, if he bet again, I would fold figuring I was drawing slim. UTG+2 screwed up my plans though, but the TAG's flat call on the turn left me thinking that his free-card attempt was foiled. No one mentioned the turn play - does everyone like the call here?

Finally, on the river I checked b/c I was hoping to CR UTG+2 (since in my perfect world, the TAG would muck his busted draw). When the TAG raised, I didn't know what to think...

[JacksonTens]

An early position raise just slaps out all the weaker Aces, don't do it. Plus second pair on the flop, don't rate the bet out, especially after they called you preflop. Surely they must have a hand to do this. You have to consider what your opponents are playing with, epecially in live (I only play live) as reads and tells are where half your money comes from (and when I say reads, no I don't mean Eddy KGB eating a F*&amp;%#! Oreo!)

JT /images/graemlins/spade.gif

[The Goober]

I'll post results, partially because of the other AJo UTG thread going on...

I agonized over the river decision and finally talked myself into a call - I was thinking (no, hoping) that the TAG had a strangely-played QJ and the donk coulda had almost anything. In retrospect, I don't think I like this call - I don't think I'm good 1/9 of the time here, but the hand played out so strangely that it's probably close.

MP2 turns over A/images/graemlins/heart.gif7/images/graemlins/heart.gif for the flopped nuts. Aside from his questional PF cold-call, I think he played this hand brilliantly - he raises the flop b/c there's a good chance I wouldn't bet the turn, then smooth-calls the turn to keep me in, and pops the river when it looks like I may have hit a big hand. Played like a fiddle.

And to those you say don't raise AJo UTG, this guy cold-called with A7s and he was by far one of the better players at the table. With 6 players to the flop, I'm sure people were calling with all kinds of crap that I'd like to be up against. The only hands that are likely to cold-call that have me dominated are AQo and the occasional AKo - everything else (at this table, anyways) is going to get 3-bet and I'll know to be cautious. I'll continue to take my chances.