Bluff

[sfer]

6 handed Borgata 40/80.

My image was was LAG in that I was raising lots of pots but the two hands I've shown down have been AK and KK, so that might have tapered off for those paying attention. It's late to the point that some people call it early so it's not clear whether they're paying attention. But I haven't played a hand in about an orbit and a half when this came up.

I open on the button with Jc Th, very stuck and steaming player calls in the SB which means he was dealt at least one card, BB who is Korean and just sat down and played few hands calls. 3 players, 6 SBs.

Flop is 9c 8s 4c. Checked to me and I bet, SB folds reluctantly, BB calls.

HU for 4 BBs. Turn is the 8h. BB checks and I bet, BB thinks for several beats and then stacks out 8 chips to call.

HU to the river for 6 BBs. River is the Ac. BB checks and I bet.

[mscags]

I like it if you think you can get him to fold a better hand often enough to make this profitable. I doubt your hand wins UI unless he has the bottom end of the straight draw.

[Chris Daddy Cool]

does a korean fold 54?

though i think koreans tend to fold QJ and KQ to make it work.

[surfdoc]

You absolutely have to bet the river. There is no way you want to let QJ take down the pot. I think a 9 gives you action on the flop, an 8 checkraises the turn, so as far as the flop cards you are left with the 4. The pot is big enough that you have to take a crack at it.

[sfer]

[ QUOTE ]
I like it if you think you can get him to fold a better hand often enough to make this profitable. I doubt your hand wins UI unless he has the bottom end of the straight draw.

[/ QUOTE ]

You don't say.

[colgin]

[ QUOTE ]
I like it if you think you can get him to fold a better hand often enough to make this profitable.

[/ QUOTE ]

Ay, there's the rub.

[BottlesOf]

I like it. (The comment and the line)

[colgin]

Sfer,

I did ome back of the envelop math (which given my math skills probabbly has a few mistakes).

I put (somewhat arbitrarily) BB on the following range of hands that either beat or tie you (I am excluding ones you beat as I thin those are EV neutral here since he won't call): 54, 64, 55 - 77, AT, A7 - A2, KQ, KJ, QJ and JT. I excluded certain hands based on the action.

I counted 150 combos of pair hands versus 49 high card hands that beat or tie you that you would like to see fold.

Assuming villain will not fold any pair, I think your bluff onlyneeds to get the other category of non-pair hands to fold around 60% of the time for the bluff to be about break-even. If you discount some of the Ace-rag hands I listed above as possible holdings (which I think would be reasonable) then I think things look quite a bit better for you. I like the bet.

[Haupt_234]

Nice. Given his action and the board, a check on the river would just be giving him an early christmas present.

The only hands I can think of that he might play this way that beat you are 77,55,33,22, and A4, and those times are too slim to warrant a river check.

Haupt_234

[PokerBob]

sure

[sfer]

I win the pot sometimes with this. River checkraises sometimes win you 2 bets. I feel sexier than thou.

[PokerBob]

[ QUOTE ]
I feel sexier than thou.

[/ QUOTE ]

i am not one to begrudge another his sexy, why you begrudge me mine? /images/graemlins/confused.gif sexy for all, i say. let us all feel the sexy.